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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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oliverek7 Community Regular

oliverek7

Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The signs may have been dropped on the phestoric gfs12s, but looking much more rosey on the para 12s, and Yeh if we can just get the high to migrate N/NE, could be a game changer

Atmospheric gods needs to be with us. We have been hunting for proper cold all winter, we deserve this!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

...or we could just go with the CMA 12z:

image.thumb.jpg.f2e8d66e2a6045a30f1bb8b7f0b7de3c.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.6a7dc1a45ecba5703863edb8bedb66ca.jpg

You've done a great job of polishing this turd of a winter..hats off to you.:hi:

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

...or we could just go with the CMA 12z:

image.thumb.jpg.f2e8d66e2a6045a30f1bb8b7f0b7de3c.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.6a7dc1a45ecba5703863edb8bedb66ca.jpg

That's a beaut Mike, every cold hunters exotic dream!! Ooooooohhhhhh yeeeesssssss!! 

2ceg951_th.jpg

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted
25 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

...or we could just go with the CMA 12z:

image.thumb.jpg.f2e8d66e2a6045a30f1bb8b7f0b7de3c.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.6a7dc1a45ecba5703863edb8bedb66ca.jpg

Marvelous now..

image.thumb.png.efc7eb7f3a2c52d3242c1652d87eede8.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

You've done a great job of polishing this turd of a winter..hats off to you.

It has been a trying 2.5 months to be honest.  To start off with a weak tropospheric vortex, promising seasonal and sub seasonal model predictions, then get clear signs of a SSW, then a really strong long lasting reversal of winds in the strat, 2 (third upcoming) forays into favourable MJO territory, and then get the square root of diddly squat sticks in the craw!  

Compare winter 13-14, never any chance of anything.  This year the carrot has been dangled but always out of reach.  Ho hum, every winter different and all the time we learn...

Except. The SSW did result it a colder spell in late Jan, and was a factor in delivering a spectacular snow event and really cold temperatures ~ 1 Feb - only for certain areas of the country though.  But the promise was for so much more.  

One last roll of the dice, folks!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
2 minutes ago, Don said:

Even now, the long range models want to carry on teasing!

It certainly has been a carry on..Kenneth agrees!:crazy:

ooh-matron-kenneth-williams-carry-on-bouvier-des-flandres-puppies-for-sale-uk.jpg

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 hours ago, Sweatyman said:

i refer you to our 1 and only 'snowfall' of this 'winter'

20190123_084838.jpg

Did you manage to get to work?

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Just have to hope that although the op has jumped off over last 2 runs that a few more ensembles jump on board on this run.

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igloo Enthusiast

igloo

Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
Posted (edited)

it has been grim viewing over the past week if things dont change  soon even the European  ski resorts  will suffer  with +12 uppers heading in to central europe next week could well be none left for easter and its so bad even the scandinavian resorts will start to thaw

Edited by igloo
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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted

Well after an awful display of so called football I was hoping not to be greeted to charts

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted (edited)

Clusters tonight... all the way to D12 - rock solid Sceuro high - not necessarily mild but miles away from snow for the UK, probably awesome for Greece. Would signal an extreme heatwave if in July. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019021212_300.

Edited by Man With Beard
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

18z para looking interesting

gfs-1-252.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Clusters tonight... all the way to D12 - rock solid Sceuro high - not necessarily mild but miles away from snow for the UK, probably awesome for Greece. Would signal an extreme heatwave if in July. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019021212_300.

Cluster 3 not bad by D15, cluster 1 even worse by D15 though - looking zonal!

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Gets flattened late on.

Yeh, was just gonna say, it's lost its way big time, seems a million miles away from the 12s

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

18z para looking interesting

gfs-1-252.png

We just need to move the uk much further east into that purple blob..that would be interesting!

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