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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
Just now, Mattwolves said:

My god that Ms some cold pool, its nearly reaching the canary Isles

Think you may need to check your maps for the location of the Canary Islands

Has anyone been following the CFS regularly recently ? Is there any consistency in its recent runs ?

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Rambo Enthusiast

Rambo

Posted
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
Posted
1 minute ago, Badgers01 said:

We have had numerous model runs that have shown an easterly is possible and that’s where they stayed in model never land - please don’t try and tell me this has been a great winter because it hasn’t !

Who said this winter has been great lol????????

I was merely correcting your factually incorrect comments!

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Think you may need to check your maps for the location of the Canary Islands

Has anyone been following the CFS regularly recently ? Is there any consistency in its recent runs ?

It was in jest of how far Sw it was located, I wasn't specifically going into geographical terms! And yes cfs has consistently been showing these cold runs, petty there always a month out

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Badgers01 Seasoned

Badgers01

Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
Posted
6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Been showing cold for some time, and maybe mogreps is also showing it, just that we don't get access to it! And before mocking the CFS, I no for a fact that judd Cohen views it, and we all no how  accurate he's been this winter

Well maybe he knows what a no is !!??

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

It was in jest of how far Sw it was located, I wasn't specifically going into geographical terms! And yes cfs has consistently been showing these cold runs, petty there always a month out

Fair enough. It’s just the canaries are actually quite warm on that CFS chart. Think you may have been looking at the islands at the bottom left of the image which is actually Madeira. Canary Islands are about 300 miles further south and don’t even appear in that view. 

Will be interesting to see if CFS remains consistent. There is obviously still a signal from somewhere (perhaps Mogreps) driving the meto further outlook 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, Badgers01 said:

Well maybe he knows what a no is !!??

Lighten up Mr rude! I've made a point about certain models showing cold. Your just coming on to dash all those hopes, I'm pretty sure the thread is still called... THE HUNT FOR COLD!! 

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

Certainly wouldn't say no to Spring warmth though! unsure of temps but this could be decent? probably not in my location mind you, 16 degrees? if we can't have snow/cold, then I'd rather a Feb '98 setup

ECM1-120.GIF?10-0

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E17boy Seasoned

E17boy

Posted
Posted

Evening peeps

Hope you all are ok. This winter has not been spectacular, yes we have had a couple of snow events but we have not had the prolonged freeze we were all hoping for. As I mentioned in my post yesterday there were so many positive outside factors but unfortunately it was not meant to be. 

I agree there were some candy charts which were showing the goods but in the 10 day time frame and beyond. A lot of these candy charts made us fall for them as we in our hearts were so desperate for winter, and amongst this some of us forgot that charts this far out do not always verefy and that's what's been proved and we have fell into the trap.I think it's a lesson for us maybe next winter to just look at the reliable timeframe and stick to that although that is hard. 

As for the rest of this winter the charts tell the story. We have got this slug high pressure that's going to spoil what's left of winter for at least another week or more. Sadly to be realistic I don't think this high is going to take up home where we want it. It's more probably going to stick south east. The barrell of spring is on our door step it's frustrating but there is nothing that we can do to change this. Maybe we will have more luck next winter where most of us will be back here chasing for our cold. Our hunt will always continue wiinter wonderland we will find you one day,

hope you all have a great evening

regards

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Now we have springtime warmth charts being posted in the hunt for cold thread!! That's it, the handbag, the towels, hell, the whole wardrobe is being thrown in.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, E17boy said:

Evening peeps

Hope you all are ok. This winter has not been spectacular, yes we have had a couple of snow events but we have not had the prolonged freeze we were all hoping for. As I mentioned in my post yesterday there were so many positive outside factors but unfortunately it was not meant to be. 

I agree there were some candy charts which were showing the goods but in the 10 day time frame and beyond. A lot of these candy charts made us fall for them as we in our hearts were so desperate for winter, and amongst this some of us forgot that charts this far out do not always verefy and that's what's been proved and we have fell into the trap.I think it's a lesson for us maybe next winter to just look at the reliable timeframe and stick to that although that is hard. 

As for the rest of this winter the charts tell the story. We have got this slug high pressure that's going to spoil what's left of winter for at least another week or more. Sadly to be realistic I don't think this high is going to take up home where we want it. It's more probably going to stick south east. The barrell of spring is on our door step it's frustrating but there is nothing that we can do to change this. Maybe we will have more luck next winter where most of us will be back here chasing for our cold. Our hunt will always continue wiinter wonderland we will find you one day,

hope you all have a great evening

regards

Good post,  but correct me if I'm wrong here, this indeed is an autopsy report!! Pretty sure we have a few weeks left yet to salvage something!

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted
19 minutes ago, Purga said:

P07 will do

image.thumb.png.e9176b7f8af656cf13e946c04bb99763.pngimage.thumb.png.61281a14c2d5a6789fd3ad56b7b2a649.png

Pretty much a repeat of the beast last year 

Would be some feat if that came off, we would get it two days earlier then it occurred last year. Shame the evolution earlier on looks questionable though. Ah well we can dream...  

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

I hunted for cold.....and got 25cm of snow in one sitting....bloody awesome winter for me, bring on the CFS!

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
17 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Now we have springtime warmth charts being posted in the hunt for cold thread!! That's it, the handbag, the towels, hell, the whole wardrobe is being thrown in.

Next Sunday remember........

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
3 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

I hunted for cold.....and got 25cm of snow in one sitting....bloody awesome winter for me, bring on the CFS!

You were lucky.  Central southern England was in the sweet spot.  Very little for the masses in London - 75 miles further east and it would have top billing on the news for a few days.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
4 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

I hunted for cold.....and got 25cm of snow in one sitting....bloody awesome winter for me, bring on the CFS!

Aye thing is no cold to hunt just now, except for silly cherry picking GEFS ens

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snefnug Seasoned

snefnug

Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
Posted
18 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Now we have springtime warmth charts being posted in the hunt for cold thread!! That's it, the handbag, the towels, hell, the whole wardrobe is being thrown in.

I expect that room to be tidied  up by teatime!     Mummy.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Don said:

Next Sunday remember........

I just watched countryfile Don, I'm actually starting to warm up my throwing arm now

Edited by Mattwolves
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Is this the winter post-mortem thread? LoL!  Little discussion of today's 12z runs, so here's T168 on FV3 and ECM

image.thumb.jpg.915246c235103a96c2f83a22ce88cda3.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.9a47183d7b60404cd8e004683a6a444a.jpg

Both showing decent amplification at this stage, and this is at the very edge of anything reliable, so a good sign.  Neither run goes on to build a decent block, I should say, but if the trend strengthens on subsequent runs we could see something better.

Edited by Mike Poole
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted
3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

You were lucky.  Central southern England was in the sweet spot.  Very little for the masses in London - 75 miles further east and it would have top billing on the news for a few days.

as Clark Gable once said 'Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn'....lol....sorry, just jesting......25cm not from an easterly, but from a nice channel runner/slider....lovely and just goes to show even darn sarf here you don't need a raging easterly to get the best snow events, and the modelling was pretty much on the ball for this from T48 out

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