Cold hunt - models and chat

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended keeps the mild air coming with heavy rain moving into the north drier further south

 

[oliverek7]

20 minutes ago, E17boy said:

DEAR MR HIGH PRESSURE 

I am writing today to you to express my total discuss having found out that you have taken up residence in my end of season showroom.

As you know I have not had a good season so far and was hoping to go out with a bang but you are rubbing salt on the wounds.

It also has come to my notice that the heating has gone up thanks to your room mate Southwesterly and this has caused a lot of my clients to complain and even throw towels and toys at me.

Bearing in mind you had a good season last year I let you stay for a good few months and customers were satisfied because of your heat. Now is the wrong time for you my freeze sales have taken a slump. My usual supplier Mr Siberia is unable to  export the ingredients including minus 15 to 20 upper air temperatures and severe windchill as you have sat and blocked the way. 

Now we have had a good relationship last year when you headed in the right direction and I had exceptional end of season profits. 

In view of this I have had good offers from Mr Greenland and Mr Scandinavia who are quite happy to occupy you for the next few weeks so I can have have a chance to boost my end of season sales and win my customers back. My partners ECM, GFS, ICON and CFS will be more than happy to lift you and roll you out there on their new models. 

I hope we can keep our good relationship and you will hand in your tenancy notice in the coming few days, 

Kind regards WINTER SEASON

Top quality letter to high. This shows off the ‘banter’ part of this discussion. I think I will also write to someone who has been bothering me lately and who is responsible for our overwhelmingly frustrating model changes from day to day. That is, North American low

Mr NA low, could you please keep yourself from forming over the US because you are inviting papa polar vortex to be sucked in from the north so could you please refrain from doing that to keep the jet stream stable as he’s having a bit of a rough time at the moment, we made need to give him counselling due to the waves you have wriggled up him, if you could then prevent yourself from forming to allow mr Greenland high to move in and rent a spot for at least a week or so in Scandinavia that would be much appreciated, he will be able to build on that too if he’s left on his own. This would allow the jet stream to weaken and power down after such a tough few weeks so he would also approve greatly. Thank you for taking your time to read this. I will send this out via the atmospheric mail service to all highs and lows around the globe to cooperate with each other to give us what we deserve. Thank you and goodbye

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Thanks for the reply.  It would be good to hear Stewart/Lorenzo’s latest views.

Can't help thinking one of them or chiono would be on if anything was afoot.

[Wilxy]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Fitting last day of winter!!  FV3 T384:

 

 

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended keeps the mild air coming with heavy rain moving into the north drier further south

 

Thanks for that good news Gavin..just another miserable 16 days of this diabolical meteorological winter to go..the agony will soon be over!!..

[damianslaw]

On 06/02/2019 at 19:52, bluearmy said:

I think we head to where we were around third week jan come mid feb. Do we then get proper height rises to our north or just general higher heights to deflect the jet se 

I mentioned a while ago how the effects of this years SSW might draw parallel with those of 2006 and 2013, both produced easterlies nearing at least 6 weeks later, in the case of 2006 mid March after a northerly interlude, in 2013, more than 2 months later... mid Feb is 6 weeks after this years SSW, so an early March easterly/north easterly might occur. There is still a disconnect with the stratosphere and trop at the moment. Trough disruption and jet running more southerly could be the output, with heights finally triggered NW - something we haven't seen all winter - would not surprise me in the least to see this happen at the start of Spring - too late for many, but not too late for some late season decent cold and snow.

In the meantime - watching paint dry again, with high pressure ruling the roost and little to discuss - just like late Dec and early Jan. We've had the high pressure this winter and a weak atlantic, but its stubbornly always been in the worst place for cold! After 15 years on this forum, this winter has by far been the most frustrating of all with such fine margins between notable cold and mild, in most winters the margins have been much wider usually in favour of mild with a rampant atlantic, with a few exceptions.

Edited February 12, 2019 by damianslaw

[northumberland snowman]

Orange line is the trendsetter... Winter is over guys what a shame after so much hype early doors. I'm now looking forward to some warmth.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Northumberland snowman said:

Orange line is the trendsetter... Winter is over guys what a shame after so much hype early doors. I'm now looking forward to some warmth.

Could that be any worse for winter?  Not really!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Thanks for that good news Gavin..just another miserable 16 days of this diabolical meteorological winter to go..the agony will soon be over!!..

That's not Gavin, thats Summer Sun? Gavin is on two isn't he, Gavin Partridge

[oliverek7]

3 minutes ago, Northumberland snowman said:

Orange line is the trendsetter... Winter is over guys what a shame after so much hype early doors. I'm now looking forward to some warmth.

Why give up? That could easily change! The fact that 80% of weather models forecasted easterlies in late January, the 20% won out demonstrates this. Majority may not always be true! 

[XtremeUKWeather]

1 minute ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Why give up? That could easily change! The fact that 80% of weather models forecasted easterlies in late January, the 20% won out demonstrates this. Majority may not always be true! 

Yh true those GEFS charts been changing every 6 hours recently 

6z had a clear signs of possible colder signs gone on 12z may reappeear on 0z/18z

[Rambo]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

That's not Gavin, thats Summer Sun? Gavin is on two isn't he, Gavin Partridge

He's still Gavin lol

[oliverek7]

1 minute ago, XtremeUKWeather said:

Yh true those GEFS charts been changing every 6 hours recently 

6z had a clear signs of possible colder signs gone on 12z may reappeear on 0z/18z

I’m remaining optimistic, a slight shift north with that high pressure could be the jackpot

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

That's not Gavin, thats Summer Sun? Gavin is on two isn't he, Gavin Partridge

Not this again!!!!   -    They are both Gavins, they both have Netweather accounts, they both have T.W.O accounts, Summer Sun and Gavin P on here, Gavin D and Gavin P on TWO, Gavin P (not Summer Sun) is the guy who (could call him semi-pro as he does it for a living now)  who does video forecasts.

Edited February 12, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[MATTWOLVES 3]

16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Thanks for that good news Gavin..just another miserable 16 days of this diabolical meteorological winter to go..the agony will soon be over!!..

Eyes down for the 18s frosty, especially the para! Somethings afoot I tell ya!

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not this again!!!!   -    They are both Gavins, they both have Netweather accounts, they both have T.W.O accounts, Summer Sun and Gavin P on here, Gavin D and Gavin P on TWO, Gavin P (not Summer Sun) is the guy who (could call him semi-pro as he does it for a living now)  who does video forecasts.

Must be all the snow, you know...overexposure can cause short-term amnesia!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Must be all the snow, you know...overexposure can cause short-term amnesia!

What snow?

[feb1991blizzard]

I was just thinking the eps must be kieron again as no one has posted them, but now knocker says they are a thing of beauty so they must be Kieron.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I was just thinking the eps must be kieron again as no one has posted them, but now knocker says they are a thing of beauty so they must be Kieron.

Not worth the pain to view then if Knocker has said that!

[offerman]

Can't complain about this winter had snow fix recently and glad many others did too, had a lot of it 27cm. Just happy to get one mega fall . More would be good but nice to have seen some. 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Not worth the pain to view then if Knocker has said that!

Its a really strong ridge on the D10-15 but no euro trough, would be good to see the individual days 13,14 and 15 though just to see if it is heading in a decent direction.

[Don]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a really strong ridge on the D10-15 but no euro trough, would be good to see the individual days 13,14 and 15 though just to see if it is heading in a decent direction.

Just need to get that euro trough that we had during the 2nd half of January!

[Summer Sun]

The ECM op has good support tonight on the London mean. Quite remarkable really just how close it is for the full 10-days

Bit more mixed in Scotland with the chance of some short cooler spells

26 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

That's not Gavin, thats Summer Sun? Gavin is on two isn't he, Gavin Partridge

Edited February 12, 2019 by Summer Sun

[Mike Poole]

Some thoughts as we approach the last sixth of winter.  Yes, you read that right!  There is still a sizeable portion of winter remaining, which you might not believe reading some posts in here!

A while since we looked at the stratosphere, zonal wind plot from GFS

Vortex strength massively increasing at 10 hPa now, won't affect stuff down here an iota in near future, but, ECM day 10 zonal winds 

down here in the trop weak westerly on average, a hangover from the SSW?  Like 2013?, leaves room for easterly flow in places in the NH, it's a question of where?  

This is where the MJO comes in, will the amplified pattern be in the right place for a decent block to our north?  FV3 12z shows the possible.  

ECM mean and spread at T240:

Just need the ridge further west, spread suggests that is possible for some members.  So all in all, I reckon the last chance saloon end of the month cold blast stands at a probability of 30 %.  Embrace or shake a stick at - up to you!

PS, on the Berlin zonal wind chart, at the equator you can see the next East QBO descending nicely from the top, will we welcome it in November?

 

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

27 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

I’m remaining optimistic, a slight shift north with that high pressure could be the jackpot

The signs may have been dropped on the phestoric gfs12s, but looking much more rosey on the para 12s, and Yeh if we can just get the high to migrate N/NE, could be a game changer

Edited February 12, 2019 by Mattwolves