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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
Just now, Mattwolves said:

The ecm 12s op was pretty rank tbh Oliver,  but as Feb as just pointed out, the EPS look a little more encouraging 

Next ECM could be entirely different though when it comes out just like the gfs which was showing south westerlies on the 22nd and is now showing south easterlies

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
3 minutes ago, Purga said:

LOL!

image.thumb.png.46212454e8722ea00107868fa3233730.png

You've got to see the funny side to it!

It’s like looking at the chart in flipping July!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
3 minutes ago, Don said:

It’s like looking at the chart in flipping July!

Or even January!

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Come on, peeps,  when there's bugger - all cold, there's bugger - all topic?

Let's pretend..?

Hunt for a 

download-1.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Here's my towel:

image.thumb.jpg.98a4127dd7658bf1667e236e0dd470bd.jpg

No point chasing this any longer the outlook looks very poor for cold from today's model output across the suites, and I can't see it backtracking. 

I will post some thoughts on the winter thread about what went wrong in a few days time, for now only to say the best we got to show for all the signals was a cold period probably due to the SSW latter half Jan, which was by no means spectacular synoptics but did at least deliver a significant snow event for parts of the country.  And I'm quite well aware that many parts of the country have seen practically nothing.  

Some really great posts, humour and analysis on here over the winter, thanks to everyone for those!  I'll be back with some thoughts about summer when I have had a chance to formulate them.  

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21 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Right so, 

basically, gfs has now switched at the 18z and is showing high pressure establishing itself in Northern Europe into eastern Scandinavia over the Baltic which is good! Winds begin to filter in from northern Russia over Eastern Europe and then the winds start to come in from a south easterly direction for us which is directly from where the at cold air will be sitting, however, this would only give us clear  and cold weather if it is still cold if it actually reaches us so nothing particularly exciting but i will be watching this high closely to see if it moves a bit west because if it does then we could have our last shot at cold and maybe go out with a bang to the end of this awful winter so far! Just waiting to see what ecm shows and then we’ll see. (Obviously this can be ignored probably as this is over a week away still so absolutely no reason why this should not change completely to westerlies!)

How are you seeing this gfs 18z before anyone else can I ask?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 hour ago, Leon1 said:

Just wondering, what does this all mean for the weather in the Alps, worried the snow will melt at this rate by the time I go (a week).

Although it’s warm the dew points are on the low side . It’s not a humid warm tropical maritime flow.

You’d be surprised just how well snow can hold up with lowish dew points .  Where abouts are you going ?

Most resorts in the Alps  further east from here did see some fresh snow recently .  Great  conditions here in the Pyrenees at my nearest resort in Cauterets with 4 metres on the higher slopes.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
23 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Come on, peeps,  when there's bugger - all cold, there's bugger - all topic?

Let's pretend..?

longest model thread in history? 457 pages of no snow (north)

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Here's my towel:

image.thumb.jpg.98a4127dd7658bf1667e236e0dd470bd.jpg

No point chasing this any longer the outlook looks very poor for cold from today's model output across the suites, and I can't see it backtracking. 

I will post some thoughts on the winter thread about what went wrong in a few days time, for now only to say the best we got to show for all the signals was a cold period probably due to the SSW latter half Jan, which was by no means spectacular synoptics but did at least deliver a significant snow event for parts of the country.  And I'm quite well aware that many parts of the country have seen practically nothing.  

Some really great posts, humour and analysis on here over the winter, thanks to everyone for those!  I'll be back with some thoughts about summer when I have had a chance to formulate them.  

It does indeed Mike, but you know as well as any that it could flip inside the next few days. Hopefully if it does you will be back with a bit of your expertise. Anyway towels don't count, you must be seen to be waving a white flag, hankies may do! Either way Mike, thanks for your top notch analysis this winter, I'm sure a few have learnt a lot

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
4 minutes ago, zjc said:

How are you seeing this gfs 18z before anyone else can I ask?

Sorry I’ve been a bit of an idiot. 12z I meant. Don’t know where I got that from

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Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
32 minutes ago, Purga said:

Virtually no runs going below -5 at all now, let alone -10

image.thumb.png.594ba9cc6bd3ef0b5fdee79524160244.png

All cold stragglers wiped out....☹️

 

 

Ohhh Christ that is bad... when I saw that it felt like a punch to the heart. Why!

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Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
Just now, Purga said:

Is mother nature trying to tell us NW cold lovers something?

image.thumb.png.ad9f77fcec503882167e1a001e39a5a1.png

Fantastic! What are the chances of that? Mother Nature really hates us this winter

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Posted
  • Location: Droitwich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: Droitwich

So just some quick questions:

1- Was it not the case that the crocus’s/ daffodils/ cherry blossom were out early/ mid feb last year as it was quite mild??

2-Then what happened at the end of that month/ March?? 

3- When on the models did last February’s/ March BFTE start to appear??

4- Surely we can’t second guess what the weather will actually do??

Im not saying anything is going to happen but it’s happened before so why not again just with a different date!!

Regards

MNR

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
3 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Fantastic! What are the chances of that? Mother Nature really hates us this winter

Mother Nature says to us coldies ‘You had your Beast from the East last year, now it’s the mildies turn you greedy so and so’s!’

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
3 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

So just some quick questions:

1- Was it not the case that the crocus’s/ daffodils/ cherry blossom were out early/ mid feb last year as it was quite mild??

2-Then what happened at the end of that month/ March?? 

3- When on the models did last February’s/ March BFTE start to appear??

4- Surely we can’t second guess what the weather will actually do??

Im not saying anything is going to happen but it’s happened before so why not again just with a different date!!

Regards

MNR

Yeh, it makes sense. Last years BFTE was on the back of a SSW in early February, followed by a quick trop response though. So to get something of that magnitude we really would have to strike gold! 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think to be realistic we need to rule out any change for the next ten days .

The high is likely to just hang around unable to get far enough north .  The MJO is looking messy . The models have it in phase 8 as of today but then weaken it before it doubles back into a stronger phase 8.

The issue all winter is just how much effect this will have but at this point it’s really the only thing out there that could shuffle things up .

If there’s a response to that it’s unlikely to effect things until the last few days of the month and early March .

I’ m not a great lover of March snow as it always leaves you with that if only feeling , unless that is you get something outlandish like last year but I think that’s very unlikely .

Certainly too early though to rule out some further snow and some colder snaps .

Agree with last sentence, northerlies can pack a punch well into April, and often appear suddenly - yes a one or two day cold snow wonder often occurs, but it can be a potent cold attack. Indeed northerlies become more likely in Spring than in winter - those spring switcharounds. Late March 2008 a very good example, after a preety snowless very mild winter for most.

Back to the here and now, no major changes over next 10 days, atlantic makes a weak assault over the weekend and early next week, then the high resurges again back to where it is now, with signs that it will ridge north into southern scandi perhaps pulling in some cooler continental air in time - but it will be a slow process. As we end winter, a higher chance we might finally see more favourable position of heights further north to pull in something colder.

Right now it feels like late December again, when we had a very slow quiet pattern, eating up too much time preventing anything cold and wintry happening. To have it once wasn't great, but yet again.. Lets hope come May- August we don't look back and say if only we had the synoptics of winter 18/19... and the synoptics then in the winter instead!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Even though last years fun late Feb and March didn’t greatly effect me here it will live long in the memory just watching the event unfold for the UK.

What really stood out was the depth of cold and the windchill and the max temps on several days were incredibly low for the time of year .

Indeed bizarely it was the depth of cold which in effect shortened the longevity as it spilled much further west than you’d normally see helping to develop deeper low pressure as it hit the warmer seas west and sw of the UK and Ireland . 

So instead of something less intense and more likely to slide we saw that deeper low moving ne .

Regardless the level of cold was unprecedented . It does show what can happen when you have the stars aligning perfectly .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening ...cold hunters don't look.....but some fun and games in March...watch this space.....

h850t850eu-2.webp

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Let's enjoy the upcoming mild and settled spell.  This winter has been a bust!  Let's drink to another warm summer.  At least summer warmth gets delivered regularly.

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