Cold hunt - models and chat

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

95/96, 96/97, legendary! want them days back

95/96 good but still nothing compared to the 80's

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

95/96 good but still nothing compared to the 80's

or Feb 1991! trouble is I don't remember 80's

[North-Easterly Blast]

24 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Could be right, 85/86 winter was mild December and January, but febuary ended up as the coldest month since 1963. With an average temp of - 1.1 degrees 

I do not think that January 1986 was exactly mild, it had a CET of 3.5, which is just below average.  It was colder early and late in that month but had a milder spell from about the 10th to 23rd.  Dec 1985 was as you say a mild month overall, though it still did turn colder in the week between Christmas and New Year.

 

2 minutes ago, Don said:

I could say winters 1995/96 and 1996/7 were crap because I got very little snow during those years! However, that obviously wasn’t the case.  I got 10cms of snow on Feb 1st, not 25, which was a good result I admit.  Basingstoke was the sweet spot that day and had more akin to 25cm.  As I’ve said before, my winter posts are not IMBY based.  I wouldn’t call this winter a stinker due to the interest during the 2nd half of January.  The issue is, it promised so much but has delivered so little, which has made it ever more frustrating.  Add to that the model teases too!  If the background signals had always been poor i.e. a super El Niño and a strong wQBO, I would actually think we’ve done ok this year!

The QBO switched to westerly in November and the figure for January is around +9, so winter 2018-19 has been a westerly QBO winter.  The let down is that with us almost in solar minimum and the El Nino this year only turning out to be a weak one, and the SSW in early January not setting up blocking favourably to bring a notable cold spell to our small part of the world has made this winter very disappointing in what it has delivered for most of the country.

[mulzy]

Sad state of affairs when we are left to reminisce about winters past when the 12z ECM is currently rolling. Nothing much to report on the ECM to day 5.

What a “dyer” winter it has been.

 

Edited February 11, 2019 by mulzy

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I do not think that January 1986 was exactly mild, it had a CET of 3.5, which is just below average.  It was colder early and late in that month but had a milder spell from about the 10th to 23rd.  Dec 1985 was as you say a mild month overall, though it still did turn colder in the week between Christmas and New Year.

 

The QBO switched to westerly in November and the figure for January is around +9, so winter 2018-19 has been a westerly QBO winter.  The let down is that with us almost in solar minimum and the El Nino this year only turning out to be a weak one, and the SSW in early January not setting up blocking favourably to bring a notable cold spell to our small part of the world has made this winter very disappointing in what it has delivered for most of the country.

I've got verification stats on January being close to average, if we could hope for a similar outcome to 86, it would be worth pointing out that both March and April were below average, April being the coldest since 1922 with an average of 5.8 degrees, so perhaps hope for us yet.

[Summer Sun]

Looking at the 12z London ens run and you can count the amount of runs going below -5 on one hand

A few more going below -5 further north but a cold end to winter looks unlikely at this stage

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking at the 12z London ens run and you can count the amount of runs going below -5 on one hand

A few more going below -5 further north but a cold end to winter looks unlikely at this stage

I would agree with that, but a cold start to spring his highly feasible. 

 

 

 

 

[mulzy]

The GEFS are now in close agreement with this morning’s EPS.  A pretty poor broadscale pattern if you want cold and snow.

Edited February 11, 2019 by mulzy

[That ECM]

18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

or Feb 1991! trouble is I don't remember 80's

The trouble is I do remember the 80’s I wish I was young enough not to remember

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I would agree with that, but a cold start to spring his highly feasible. 

 

 

 

 

At this rate, it will be a cold start to summer.  What with the cold ever being pushed further back!

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

At this rate, it will be a cold start to summer.  What with the cold ever being pushed further back!

Surely if we keep pushing it back, we can get ready for the start of winter 19/20!

[Stephen W]

44 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Depends on what you are seeking from a cold spell.

Chances of powdery snow, ice days, many days of lying snow is becoming increasingly unlikely, although remains possible to early March. However a snow event which may slowly thaw the next day is possible for the next 6 weeks.

After such a dreadful winter I would be happy with the latter.

Agreed! A couple of cm’s would be sufficient for me. I’ve barely seen a flake. These charts are the polar opposite to what you want to see in Feb if you like cold. What is noticeable about this winter is the persistence of a pattern once it’s established. And that’s all I can see from the output at the moment. Another benign and mild spell and possibly exceptional. I never expected to see that this winter. I have only seen a flirtation with deep cold within the model output. The favourable MJO 8 signal is not yet gaining traction. 

Edited February 11, 2019 by Stephen W

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Don said:

At this rate, it will be a cold start to summer.  What with the cold ever being pushed further back!

Yep, that's possible as well. I always say to much mild weather at this stage will bring a knock on effect come March and April. Not everyone's cup of tea I know, but colder enough uppers can still bring significant snowfall. Perhaps the hunt for cold thread should of started later this time, it feels like I have been hunting for it since November!! Ohh hang on a sec, I have! 

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

At this rate, it will be a cold start to summer.  What with the cold ever being pushed further back!

Surely if we keep pushing it back, we can get ready for the start of winter 19/20!

[mulzy]

A glimmer at day 9 on the ECM?

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yep, that's possible as well. I always say to much mild weather at this stage will bring a knock on effect come March and April. Not everyone's cup of tea I know, but colder enough uppers can still bring significant snowfall. Perhaps the hunt for cold thread should of started later this time, it feels like I have been hunting for it since November!! Ohh hang on a sec, I have! 

That’s just like saying because a coin has landed heads 5 times in a row, it has to be tails. There’s no corroboration between having a mild winter leading to a cold spring.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

A glimmer at day 9 on the ECM?

Atlantic has hit the wall..

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Atlantic has hit the wall..

Another one!?

[nick sussex]

An opening at day 9 and 10 on the ECM with more energy heading se and a ridge extending further ne .

Whether it survives till tomorrow morning is another question !

[igloo]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Another one!?

just say it the bartlett converybelt

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yep, that's possible as well. I always say to much mild weather at this stage will bring a knock on effect come March and April. Not everyone's cup of tea I know, but colder enough uppers can still bring significant snowfall. Perhaps the hunt for cold thread should of started later this time, it feels like I have been hunting for it since November!! Ohh hang on a sec, I have! 

That’s just like saying because a coin has landed heads 5 times in a row, it has to be tails. There’s no corroboration between having a mild winter leading to a cold spring.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240 clear mid latitude block, and that's fine at that range as it could always upgrade in later runs

Of much more interest is the FV3 at same time, which shows the potential for undercutting small areas of low pressure, will be interested to see how this run goes from here - it's taking an age tonight!

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

An opening at day 9 and 10 on the ECM with more energy heading se and a ridge extending further ne .

Whether it survives till tomorrow morning is another question !

Looks like the METO update earlier Nick- 'HP to the North/north east and the Atlantic moving in with snow to high ground and lower levels'..

As you say, we need to see some continuation of this in the morning..

[Cheshire Freeze]

31 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking at the 12z London ens run and you can count the amount of runs going below -5 on one hand

A few more going below -5 further north but a cold end to winter looks unlikely at this stage

Yes, as I said a couple of weeks ago (and still hold the belief), we are ascending into an early spring.

I fear this could be a drought year in all honesty, we've seen pretty much the same pattern dominate our weather for the best part of a year now- namely a repeated nosing in of the Azores HP which is sometimes getting to our E and pumping up warm S'lys and SW'lys. 

Not sure what changes the foundations over the next few months to take us more profoundly towards a -AO/-NAO regime. Mid latitude HP is ruling the roost our side of the hemisphere. The upshot being, little rainfall and increasingly hot temperatures could be on the menu over the next few months.

[Garfmort]

Hunting for snow and cold? Hawaii Haleakala National Park Summit District is closed today not due to lava but snow!

https://www.theinertia.com/news/mauis-haleakala-national-park-summit-district-closed-due-to-snow/

My hunt in Leicester continues...