Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46, South to SW winds with the trough anchored to our west - danny.

I DON'T BELIEVE IT!!!

index.thumb.jpg.74a26873dd99035f89840eb6577e5daf.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

The EC46 though could be good for Knocker, Summer Sun etc, its more ridgy than troughy so could really be blowtorch BBQ end feb / early March.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

Interestingly there is a draining away of the PV from Canada and Alaska and in turn Greenland as we approach FI. Much better than the 12z. Clutching at straws? Maybe, but at least it's different!

In fact, a Greeny high and a direct northerly is not a million miles form that chart at 132!

Edited by Rocheydub
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46, South to SW winds with the trough anchored to our west - danny.

You watch it verify now.  Another nail in the winter 2018/19 coffin!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46, South to SW winds with the trough anchored to our west - danny.

Yup only this time after weeks of  forecasting full on cold and snowy anomalys it shall be absolutely CORRECT about the mild outcome it is showing cos its not cold and snow and also just our damn luck !!!you gota laugh at it really!!its been abysmal from the ec46!!

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
5 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Interestingly there is a draining away of the PV from Canada and Alaska and in turn Greenland as we approach FI. Much better than the 12z. Clutching at straws? Maybe, but at least it's different!

In fact, a Greeny high and a direct northerly is not a million miles form that chart at 132!

Not in this run, but enough to keep me coming back for more. 

Is there an AA version of weather/snow hunters anonymous? Is the SACRA membership still open?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

As Winters go I don't remember one that promised so much and delivered so little. The grass hasnt stopped growing here all season and the daffodils are in full bloom. Aswell as being mild it's been very quiet on the storm front also. I think if you were to use one word to sum it up few would argue with the term 'boring'.

As for longe range forecasts the argument is futile for me. They're inaccurate most of the time and as the phrase goes a broken clock is still right twice a day! In other words luck can sometimes prove an lrf to be right.

But we all know we will do it all again next year lol!!

 

Edited by January Snowstorm
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

As Winters go I don't remember one that promised so much and delivered so little. The grass hasnt stopped growing here all season and the daffodils are in full bloom. Aswell as being mild it's been very quiet on the storm front also. I think if you were to use one word to sum it up few would argue with the term 'boring'.

 

Boring is better than wet and windy (by miles!)

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

One straw to clutch at is that we know how quick the models can switch!

we are relying on the mjo here now to give us one last hurrah,feb 22nd>

then i will throw my t'shirt in:crazy:

Edited by Allseasons-si
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

we are relying on the mjo here now to give us one last hurrah,feb 22nd>

Models do not seem interested at the moment.  One hope is they have overreacted to the mild pattern and something more interesting will crop up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tweeddale 145m
  • Location: Tweeddale 145m

To get very cold weather here in the UK is a memorable event and I live in (the snow usual suspects) Scotland. So I don't expect real cold, but I do enjoy it a lot when it happens. That it's a rarity, is the reason why I am here. Were this the 10th winter in a row of being blocked in by snow and nothing in the shops, perhaps I wouldn't like it. OK I admit that's a lie.

The hunt for UK cold is always a game where the odds are stacked against you, why partake in it if you don't enjoy the hunt?, success or failure, it's lively, entertaining and informative in here. Many seem worn out. The weather doesn't owe us anything. My heart may sink a little when charts show little hope but I know tomorrow there is always another run and further chances. Keep hope coldies. Just don't expect too much.

When the weather decides winters is over I will look forward to Spring. Winter is not over yet though.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

What we need  is another SSW :oops:

On it's way...

SSW winds

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

When all else fails,pub run included,I bring you all hope...

That Bastian of British journalistic standard

The Daily star front page tonight.

If the ECM 240hrs had a headline maker this winter it would be the Daily Star.

1562861.jpg

Edited by sunnijim
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL
Just now, sunnijim said:

When all else fails,pub run included,I bring you all hope...

That Bastian of British journalistic standard

The Daily star front page tonight

1562861.jpg

They couldn't even get the wind direction right 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, sunnijim said:

When all else fails,pub run included,I bring you all hope...

That Bastian of British journalistic standard

The Daily star front page tonight

1562861.jpg

came up on my facebook from the Sun, someone shared it, I replied 15 degrees this week, wet 11 degrees next week

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
13 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

When all else fails,pub run included,I bring you all hope...

That Bastian of British journalistic standard

The Daily star front page tonight

1562861.jpg

B&q have just announced that they are reducing there BBQ'S to half price due to the BFTE later next week,i am opening an early BBQ day if anyone is interested,

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
1 hour ago, Don said:

You watch it verify now.  Another nail in the winter 2018/19 coffin!

It would just be our poxy luck 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

And guess what is still anchored to our West at 384.

image.thumb.png.341d582e7a45cb566214f45d14ecd4a2.png

Actually a lot of members look really promising but its too many consecutive runs now with little actual undercutting and E'ly or even those very high lat Greenland / Arctic cut off blocks with a NE flow, you know - the ones you find a lot in the extended modelling but verifies or gets into the reliable on a big fat zero occasions, well there isn't even that much modelling of it anymore, in short, you would think now that more members would be showing brutal cold if it were likely to happen.

 

image.thumb.png.872c76d4f7b19e85002f720046559fd0.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Just when you think it couldn't get any worse along comes the 18Z. Probably one of the most dreadful runs for cold I have ever seen along with the GEFS ensembles.

Even im thinking of taking a break for a few days from viewing this ghastly output. I don't think I have ever seen such a difference between what was promised and what is being predicred since I started viewing the models on the internet. This isn't a dig at any members here but generally towards long range models, tweets, Met O forecasts etc.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
7 hours ago, jules216 said:

From one extreme to another(GEFS)  

gens-3-1-384.png

gens-12-1-384.png

Lol, safe to say models haven't got a Scooby. Which normally more and cold is just around the corner.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

10/15% 

the 46 doesn’t show the euro heights leaving us ......

I read that as 100/105%

 

Goodnight

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...