Cold hunt - models and chat

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Dead? It's not dead..it's merely resting!

Resting Edd!! This is a race horse with a broken leg, basically in trouble 

[IDO]

WOW!

(click for gif)

Edited February 13, 2019 by IDO

[Drifter]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

WOW!

(click for gif)

Starting to look like we could challenge mildest February on record instead of looking for a cold spell.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

WOW!

It's Shergar!

[Lampostwatcher]

3 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Well you can add my Virtual towell to the pile of broken dreams, hype and promises. What this Winter has taught us all is background signals and expert forecasts mean nothing. Nature is its own thing that dosent follow a script. So next year if it shows mild and a heatwave expect blizzards and the next Ice age lol. Hope you all have an amazing Spring, Summer, Autumn. That's all folks until next Winter and the journey starts again.

See you later after the 18z

[Don]

Just now, Drifter said:

Starting to look like we could challenge mildest February on record instead of looking for a cold spell.

It will have to beat 7.9C to achieve that, so probably unlikely.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

A zonal reset needed?

These sypnotics would be great in summer, you just no this pattern can't last till then. Zonal reset would be better, at least we could get some colder maritime shots. 

[seabreeze86]

If we can't have cold I will take a early spring this would be very pleasant and mild especially East of high ground 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

If we can't have cold I will take a early spring this would be very pleasant and mild especially East of high ground 

These patterns often stick for some considerable time, once established.  This is looking like no exception.

Edited February 13, 2019 by Don

[Leon1]

12 minutes ago, Don said:

These patterns often stick for some considerable time, once established.  This is looking like no exception.

Shame it's not in the middle of summer otherwise I would be looking forward to it.

[Weather-history]

15 minutes ago, Don said:

These patterns often stick for some considerable time, once established.  This is looking like no exception.

It will be gone in time for Easter, May Bank Holidays and the start of summer......

Edited February 13, 2019 by Weather-history

[stodge]

Evening all

After the awful morning runs, the 12Z output much better going forward with a strong signal for anticyclonic conditions becoming established in the last week of the month and approaching the turn of the month. Position and orientation of the HP a very long way from being resolved but possibilities for frost and that long-missed item, fog. Don't worry about the 850s if we go get an inversion regime - it's a pity we aren't seeing this in mid December.

Could we get the HP to the north or east - certainly options on the table at this stage.

[summer blizzard]

Oh boy.. if that 12z Euro were just one month later then days 8-10 could only be described as spectacular.

 

[snowsummer]

On 12/02/2019 at 17:02, Mattwolves said:

So the cold plunge spreading west on the 6z is now transferring SE on the 12z. With some slightly colder uppers pushing down from the NW, what a difference 6 hours makes, just watch the 18s bring it further west again. 

Trying to post on here, keeps saying hidden and coming up in pink??? Cant even send message to mods to find out why? Any help please. Oh its working now!

Edited February 13, 2019 by snowsummer
Post worked!

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

After the awful morning runs, the 12Z output much better going forward with a strong signal for anticyclonic conditions becoming established in the last week of the month and approaching the turn of the month. Position and orientation of the HP a very long way from being resolved but possibilities for frost and that long-missed item, fog. Don't worry about the 850s if we go get an inversion regime - it's a pity we aren't seeing this in mid December.

Could we get the HP to the north or east - certainly options on the table at this stage.

Good grief frost and fog going into march!!! Thinking that's not what anyone would want to be honest.Id rather go sunny and mild-warm tbh and dry.just my preference but I'm all done with this winter or lack of it!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, snowsummer said:

Trying to post on here, keeps saying hidden and coming up in pink??? Cant even send message to mods to find out why? Any help please

restriction, usually means a warning point, has to be checked by a mod, if deemed appropriate, it will come on, could take upto hour

Edited February 13, 2019 by I remember Atlantic 252

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, snowsummer said:

Trying to post on here, keeps saying hidden and coming up in pink??? Cant even send message to mods to find out why? Any help please

 

1 minute ago, snowsummer said:

Trying to post on here, keeps saying hidden and coming up in pink??? Cant even send message to mods to find out why? Any help please

Youve got me stumped, you have just replied to a post of mine, so I assume that's working. Sure one of the kind folk on here will be willing to help, or if any mod is available

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

 

Youve got me stumped, you have just replied to a post of mine, so I assume that's working. Sure one of the kind folk on here will be willing to help, or if any mod is available

with me it was restriction pre mod check, that post went up 4 mins ago, but maybe by a mod, earlier than that by member

[Don]

31 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

It will be gone in time for Easter, May Bank Holidays and the start of summer......

You would think so, but who knows with our climate these days!?

[feb1991blizzard]

at 240 the eps look slightly better than the 0z, awaiting the inevitable post telling us that they didn't come to anything in the extended though.

[oliverek7]

Right so, 

basically, gfs has now switched at the 18z and is showing high pressure establishing itself in Northern Europe into eastern Scandinavia over the Baltic which is good! Winds begin to filter in from northern Russia over Eastern Europe and then the winds start to come in from a south easterly direction for us which is directly from where the at cold air will be sitting, however, this would only give us clear  and cold weather if it is still cold if it actually reaches us so nothing particularly exciting but i will be watching this high closely to see if it moves a bit west because if it does then we could have our last shot at cold and maybe go out with a bang to the end of this awful winter so far! Just waiting to see what ecm shows and then we’ll see. (Obviously this can be ignored probably as this is over a week away still so absolutely no reason why this should not change completely to westerlies!)

Edited February 13, 2019 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[Methuselah]

Come on, peeps,  when there's bugger - all cold, there's bugger - all topic?

Let's pretend..?

[Purga]

Virtually no runs going below -5 at all now, let alone -10

All cold stragglers wiped out....

 

 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Purga said:

Virtually no runs going below -5 at all now, let alone -10

All cold stragglers wiped out....

 

 

That’s what I call a mild outlook!  Will the last one to leave this thread please turn out the light

Edited February 13, 2019 by Don

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Right so, 

basically, gfs has now switched at the 18z and is showing high pressure establishing itself in Northern Europe in the middle of Germany and Scandinavia basically to the east by the 21st. Winds begin to filter in from northern Russia over Eastern Europe and then the winds start to come in from a south easterly direction for us which is directly from where the at cold air will be sitting, however, this would only give us clear  and cold weather if it is still cold if it actually reaches us so nothing particularly exciting but i will be watching this high closely to see if it moves north because if it does then we could have our last shot at cold and maybe go out with a bang to the end of this awful winter so far! Just waiting to see what ecm shows and then we’ll see. (Obviously this can be ignored probably as this is over a week away still so absolutely no reason why this should not change completely to westerlies!)

The ecm 12s op was pretty rank tbh Oliver,  but as Feb as just pointed out, the EPS look a little more encouraging. 

Edit. On the other hand looking at what purga has just posted, are pretty abysmal 

Edited February 13, 2019 by Mattwolves