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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
5 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Where are you? Some of the most notable snowfalls in Sussex during the 1980s came in the last week of February,think in 1986 we had a heavy fall of snow at the back end of a freeze on the 1st March.

Could be right, 85/86 winter was mild December and January, but febuary ended up as the coldest month since 1963. With an average temp of - 1.1 degrees 

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If ever we needed a good EPS / 46 it is tonight, after the poor GEFS suite.

I'm thinking we probably won't but we'll see.  This winter is getting right under my skin now!  Sadly, I think we all know deep down it's a lost cause now.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
6 minutes ago, Don said:

I'm thinking we probably won't but we'll see.  This winter is getting right under my skin now!  Sadly, I think we all know deep down it's a lost cause now.

I know we've been through this, but if I had 25cms of snow, I certainly wouldn't be saying that! max depth here around 18cms in the m/e (20 winters or so)

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I know we've been through this, but if I had 25cms of snow, I certainly wouldn't be saying that! max depth here around 18cms in the m/e (20 winters or so)

Oh come on Ian leave the christmas pudding out of it for goodness sake!

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Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
20 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

So we end up with cold uppers in the central Atlantic, and cold uppers a million miles east!! With the UK in the middle of no where. Surely the models should be latching onto something by now, patience is wearing thin.

gfs-1-324 (1).png

I swear that green thing is laughing at us!

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Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If ever we needed a good EPS / 46 it is tonight, after the poor GEFS suite.

At this point I'm thinking - does it really mean anything if we do get a good one or not?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well, since there are no cold charts to post..come on, who ordered the Gfs 12z blowtorch!!!..lol, this winter is beyond a joke now:gathering:

12_264_mslp850.png

12_288_uk2mtmp.png

12_288_mslp850.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Just now, snowblind said:

I swear that green thing is laughing at us!

Most definitely, seems to be shaped like some kind of prehistoric dinasaur as well, perhaps its trying to say this cold snap potential is extinct

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

At this point I'm thinking - does it really mean anything if we do get a good one or not?

 

Just now, Djdazzle said:

We had great EC46 for ages and look what happened!

I would still rather have the modelling favourable than not, no matter how the models have been performing or peoples perceptions of their performance, because you can bet your bottom dollar, as soon as they go flat, they will start verifying better.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well, since there are no cold charts to post..come on, who ordered the Gfs 12z blowtorch!!!..lol, this winter is beyond a joke now

12_264_mslp850.png

12_288_uk2mtmp.png

12_288_mslp850.png

In summer that would be a 20 degree 850hpa plume with temps of 35 degrees!!!!what a waste

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If ever we needed a good EPS / 46 it is tonight, after the poor GEFS suite.

Why are you holding onto a vague hope. The met office coudk see mild was on the cards and they have jumped. Onto it big time. 

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

I would still rather have the modelling favourable than not, no matter how the models have been performing or peoples perceptions of their performance, because you can bet your bottom dollar, as soon as they go flat, they will start verifying better.

The GFS parallel nailed the very cold outbreak here in Western Canada consistently from 384 hrs out and never wavered although all others did

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Most definitely, seems to be shaped like some kind of prehistoric dinasaur as well, perhaps its trying to say this cold snap potential is extinct

Were it blue, it'd look like Puff The Magic Dragon?

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Not sure if this has been posted as I have only just been able to view the output. Loving this from the control

F05E408E-DAC8-405F-8748-3E547608FEF4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 minutes ago, shaky said:

In summer that would be a 20 degree 850hpa plume with temps of 35 degrees!!!!what a waste

FI chart but biggest waste ever, best time for that would be April, early taste of summer late 20's

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The priest is about to deliver the last rites but the coldies surrounding the very sick MJO implore the medics to not switch off the machine !

The GFS delivers a dire 12 hrs run after a brief flirtation with something better earlier.

The only reason I haven’t thrown the towel in yet is to see whether the MJO into phase 8 will make a difference to the model crud we’ve been subjected to for the last week.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Were it blue, it'd look like Puff The Magic Dragon?

So its basically saying the chances of this cold snap are going up in smoke!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, TEITS said:

Depends on what you are seeking from a cold spell.

Chances of powdery snow, ice days, many days of lying snow is becoming increasingly unlikely, although remains possible to early March. However a snow event which may slowly thaw the next day is possible for the next 6 weeks.

After such a dreadful winter I would be happy with the latter.

I would certainly rather have a heavy fall that's gone within 48 hours than a couple of inches that lasts for 2 weeks, hence why you see me being a pain in the ass on here right up until Early April sometimes, and people then hunting for heat and storms think i am on a wind up but im not.

 

archivesnh-1981-4-25-0-0.png

A foot of snow quite widely and a right dumping even for Central Southern England.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I know we've been through this, but if I had 25cms of snow, I certainly wouldn't be saying that! max depth here around 18cms in the m/e (20 winters or so)

I could say winters 1995/96 and 1996/7 were crap because I got very little snow during those years! However, that obviously wasn’t the case.  I got 10cms of snow on Feb 1st, not 25, which was a good result I admit.  Basingstoke was the sweet spot that day and had more akin to 25cm.  As I’ve said before, my winter posts are not IMBY based.  I wouldn’t call this winter a stinker due to the interest during the 2nd half of January.  The issue is, it promised so much but has delivered so little, which has made it ever more frustrating.  Add to that the model teases too!  If the background signals had always been poor i.e. a super El Niño and a strong wQBO, I would actually think we’ve done ok this year!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, Don said:

I could say winters 1995/96 and 1996/7 were crap because I got very little snow during those years! However, that obviously wasn’t the case.  I got 10cms of snow on Feb 1st, not 25, which was a good result I admit.  Basingstoke was the sweet spot that day and had more akin to 25cm.  As I’ve said before, my winter posts are not IMBY based.  I wouldn’t call this winter a stinker due to the interest during the 2nd half of January.  The issue is, it promised so much but has delivered so little, which has made it ever more frustrating.  Add to that the model teases too!  If the background signals had always been poor i.e. a super El Niño and a strong wQBO, I would actually think we’ve done ok this year!

95/96, 96/97, legendary! want them days back

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

95/96, 96/97, legendary! want them days back

There you go!  Very frustrating for me they were.

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