Cold hunt - models and chat

[snowfish1]

Wel the gfs latest run is a snorefest. From Monday onwards high pressure lurks on or around us never going far. So very benign and very boring for us coldies. Hurry up and get warmer if we can't have snow and ice days. It's enough to drive one mad. Gggrrrr. 

Edited February 10, 2019 by snowfish1

[oliverek7]

2 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Wel the gfs latest run is a snorefest. From Monday onwards high pressure lurks on or around us never going far. So very benign and very boring for us coldies. Hurry up and get warmer if we can't have snow and ice days. It's enough to drive one mad. Gggrrrr. 

So irritating that a few days ago both gfs and ec were showing high pressure to the northeast which would have given us an easterly and blocking! But that poxy high is now to southeast and, just to rub it in, is drawing up very mild air from all the way south! Disgusting weather!

[mb018538]

From yesterday and the day before we had a slight hint that the Canadian lobe may relax or disappear for a while....well both the GFS and ECM show it really intensifying by day 10 once again. So basically it looks pants, and by day 10 we will be into the last week of February. Tick tock....

[Climate Man]

FV3 FI, is though, a thing of beauty and one day it will be correct - won't it!?

[karyo]

24 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Don’t forget to look out the window in the hunt for snow. Rain turning to sleet here in Herts with a temp of just 2c, I am 110asl so don’t be surprised to see snow on the back edge the of this system, especially on high ground.

It says a lot about what our winters have become if we are pleased with some back edge sleet or wet snow in February.

[SMU]

Hum FV3 downgrades the warm flow -

-8c just to our SE at 138

Almost a good chart that-

[Had Worse]

A new thread must be imminent.

"The hunt for straws to clutch."

Needless to say, next week gives a chance to turn our attention to other things not involving weather watching etc. Just aswell,as its Valentines day soon and the weather is having a breather from eye candy in the reliable.

Wife wouldn't be too impressed if I was giving more attention to my phone or PC instead of her lol.

[JoeShmoe]

4 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Fear not, Darren Bett is grinning and the background signals are still looking GREAT!!..and the week ahead looks mild and benign with temps around 11-12c..

Thats going to feel nice in any sunshine, daffs will be out

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hum FV3 downgrades the warm flow -

-8c just to our SE at 138

Almost a good chart that-

Its been doing that for the last few runs but unfortunately more than likely wrong!!!the fv3 performance has been just as bad as the normal gfs to be honest!!better off just keeping the operational lol!!if it was to be right though then you would expect the other models to latch on this evening!!

[Summer Sun]

22 minutes ago, shaky said:

Its been doing that for the last few runs but unfortunately more than likely wrong!!!the fv3 performance has been just as bad as the normal gfs to be honest!!better off just keeping the operational lol!!if it was to be right though then you would expect the other models to latch on this evening!!

GFS P (yellow line) is a clear cold outlier

[Blizzardof82]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS P (yellow line) is a clear cold outlier

I would rather say trendsetter.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Even though I'm still pinning my hopes on a colder end to the month with perhaps at last some interest, it's worth pointing out as you all no that the best predictions out there from the most knowledgeable on here to the more senior figures in meteorology have been left bemused with how this winter as turned out. The background signals pointed to it right? As an example the summer of 2015 which was highlighted as being a warm and dry season indeed turned out to be one of the coldest in 20 years. With 3 times the average rainfall occurring. Another example of long range models failing to see low pressure setting up shop to the west of us and bringing such unsettled conditions. My point behind all this, is senior officials back in 2015 were pointing out that long range and seasonal forecasting is very much still an infancy, and much more research needs to be done. Maybe we should bare this in mind next winter with a more open mind, as poor background signals nextime could well mean we are pointing to a much colder winter!

[Nick F]

Has become rather tiring following the models now for me, it is quite clear that despite the SSW and MJO cycling through favourable colder phases a few times over the last few months contrarily there has been no pattern change to trigger HLB and this looks to remain the case for the next few weeks.

There has been episodes this winter where big atmospheric drivers, which can force pattern changes for the better, such as MJO, SOI and of course the SSW to start the year have been forecast by models several times to manifest favourably to have impacts on the upper patterns that would normally promote high latitude blocking that would at least turn the NAO negative and increase our chances of seeing deep cold and less marginal snow events.

However, in case of the MJO, we've seen head through 7-8 back in early January, before heading into COD, but no high latitude blocking to show for it for the rest of the month, we've seen since the start of the month the MJO slowly move out of 6 into 7 only to stall and head back into 6. This stalling is not really not going to help promote enough poleward amplification other than north across Europe. The model forecast do suggest, at varying speeds, the MJO heading back through 7 and on through 8, GFS slower but more amplified than the quicker ECMWF. But, the models predictions haven't been great with the MJO this winter, with the reality of the stalling and slow progression of the MJO back and forth in 6 or 7 this month so far probably why we are seeing the Euro height rises but not any hints of HLB down the line.

Since Dec 31 2018

Forecasts from GEFS and EC

There could be various reasons why the MJO impacts on the upper patterns of the mid-to-high latitudes of the N  is rather muted, there has been some discussion on twittersphere and American forums that the SSW at the start of the year and the way it had developed and manifested has hindered the usual positive impacts of the MJO going into 'colder' HLB promoting phases. But also the neutral ENSO has also played a role. We are currently seeing a more La Nina-esque look to the upper flow patterns over N America and N Atlantic (with -PNA and +NAO), the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) is normally negative during El Nino and positive during La Nina - and low and behold it has mostly been in positive (Nina) territory this winter so far, with just brief recent dip to neutral barely negative and now on the rise again. This has been in tandem with a +NAO too.

El Nino usually better for promoting HLB in conjunction with MJO colder phases, the progression of MJO into 8-1 as forecast models should go hand in hand with a -SOI, but I am sceptical whether we get out of 7 quickly as ECWMF suggest. So we could see more of the same flat pattern of low heights to the north and Euro heights for next few weeks.

So with the above in mind, it really exposes the limitations of using MJO forecasts and stratosphere forecasts along with AAM/GWO predictions to predict very far ahead, beyond 10-15 days at least, with any confidence. As this winter has shown, there's just too many conflicting signals. The tropical oscillations, stratosphere state along with AAM/GWO are still valid predictive tools, but must be used with caution. Many professional meteorologists both in the UK and USA use them to predict a few weeks to a month ahead, but have busted by predicting cold wintry weather and instead its warmed up .Some more daringly do a forecast all three winter months using longer-term predictors such as ENSO forecasts combined with QBO and longer range NWP forecasts such as CFS, EC46, JMA, GLoSEA, etc. But equally there have been some big busts on winter forecasts.

So, where does that leave us for the rest of the winter? Well, I have low confidence atm of any change that will bring HLB. There is still a possibility IF the MJO can get a move on through 8-1, yes the models show it atm, but we are still stuck in 6/7 with no real impetus to move for now. I would earmark the final few days and beginning of March for a pattern change that may promote HLB, if the MJO wave impacts the upper patterns with out interference from other drivers, but there is also no guarantee that the HLB will develop in a favourable position either. Could end up to far west to our NW for example.

We have 3 weeks left of February and most of March to still get some snow, but it looks like the next few weeks would be hard pushed to see any for most. It will take a pretty brutal deep cold blast to bring ice days and lying snow for long in March too and early March 2018  or March 2013 are unlikely to come every year, so worth lowering expectations in that regards.

 

Edited February 10, 2019 by Nick F

[Summer Sun]

06z ens following recent runs with the milder air peaking on Friday afterwards we have a steady climb down but the mean remains above the 30-year average from Tuesday onwards

[Don]

Towel is washed and ready for next weekend.......

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Towel is washed and ready for next weekend.......

Good job it will be laundry day Don. Let's just get everyone in here to throw em in next Sunday, hell, ill even do my rounds and collect em!!

Edited February 10, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Don]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Good job it will be laundry day Don. Let's just get everyone in here and throw em in next Sunday, hell, ill even do my rounds and collect em!!

Great stuff, I'm up for that!

[sunnijim]

10 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Has become rather tiring following the models now for me, it is quite clear that despite the SSW and MJO cycling through favourable colder phases a few times over the last few months contrarily there has been no pattern change to trigger HLB and this looks to remain the case for the next few weeks.

There has been episodes this winter where big atmospheric drivers, which can force pattern changes for the better, such as MJO, SOI and of course the SSW to start the year have been forecast by models several times to manifest favourably to have impacts on the upper patterns that would normally promote high latitude blocking that would at least turn the NAO negative and increase our chances of seeing deep cold and less marginal snow events.

However, in case of the MJO, we've seen head through 7-8 back in early January, before heading into COD, but no high latitude blocking to show for it for the rest of the month, we recently since start of the month see the MJO slowly move out of 6 into 7 only to stall and head back into 6. This stalling is not really not going to help promote enough poleward amplification other than north across Europe. The model forecast do suggest, at varying speeds, the MJO heading back through 7 and on through 8, GFS slower but more amplified than the quicker ECMWF. But, the models predictions haven't been great with the MJO this winter, with the reality of the stalling and slow progression of the MJO back and forth in 6 or 7 this month so far probably why we are seeing the Euro height rises but not any hints of HLB down the line.

Since Dec 31 2018

Forecasts from GEFS and EC

There could be various reasons why the MJO impacts on the upper patterns of the mid-to-high latitudes of the N  is rather muted, there has been some discussion on twittersphere and American forums that the SSW at the start of the year and the way it had developed and manifested has hindered the usual positive impacts of the MJO going into 'colder' HLB promoting phases. But also the neutral ENSO has also played a role. We are currently seeing a more La Nina-esque look to the upper flow patterns over N America and N Atlantic (with -PNA and +NAO), the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) is normally negative during El Nino and positive during La Nina - and low and behold it has mostly been in positive (Nina) territory this winter so far, with just brief recent dip to neutral barely negative and now on the rise again. This has been in tandem with a +NAO too.

El Nino usually better for promoting HLB in conjunction with MJO colder phases, the progression of MJO into 8-1 as forecast models should go hand in hand with a -SOI, but I am sceptical whether we get out of 7 quickly as ECWMF suggest. So we could see more of the same flat pattern of low heights to the north and Euro heights for next few weeks.

So with the above in mind, it really exposes the limitations of using MJO forecasts and stratosphere forecasts along with AAM/GWO predictions to predict very far ahead, beyond 10-15 days at least, with any confidence. As this winter has shown, there's just too many conflicting signals. The tropical oscillations, stratosphere state along with AAM/GWO are still valid predictive tools, but must be used with caution. Many professional meteorologists both in the UK and USA use them to predict a few weeks to a month ahead, but have busted by predicting cold wintry weather and instead its warmed up .Some more daringly for do a forecast all three winter months using longer-term predictors such as ENSO forecasts combined with QBO and longer range NWP forecasts such as CFS, EC46, JMA, GLoSEA, etc. But equally there have been some big busts on winter forecasts.

So, where does that leave us for the rest of the winter? Well, I have low confidence atm of any change that will bring HLB. There is still a possibility IF the MJO can get a move on through 8-1, yes the models show it atm, but we are still stuck in 6/7 with no real impetus to move for now. I would earmark the final few days and beginning of March for a pattern change that may promote HLB, if the MJO wave impacts the upper patterns with out interference from other drivers, but there is also no guarantee that the HLB will develop in a favourable position either. Could end up to far west to our NW for example.

We have 3 weeks left of February and most of March to still get some snow, but it looks like the next few weeks would be hard pushed to see any for most. It will take a pretty brutal deep cold blast to bring ice days and lying snow for long in March too and early March 2018  or March 2013 are unlikely to come every year, so worth lowering expectations in that regards.

 

 

The most informative,level headed and truthful post I have seen on these forums for many a month.

I suggest people look back on this post in winters to come when they consider buying into some of these outlandish,but well written/meaning posts that predict snowmageddon somewhere down the line due to this or that global driver.

[Gowon]

Same old crap every winter.. Atlantic lows just blast away everything and we're left with dull boring weather

 

[markw2680]

I wouldn’t bother throwing the towel in just yet as changes can happen and happen pretty quick, plus I’d rather find a villa towel to burn

[Purga]

1 hour ago, Climate Man said:

FV3 FI, is though was, a thing of beauty and one day it will be correct - won't it!?

Tidied for you - it's now joined the yawnsville concensus even in FI

sadly

Maybe time to consider switching myself, very early, into what I term 'summer mode' i.e. not bothering at all with LRF's (better things to do) and just taking a cursory glance at the phone Apps or models no more than +144hr to check if it's going to rain or not!

Much less stressful than being led up the garden path like a lamb to the slaughter in the 'winter' season!

 

Edited February 10, 2019 by Purga

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Same old crap every winter.. Atlantic lows just blast away everything and we're left with dull boring weather

 

well that is largely our climate for wintsr, that is the normal weather pattern for winter so not sure what that moan is all about. All that said blocking can and do occur and sometimes it runs favourably and sometimes its blocked but much drier.

Problem with next week, we have a blocking high but in the worse position for us in terms of wanting any type of winter weathe really as it will turn progressively milder and any frost and fog will be very limited due to cloud cover and increasing winds.

[shaky]

31 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS P (yellow line) is a clear cold outlier

Funny thing is if it was the other way around and all the other enesmbles were strongly favouring cold and there was that one mild outlier all of them would join that mild outlier run by run!!!its happened quite a few times this winter!!

[Nick F]

30 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

The most informative,level headed and truthful post I have seen on these forums for many a month.

I suggest people look back on this post in winters to come when they consider buying into some of these outlandish,but well written/meaning posts that predict snowmageddon somewhere down the line due to this or that global driver.

Thanks, I've been guilty on a number of occasions this winter of getting carried away and jumping on the SSW and/or MJO going through 'colder' phases being a definite force for good and WILL change the patterns without addressing the caveats too. Some do of course attach the caveats of caution to the possible benefits of the 'positive' signals, something I will certainly do from now on, after those positive signals have clearly not manifested in the troposphere (such as SSW) or have been overridden by other factors (MJO). Worth pointing out the drivers and teleconnections are still a useful tool, but being too confident in their use to predict more than 10 days ahead can easily end up with too many bust forecasts. This winter has been a good test for those longer range predictions.

Onwards and upwards, still plenty of time for the pattern to change to bring one or two more last hurrahs of cold and snow, but I suspect in similar vein of the winter so far they may be brief and marginal affairs. Noticed posts discussing the solar minimum, yes we are reaching it, but we could bottom out this year and into early 2020 before activity curve rises back up. Cold winters can occur when the activity has started to rise out from the min, 2010/11 winter was on the rise from solar minimum, so potential we could still get two cold winters a row.

Edited February 10, 2019 by Nick F

[Don]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Cold winters can occur when the activity has started to rise out from the min, 2010/11 winter was on the rise from solar minimum, so potential we could still get two cold winters in the row.

That was my understanding, too, that colder winter's tend to occur just after solar minimum, rather than during.  Could be a lag effect?