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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Hopefully the background signals for next winter are for high pressure to the south with a strong Icelandic low pressure bringing much milder weather than  the norm, for DJF then the actual outcome will more than likely be the reverse as in this winter  which was supposed TO have a much high probability to feature HLB in DJF 

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!! We have a greeny high cluster in the extended  with downstream deep nw euro trough ...........

 hang on ........

2 members from 51 .......

is that it ??

sorry ..........

I will take that chance, no towell throwing from me, never will! Toys maybe a different matter as I cant find them anymore!  It is not over till late winter is over or early spring depending how u look at it. Seasons seem to be getting later in the year to me. Extra time may be needed.

Have to love this forum. So many opinions, all interesting bar the odd mild merchant. Looking forward to some fierce thunderstorms this summer as the last had but. . .

NOT YET

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
34 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's incredible how wrong the forecasts/teleconnection projections have been , when we are seeing the complete and utter opposite of their predictions. 

Something has gone massively wrong somewhere.

Please let. Me. Know wHAT went wrong when u find out. Its been worse than poor it's been abysmal

Edited by snowfish1
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

still expecting HLB to feature in spring, been more snow in spring than any of the recent winter months the last few years. Thre Scottish ski season about to be wiped out, till about mid march then watch the big snows arrive in the cairngorms etc that's how the British winters appear to be heading, starting in spring time ❄️⛄⛸️

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
37 minutes ago, East801 said:

Hopefully we can break some Feb warmth records, very possible. Early taste of Spring and a welcomed closure to a huge winter of let downs.

Looking forward to warm and sunny days now, goodbye winter 2018/19.

Ecmwf is on its own really, most of GFS members point towards some very wet weather next week, especially up in Scotland. February could end with rainfall well above average here.

Gfs p was holding onto a drier evolution, but it too has given in on the 18z

gfs-2-240.png

gfs-0-240.png

gens-0-2-276.png

gens-0-1-276.png

gfs-2-288.png

gfs-0-288.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Woo hooooo, and we finish with a little cooler blip from the west deep in fi. Really worth staying up for. 

gfs-1-384 (1).png

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23 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

still expecting HLB to feature in spring, been more snow in spring than any of the recent winter months the last few years. Thre Scottish ski season about to be wiped out, till about mid march then watch the big snows arrive in the cairngorms etc that's how the British winters appear to be heading, starting in spring time ❄️⛄⛸️

Not this time Sleety.

Likely a mild end to winter then onto a normal setup for spring (no cold). Possibility of a few frosts in March with a HP setup as the last of the cold is shunted east (again). 

I see it very clearly. My forecasts improve with age you know.

Edited by DCee
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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
8 minutes ago, DCee said:

Not this time Sleety.

Likely a mild end to winter then onto a normal setup for spring (no cold). Possibility of a few frosts in March with a  HP setup as the last of the cold is shunted east (again). 

I see it very clearly. My forecasts improved with age you know.

Really a few frosts? Is that intuition lol. Like saying July might be hot.

Edited by icykev
only a possibility mind you
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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland

Screenshot_2019-02-14-00-56-11-1.thumb.png.3f891d3e185533f4a9d595778641da4d.png

It would not take a lot from here. A few tweaks. Heights rising as mjo suggests, jet stream looks further west and North. Tad more please!

Confusing . Low to our east needs to get to Croatia or Italy and bring a BFTE high behind above said low to support UK high and lybian low to break nw joining with above mentioned low ✌

Currently about four thousand miles away. But getting closer

Not far off as the unspoken may possibly say

Screenshot_2019-02-14-01-41-56.thumb.png.f7def8b1e7bebbca551386239082ca63.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL

Personally think March will be Colder than average simply by law of averages, the p/v will calm down by March (always does) and the High over the uk then morel likely to spread North with the remaining energy in the Atlantic moving SE undercutting the High. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

It has been an odd Winter with strong blocking and cold signals in FI never really coming to fruition.

I thought we were going to have a late Winter cold spell but now the opposite looks to be the case with the high pressure never getting further N than the mid latitudes and badly oriented for any cold.

On the plus side the days are getting longer and we can start looking forward to Spring.

It should very pleasant in the final 3d of the month, perhaps the new thread should be the search for Spring though we may not have to look far.

We will probably get stonking Northerly or Easterly in Spring proper knowing our luck. 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
5 hours ago, DCee said:

Not this time Sleety.

Likely a mild end to winter then onto a normal setup for spring (no cold). Possibility of a few frosts in March with a HP setup as the last of the cold is shunted east (again). 

I see it very clearly. My forecasts improve with age you know.

Why you think that, current evidence suggest the uk is more likely to see bitterly cold weather for the time of year  and snow in March than in the winter months, we have had two very cold marches  in the last 5 years, and latest gfs run hinting at something changing as we head into March again, well fingers crossed anyway

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
8 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No - lets have a cold showery wet summer please - no oppressive heat.

How oppressive can it get in saddleworth? I’d have thought not too often like it can in the capital (genuine question) though i guess it’s all relative.

totally agree though - I hate the oppressive heat. Worse part of summer - I had to invest in an air con unit last year. 

Edited by CanadianCoops
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Interesting ending to ECM anyone for a X polar flow attempt

Couple of GEFS interested.

anim_tup5.gif

gensnh-8-1-348.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

A slightly better ECM run this morning.  Cold gets into Poland at least!

as I’ve been saying for days, it’s a v slow journey which is why I can’t muster any enthusiasm for it. the ext ens have been solid for days on an amplified hemispheric upper pattern. We have been placed under the nw euro ridge. the op just about gets its hands on the period by day 10.  So it finally gets a tad more interesting as we see what the higher res ops do with these features. They won’t just stay in place with no twiddling about the edges as the eps mean has been showing. 

So the next few days renew some interest as we see what the fi gem, gfs and ec ops do with this set up. There will be some more ‘attractive’ runs popping up. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I'm looking forward now to the cold hunt..onwards into spring thread!!..can anyone give me an update on the background signals for April / May..are they still looking good?

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed

This mornings runs offer a slight glimmer of hope that the high pressure might position itself at least so we can get a continental feed of air nothing cold but at least clear and frosty. I was always suspicious of the eastward advancement and strength of the trough in the mid Atlantic, were now seeing it back westwards. Can it continue? we will have to wait.

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