Cold hunt - models and chat

[KTtom]

42 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Dreadful GFS 0z run again. What’s happened to the MJO signal ?

Indeed more head scratching for the 'expert's...hideous looking outlook this morning if you like cold or are planning a European ski holiday....

 

Edited February 12, 2019 by KTtom

[KTtom]

6 hours ago, TEITS said:

Just when you think it couldn't get any worse along comes the 18Z. Probably one of the most dreadful runs for cold I have ever seen along with the GEFS ensembles.

Even im thinking of taking a break for a few days from viewing this ghastly output. I don't think I have ever seen such a difference between what was promised and what is being predicred since I started viewing the models on the internet. This isn't a dig at any members here but generally towards long range models, tweets, Met O forecasts etc.

Exactly! I guess in a way it makes weather watching all the more interesting, as those 'background signals obviously have had little if any effect this year on a mediocre winter which looks like transitioning to spring pretty rapidly...ec46 you forgot to add has been a joke.

[Chesil View]

Well now that the oh so accurate harbinger of northern blocking the EC46 has gone for southwesterlies all the way.  I feel even more confident of seeing more significant snowfall between now and mid-March .

[feb1991blizzard]

Good ECM D10 chart, where have i heard that before?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Good ECM D10 chart, where have i heard that before?

Really ?

 

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Really ?

 

[markw2680]

Somehow thing there will be big changes between now and that 22nd feb chart lol. Remember very small early changes make massive changes later on

[Dennis]

[Gowon]

2 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Dreadful GFS 0z run again. What’s happened to the MJO signal ?

The normal GFS was and still pig sh*t!!

Edited February 12, 2019 by D.V.R

[Tom Quintavalle]

I really can't understand some of the negative comments on this thread, yet again this morning. Ok, so the Old GFS, not great.

But the GFS (Para), shows this and actually they're not a million miles, apart!!

00z ECM at t240, continuing on from last night's 12z run. Core of heights surging N.E., towards Scandinavia. Signs of trough disruption, out to our S.W.

I certainly wouldn't describe these runs, as dreadful/hideous. A little OTT, I think!!

Regards,

Tom.  

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 12, 2019 by TomSE12

[Frosty.]

Sorry to say the latest output is utterly vile when you think back to what exeter were indicating through January for February with very cold E / NE winds and enhanced snow risk..the current outlook stinks!

[Summer Sun]

The ECM 00z mean in London now just gets below 0 on the 19th before heading back up. The peak of the mild air continues to be Friday

Scotland still showing hints of something a bit cooler (colder?) for a time next week

[ANYWEATHER]

Morning, I think this thread should be now deemed...... The Wild Goose Chase....

[Summer Sun]

The 5-day max high is 10c in southern Scotland & 13c in the south given GFS has a tendency to under do temps at times and the potential Foehn effect isolated mid teens highs still can't be ruled out

Very little rain over the 5-days as you'd expect with high pressure dominating

Edited February 12, 2019 by Summer Sun

[mulzy]

Ext EPS - just copy/paste the day 10 mean right through to day 15.

[Yarmy]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Para very similar as D10:

[mountain shadow]

3 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Dreadful GFS 0z run again. What’s happened to the MJO signal ?

It's been over ridden by the atmospheric state. 

Despite being in a weak El Nino,  the atmosphere is more La Nina.  No one knows why. 

Probably the SSW going against us.

[TEITS]

At least the GEFS ensembles have slightly improved compared with the 18Z although that isn't saying much!

The ECM is pretty decent at +240 and if it went out to +300 a pretty decent cold spell would be affecting the UK.

These are the only positives I can find amongst a generally poor set of 0Zs.

[bluearmy]

7 hours ago, Ramp said:

I read that as 100/105%

 

Goodnight

Well it’s a little bit higher this morning 

[frosty ground]

8 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Ext EPS - just copy/paste the day 10 mean right through to day 15.

If we can get the high to back west slightly we can get rid of the atlantic muck that is being drawn in with it, so a nice sunny settle spell with frost rather than a lot of low cloud and damp weather 

[frosty ground]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's been over ridden by the atmospheric state. 

Despite being in a weak El Nino,  the atmosphere is more La Nina.  No one knows why. 

Probably the SSW going against us.

Or the MJO forecast was wrong 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Or the MJO forecast was wrong 

Or MJO forecast are worth there weight in kangaroo dung.

[Frosty.]

I actually believe we would have had a better winter if the background signals were poor!..just a thought

[danthetan]

ECM continues where it left off last night deep trough in the mid Atlantic in the 8-10 day range high ridging north through the uk towards Scandinavia. Notice the energy spilling over the top of the block down into Russia and underneath, this helping to keep the block in situ and riding north.

[legritter]

Good morning gang, im going up the wood shed with me sausage sandwiches brown sauce .going to do what i did this time last year , so expect big changes in the charts later today  ,ecm will show a stonking northern block at 192 hrs ,gfs later today will smell the Coffee ,met office will mention wide spread snowfall  ,and the express will have 8 pages of Snow hell , jack daws are all flocking today ,squirrels are barricading their homes with straw ,help iv run out of prozack .I do like the ecm at 10 days , repeat 100 times , and here is the weather forecast , change expected soon ,cheers gang STellas all round .