Cold hunt - models and chat

[Summer Sun]

8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Pretty clear we are in a decent +be NAO pattern for now. As Nick said we may swing a technical -ve spell if we were to see an upper low dives into the Atlantic but a long way off.

Looking well above average this week, and a far better chance of a top 10 mildest Feb's then a below average Feb...I'd say probably equal odds for a record breaking Feb than a below average one. I don't think either will happen, But who knows!

Also possibility of a daily record of two being broken this week.

I was looking at the daily records not that long ago maybe Saturday could be the best chance?

 

[booferking]

17 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Flip what?

+NAO 

[sunnijim]

7 hours ago, kumquat said:

Hi sunnijim, think I remember you from met monkey days! I always look to these times of poor model outlook as slack, col-like periods. Things are about to kick off. Net migration north of warmth and no notable mid-latitude surface cold in Europe makes me think this year will be a late one. Maybe a dud one for cold but still time.

Hi, yes you do have the right person!( Hope I am remembered in a positive light,rather than some of the crazy members in those days) I hope you are spot on with your thoughts.

This morning's runs show something stiring from this weekend,prolonged Euro heights might be off the agenda as we head into late February?

For me,I give it until mid March before I look for Spring rather than Winter,21c in March is possible given the right set up.

Something exceptional needs to happen for decent snowfall in the South after mid March,my mind goes back to April 8th 2009 or 2008( need to check) when a polar low dived down the spine of the Country,we had -1c at 3pm and settling snow on the beach!

[Duane S.]

I agree that the NAO is a source of great annoyance when it comes to our weather and getting prolonged cold. But having lots of +NAO winters/months is absolutely nothing new. There have been plenty of times where we have had solidly +NAO periods. The most recent of course was the late 80s and through the 90's. Going back much further, there was a run of 12 consecutive +NAO winters (Dec - March) at the turn of the century. A further run of 9 out of 11 winters just after the first world war returned +NAO. Many of these were very strongly +NAO winters as well.

Now, we may or may not be in the midst of another protracted run (still a way to go before we can start comparing with those periods though). Personally I doubt it though, we are in a solar min, so I would expect there to be at least as many -NAO winters as +NAO over the next few years. But quite frankly, whos knows at this stage.

And it is worth remembering as well, that the NAO of course is not a driver in its own right. Merely a reflection of anomalous pressures in the North Atlantic, simply returned in SD form.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Indeed, and not too dissimilar to the 18z run 

It’s a parallel universe the GFS-P runs on

[TEITS]

Dare I use the word POTENTIAL.

+162 GFS!

Edited February 11, 2019 by TEITS

[frosty ground]

6 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Dare I use the word POTENTIAL.

+162 GFS!

What would the NAO be on this chart?

[frosty ground]

Looking at the GFS so far I don't see any temps higher than 11, not sure that would be record breaking?

[Drifter]

5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

What would the NAO be on this chart?

Positively negative?

Edited February 11, 2019 by Drifter

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Looking at the GFS so far I don't see any temps higher than 11, not sure that would be record breaking?

GFS currently has my 10 am temp as 3c but my temp is actually 7c so I would add 4-5c to the GFS forecast.

[frosty ground]

Just now, IDO said:

GFS currently has my 10 am temp as 3c but my temp is actually 7c so I would add 4-5c to the GFS forecast.

Insert the Not sure if your serious Meme here

[Chesil View]

2 hours ago, IDO said:

The NAO Index for January came in at +0.59 (NOAA CPC)

The NAO has been: Negative in 2 of the last 16 months

Negative in 3 of the last 32 Dec-Mar winter months

Negative in 1 of the last 24 Dec-Feb winter months

Positive the last 8 Decembers

Positive the last 8 Januarys

source: @griteater

That is what we are fighting so the default is likely to be not cold for the UK, and we have to look for background signals that will flip that. I cannot see it ATM, especially with the MJO now stalling in Phase 7, and that is assuming no interference, unlikely based on this Winter's performance.

We can hope, but the likelihood is clearly unfavorable.

Why would anyone expect the NAO to be anything other than positive a lot of the time. All that means is that it is reflecting our climatology. Namely mainly a west to east Atlantic driven pattern operating at various intensities for much of the time. 

As others have said the NAO is not in itself a driver. More it reflects the pattern that other atmospheric drivers create.  Hence if the MJO goes through phases 7-8-1 at high amplitude and takes a month to do so then that month would most likely have a negative NAO recorded as a result of those MJO phases promoting blocking in the North/northeast Atlantic.

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

A settled 10-days ahead looking at the average pressure slightly lower in Scotland but no washout by any means. Mild as a result widely across Europe.

I am sure I saw those in Jan with well below temps for Feb....just saying

[Summer Sun]

Just now, winterof79 said:

I am sure I saw those in Jan with well below temps for Feb....just saying

Maybe but these charts only run to a maximum of 10-day

[frosty ground]

Still at the potential stage 

[WhiteFox]

17 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It’s a parallel universe the GFS-P runs on

I suspect that the GFSp needs more than a little tweaking. I've been following some of the recent storms in the US and its predictions for snow amounts in the north east have been utterly woeful: consistently far too high. To be honest, I haven't paid it much attention, but from the few charts I've seen in here it has a consistent bias towards producing cold and blocked output for Europe. That could be because people only post it when it shows cold, but I get the feeling it does this far more frequently than the live GFS.

I've seen a couple of forecasters in the US say that the whole model needs to be deleted and to start again!

[snowray]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

I've certainly given up for Winter. Maybe a cold Spring but Winter is assuredly over for cold and snow.

 

 

Indeed we are talking cold Spring from now on, Winter never really even started again this year so in reality no-one can say "Winter is over"!

Anyway more often then not in this country cold and snow turns up just before winter starts or when it's over. It seems to me that the three rather bland and generally mild months referred to as "Winter months"  should be renamed the "Darker months" maybe instead, calling them Winter months can be quite a misleading term for people coming from places that do indeed have proper Winter weather in Winter, which is about 95% of the Northern Hemisphere. 

So the hunt is now for Spring cold and Spring snow as far as I am concerned. 

Edited February 11, 2019 by snowray

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Maybe but these charts only run to a maximum of 10-day

You are correct it was some similar charts maybe ECM

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, winterof79 said:

You are correct it was some similar charts maybe ECM

It might have been these.

http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Good synoptics - no cold uppers!

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Good synoptics - no cold uppers!

Yet....

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It might have been these.

http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

 

Don't know what's happened to those charts they haven't updated for 4 weeks now

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

Don't know what's happened to those charts they haven't updated for 4 weeks now

I know, perhaps tonight will be the night!!!

 

[IDO]

1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Why would anyone expect the NAO to be anything other than positive a lot of the time. All that means is that it is reflecting our climatology. Namely mainly a west to east Atlantic driven pattern operating at various intensities for much of the time. 

As others have said the NAO is not in itself a driver. More it reflects the pattern that other atmospheric drivers create.  Hence if the MJO goes through phases 7-8-1 at high amplitude and takes a month to do so then that month would most likely have a negative NAO recorded as a result of those MJO phases promoting blocking in the North/northeast Atlantic.

It is the baseline, where expectations should be before we look at variables. We are therefore in a period of low expectations and I would argue that is important for anyone forecasting our Winters.

It is a reflection of the sum total of those "drivers" so it is a valuable index. We can conclude from these stats that even with the MJO sometimes being helpful, the longterm trend is for +NAO, which for the UK means it is hard to get a cold spell without triggers like an SSW.

 

[frosty ground]

48 minutes ago, IDO said:

It is the baseline, where expectations should be before we look at variables. We are therefore in a period of low expectations and I would argue that is important for anyone forecasting our Winters.

It is a reflection of the sum total of those "drivers" so it is a valuable index. We can conclude from these stats that even with the MJO sometimes being helpful, the longterm trend is for +NAO, which for the UK means it is hard to get a cold spell without triggers like an SSW.

 

The reason we hunt for cold is because it's not that common, and never really has been unless your a rose tinted glasses type of guy.

Decembers NAO value has little bearing on February's. It was a pointless addition to a post that basically said climate norms are climate norms

Had the GFS06z Run arched back with the Jet a bit more the final third of the run would have been cold. a perfectly reasonable outcome from the starting point. The NAO on the run is that that easily defined either. 

Edited February 11, 2019 by frosty ground