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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
12 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

This will do the trick, removed from car and chucked back in the garage for another season today!

20190211_154050.jpg

Plenty of time for sledging though...mostly during the upcoming Ashes test series...

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
12 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

This will do the trick, removed from car and chucked back in the garage for another season today!

20190211_154050.jpg

Rrrrrr, reverse physcology, let's just hope your goona need it back real soon

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Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed

Looking at tonights ECM and EPS if* thats where we are heading in the 8-10 day range and beyond, I would imagine the ridge over the uk/Europe would have more of a chance to ridge north as the trough in the mid Atlantic digs quite a way south. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Evening all

just observing all the models over the last few days inc anom's ens etc,there is no sugarcoating this at the moment,the models look vile BUT what i have noticed recently is that the trough is extending further south into central atlantic creating more of an amplified pattern of WAA ahead of it to our N//NE,quiet a few ens show this,this at(yes i know)+10 days away,we have to take into account the lag effect of the mjo Phase 8 but we have to get through Phase 6-7(uk/Scandi high)

the means show this trough dig into the Atlantic with amp ridge ahead but take these as a broadbrush

ecn/gefs at day ten

EDH1-240.thumb.GIF.bdc21394cbbf6ded31f72c14082c2dd4.GIFgensnh-21-1-240.thumb.png.9a3effe7004238d7a1b4112cce49f3bb.png

eps/gefs+ext gefs

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.7c8c63322a6e4cf1cf068a5af0262140.pnggfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.6ec5d650ebf3febe589b364718587ff0.pnggfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.thumb.png.8cc5e1c128dc230c4a3893d730a410b0.png

cpc days8-14 and NAO

814day_03.thumb.gif.c4150df7261cc83790836aa145ae163a.gifnao.sprd2.thumb.gif.f1eabcef43e583ac213a75205e1ebe18.gif

it will be interesting to see how amplified this pattern evolves,remember,...a block can be hard to shift and with a favourable amplified Phase 8 mjo signal,this could be the one,Greenland last stop!!!?

meanwhile,enjoy the pleasant springlike weather this week

i will get my coat ,t'shirt

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
15 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hello folks .... The European high is not going anywhere in a hurry both models show it remaining stubborn ,and once this synoptic scenario occurs it can be with us for many days even weeks. The Atlantic tries to come in , but with little impact.  Looks like Winter is going out very gently.....

ecmt850.240-7.png

h850t850eu.webp

Err, with all due respect, don't think I'd call that a European High though? Looks like it's transferring to Scandinavia anyway, to me?

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.f1eabcef43e583ac213a75205e1ebe18.gif

 

That NAO forecast looks a bit more interesting than it has done for a while.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

This is model discussion thread, NOT a weather organisation discussion one. There are plenty of other places for chat about it.

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
3 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Err, with all due respect, don't think I'd call that a European High though? Looks like it's transferring to Scandinavia anyway, to me?

Regards,

Tom. 

Good call, hence the risk of colder Conditions later this month as it PERHAPS transfers N/NE

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
40 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We will just have to hope the EC 46 shows something around 5th - 15th March.

When!!!

next year lol

it has been showing these northern blockings for weeks and weeks on end and my trust for these is waining thin,i am not moaning but i am stating the fact

shirley they must get them right one day....

index.thumb.jpg.6e7565d2cca1fc9e1a79a3c63d9d915b.jpg

...in summer

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No change on my musings from last night ....ec46 week 3 at 10pm will be watched for the scandi sausage and undercut 

How confident are you it will verify and give us wintry uppers nirvana?

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

I am going to do my pub run watch for early changes of interest, as the winter draws to a close, can we drag one more chase for cold from the ashes of summer warmth? It's very unlikely now, but it's my addiction, so let's do this thang!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
4 hours ago, Weathizard said:

February very rarely delivers, I mean I’m only in my twenties but down here I think I can only think or one or 2 proper snow falls in February, even March has more. Quite often an anticyclonic month if my memory serves me.

Nothing much to talk about amongst the models this afternoon, very poor output if any sustained cold is what you’re after, hopefully the CFS has something at 750 hours for us lol  

Well before that

06z and 12z

anim_zer0.thumb.gif.c8fe3a41a1864c84f64076c443f8958d.gifanim_zft8.thumb.gif.b95ce1955c728bb529d8d0489d72a4cd.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How confident are you it will verify and give us wintry uppers nirvana?

I think BA is playing the law of averages. Given we've hit the 5% chance of a cold spell not happening on too many occasions, its about time that we hit the 5% chance of a mild spell not happening.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No change on my musings from last night ....ec46 week 3 at 10pm will be watched for the scandi sausage and undercut 

How long is this sausage going to take processing...

i am hungry...

for snow

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

How long is this sausage going to take processing...

i am hungry...

for snow

image.thumb.png.b632b71b36b8a3c2a4ecff41d27e4dac.png I think by the look on their faces, the undercut is approaching in the distance.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

We just need to get more amplitude north ahead of the trough in the atlantic,if we get the height's high enough(past N/uk)then we will get the undercut closing the height's off to our north,some ens have been showing this

i have a bail of straw to clutch onto as we still have time,i just want to see some good ol charts popping up now instead of watching the soaps our lass keeps on watching

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

We just need to get more amplitude north ahead of the trough in the atlantic,if we get the height's high enough(past N/uk)then we will get the undercut closing the height's off to our north,some ens have been showing this

i have a bail of straw to clutch onto as we still have time,i just want to see some good ol charts popping up now instead of watching the soaps our lass keeps on watching

Sadly according to the pub run, now out to 96 hours, and despite some earlier amplification north of us, it's actually got worse!!! Deepening lows to our north and a movement of the PV slice to our locality! BOOOO the pub run!

 

A God-awful bloody run!

Edited by Rocheydub
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

Sadly according to the pub run, now out to 96 hours, and despite some earlier amplification north of us, it's actually got worse!!! Deepening lows to our north and a movement of the PV slice to our locality! BOOOO the pub run!

Not much change there and there won't be

i am looking at day 10+ for interest

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