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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Meanwhile in the hunt for mild thread, the Ecm 12z shows charts to drool over..similar to the Gfs 12z next week.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

EC at 48 - this little low is new? Just a wave on the other models. 

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probaly to mild for snow but if the flow can wrap around and drag in colder air on its northern flank....

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

I still think we should at least manage a continental direction to the flow by late next week, for a time before the big Pacific-driven shift (via a powerful MJO-driven cross-polar ridge) to focus blocking W and NW of the UK. There's room for a bit of an undercut of the ridge from the polar vortex-driven low heights across Asia but the models tend to be poor at picking up on this until shorter notice. Nov 2010 saw one of the strongest examples of this I can recall; the models didn't really see the initial cold undercut that affected us final week of Nov (ahead of the main spell in Dec driven by mid-Atlantic to Greenland-focused blocking) until just 4 or 5 day's range.

Regardless, I expect GFS is being too 'clean' with the high pressure in its raw output for mid-late next week; not enough fog pegging temps back during the day. Some lucky spots could manage some clear, springlike weather though (from the perspective of those who enjoy an early taste of spring as and when it's taking place).

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Meanwhile in the hunt for mild thread, the Ecm 12z shows charts to drool over..similar to the Gfs 12z next week.

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Look at all that WAA, the building blocks are there. Not in the right place initially but cold easterlies are often preceded by this type of pattern.

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Greeny high all the way for me none of this mamsy pamsy scandy high business.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
14 minutes ago, legritter said:

Just thought i would let all Cold Hunters know that Legritter is about and ready for a good HUNT  ,Something is brewing  nothing is set in stone  .If i may just add todays exeter update , they are seeing high pressure and hinting at something wintry  , i know many will say that they have been saying this all winter so far but we have the possibility of high pressure setting up in a good position .So come on Gang , C H Q S ,Cold Hunters Quick  Step  , sausage sandwiches ,STellas ,cheers 

I do hope you're right, LG...So long as you haven't lost your...image.thumb.png.7f96d344bbeee2b6b15e8511968f621f.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Sadly the ext EPS are not really improving.  The mean suggests a very intense mid-Atlantic trough with Euro heights.  Without lower heights into Europe, there is no route to cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Sadly the ext EPS are not really improving.  The mean suggests a very intense mid-Atlantic trough with Euro heights.  Without lower heights into Europe, there is no route to cold.

Yes, they looked bad at 240 - suspected and feared you would be bringing us bad news.

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I won't be convinced or start getting excited till these setups are 5 days away,sorry guys but like many I'm done with getting my hopes up with FI charts ,but for now we have an interesting development coming later Sunday into early Monday with a real snow risk as a low slips southeast ward 

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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

It’s on like donkey kong

and if it ain’t it’s sweet

its not like we have been hunting all winter

we got this

its coming

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
18 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Sadly the ext EPS are not really improving.  The mean suggests a very intense mid-Atlantic trough with Euro heights.  Without lower heights into Europe, there is no route to cold.

Oh dear, not a great evening tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
8 minutes ago, snowbob said:

It could be just forget the models

they are just a guess 

Just sit back relax and enjoy what’s around you 

enjoy your family and  have a great evening 

it’s just weather

you ain’t ever getting this time back 

Mother Nature will carry on

so should we

 

 

 

Agree with most of this, but let's just hope mother nature doesn't carry on giving us the same dross up until now!!

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
31 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Sadly the ext EPS are not really improving.  The mean suggests a very intense mid-Atlantic trough with Euro heights.  Without lower heights into Europe, there is no route to cold.

There a complete waste of time, of late anyway. They swing wildly from day to day and seem to follow the operation run into the extended outlook. They’ve been very inconsistent this winter. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
12 minutes ago, snowbob said:

It could be just forget the models

they are just a guess 

Just sit back relax and enjoy what’s around you 

enjoy your family and  have a great evening 

it’s just weather

you ain’t ever getting this time back 

Mother Nature will carry on

so should we

 

 

 

Poxy weather!!  Or should that be poxy models, or both!!

Agree with the above.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Yes agree the ecm extended haven’t been great this winter so I’m not to worried about them yet . We would of had 5 cold spells 8ft snow drifts and frozen lakes if the eps had come off this winter . Hope Nick (BA) doesn’t see this post he won’t be happy that I’ve slag off his bestie model .

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The models can be stonkers, they don't always get it right;

The weather can be marvellous, but more likely it's just s...e!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes agree the ecm extended haven’t been great this winter so I’m not to worried about them yet . We would of had 5 cold spells 8ft snow drifts and frozen lakes if the eps had come off this winter . Hope Nick (BA) doesn’t see this post he won’t be happy that I’ve slag off his bestie model .

Has any model been great this winter?

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, Don said:

Has any model been great this winter?

Aye, the ones that predict little cold for the UK, the I.R 252 model

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes agree the ecm extended haven’t been great this winter so I’m not to worried about them yet . We would of had 5 cold spells 8ft snow drifts and frozen lakes if the eps had come off this winter . Hope Nick (BA) doesn’t see this post he won’t be happy that I’ve slag off his bestie model .

Let’s see how the extended EPS handled today. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
4 minutes ago, Don said:

Has any model been great this winter?

Definitely not they’ve all been poor Don even the Met haven’t been great . Not anyone’s fault just another unpredictable winter . 

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, shotski said:

Let’s see how the extended EPS handled today. 

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You need really to put the anomaly from today up but at that range the ensemble mean might not necessarily be all that useful anyway.

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