Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

It looks quite similar to the 6z still? Only thing better was the control going very cold I think

Look at the mean though on the actual chart, as i said, we either need the ridge a lot further North or a lot further West, actually though looking at a lot of the runs, if it wasn't for whats gone before and so late in winter, i would be confident further down the line with this WAA into the pole.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
Just now, seabreeze86 said:

The big stand out on the GEFS is dry, Mid latitude high prominent as has been for some time now

Screenshot_20190212-174559.png

Fantastic a gripping end to a miserable poor winter.Big EC coming up!!! sorry being dying to say that since late November

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Leon1 Seasoned

Leon1

Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
Posted
Just now, swfc said:

Fantastic a gripping end to a miserable poor winter.Big EC coming up!!! sorry being dying to say that since late November

Some people got the most snowfall in a decade and the coldest temps since 2010 were recorded so not at all a poor winter for some.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look at the mean though on the actual chart, as i said, we either need the ridge a lot further North or a lot further West, actually though looking at a lot of the runs, if it wasn't for whats gone before and so late in winter, i would be confident further down the line with this WAA into the pole.

Feb you really are a trooper on here and I wish I had your optimistic outlook.look forward to November when it all starts again .well done pal

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Feb you really are a trooper on here and I wish I had your optimistic outlook.look forward to November when it all starts again .well done pal

I am not that optimistic, thanks though, some accuse me of being too negative and some accuse me of ramping, i just point out the good and bad from each run and the likelyhood of snow and cold in xxx timeframe.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
2 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Some people got the most snowfall in a decade and the coldest temps since 2010 were recorded so not at all a poor winter for some.

Where Norway!!!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
11 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

O look another banter post

I think without the banter folk would have pulled there hair out and taken there nails off by now. With output like this I'm actually glad some folk can still put a bit of humour to it.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Posted
3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Where Norway!!!

Because the south had some snow and some cold temperatures, this winter isn’t so bad for them. Here in Yorkshire this has been an extremely poor winter compared to past years. Going purely on imby, it’s been the worst for a long time. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
Just now, Decemberof2010 said:

Because the south had some snow and some cold temperatures, this winter isn’t so bad for them. Here in Yorkshire this has been an extremely poor winter compared to past years. Going purely on imby, it’s been the worst for a long time. 

Aye agree with that, here one of worst ever, even 13-14 was better

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
6 minutes ago, swfc said:

Where Norway!!!

No I think it was greece..or the Sahara desert, or maybe las vegas

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Leon1 Seasoned

Leon1

Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
Posted
7 minutes ago, swfc said:

Where Norway!!!

Loads of the south

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
19 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Even the CFS is pants. Anyone got any straws ? 

687CB307-208D-436B-B7D3-550E05F8A9BA.png

Nope, that’s the last straw gone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted
7 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Loads of the south

Can't be serious the snowfall couple weeks ago was the best snowfalls in decade in parts of the South if that's the case boy the winters in the South have been absolutely  terrible then.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

LOL at all the panicking!!

Lets see what EC comes up with guys ..

I have a good idea, but always a chance of a pleasant surprise!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
1 minute ago, booferking said:

Can't be serious the snowfall couple weeks ago was the best snowfalls in decade in parts of the South if that's the case boy the winters in the South have been absolutely  terrible then.

Apart from last year, they have been pretty dire since 2012/13, yes!  I did  receive the largest snowfall since December 2010 on February 1st, so haven’t done bad this year in an otherwise poor winter.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Anyone know what the highest recorded max was, for today? The last time I looked, it was 14C, on the Moray Firth...If I remember rightly, yesterday's GFS was predicting around 8C; if so, that's a 6C underestimation...

I hope the FV3 does a better job with the Foehn effect...

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ECM and FV3 at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.3d2e35bb80f239df7053f06ca09e0b33.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d866a5edb8fb8d9bb6a50c137eff2ae0.jpg

of the two, the FV3 is sharper and more amplified, with greater warm air advection directed polewards so interested to see how this run goes. ECM not a disaster, this is day 8, so there's every chance this block could get better placed as it comes into the reliable in future runs, I would be very interested to see what the T144 charts show this time Thursday.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

FV3 T276 and it's looking like GAME ON on this run:

image.thumb.jpg.e63a2e355c89848c5a0bdb1a0cfc3b96.jpg

T312:

image.thumb.jpg.e63a2e355c89848c5a0bdb1a0cfc3b96.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ae84238419c9d9de2ff322a078866dfe.jpg

Well into FI, of course, but the important timescale was earlier, so this isn't an outlandish evolution.

image.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Ecm 12z quite a bit further SE with the cold pool than the 0z morning run

ECM0-240.gif

ECM0-240 (1).gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

A poor ECM run.

By day ten no energy heading se and a lack of trough disruption to the west . It’s currently like pulling teeth to get any ridging sufficiently ne .

The last chance saloon is about to close down!  If it wasn’t for the MJO I would already be throwing the towel in on any meaningful cold and snow before winter ends.

 

Edited by nick sussex
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...