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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
4 minutes ago, Don said:

It seems to be on a knife edge between a very mild end to February or very cold?

Pretty much the mean remains above the 30-year average from around Wednesday but a lot of scatter from later next week

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.cd496312fefc2637f6e7bbc56bf35104.png

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
26 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

IMO that was due to the SSW downwelling interfering with the signal. SSW over now,  so.....

The SSW delivered..just the on the wrong side of the Atlantic..is shaping up to be a very cold Feb indeed over here.

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Pretty much the mean remains above the 30-year average from around Wednesday but a lot of scatter from later next week

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.cd496312fefc2637f6e7bbc56bf35104.png

Looks vile..... mild dross 

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Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey

For a fact...anyone who looks for breakdown and a path to mild in a 'hunt for cold thread' is just a serial reverse phcology merchant more desperate for a beast than anyone else. 

 

After a break for a week or 2 I'm well up for a chase! Let's go!

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

even the GFS test model has it very mild for next week grass cutting shortly at this rate only positive at least its dry  

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Edited by igloo
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

it could be that we don't manage to get any of the lows coming into the atlantic able to drive enough WAA to deliver a scandi ridge with the systems continually flattening the pattern - until we get the ridge off the esb that is driven ne to greeny/griceland by waa from the system following behind. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Well there we have it folks, in the space of 2 hours we have brought the cold in, ended it and brought the mild back in, to the point where some posts say....... Well at least you you will be able to get ya grass cut next week!! Bizzare, you just couldn't script it any better

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I suspect that on subsequent suites the scandi high option will diminish even more, not necessarily for the worse though, this was signposted relatively early so if the uppers were going to be frigid, you would have seen a lot more flatliners on the 850's graph, looking for Iceland or Greenland now for the ridge.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Loving the GFS 12z op.

Shifts from +mild 850s down to -10 (Northern England) in 24 hours!!!

FI of course,  but something is definitely on the move with regards to the mid term pattern. Can we manage a cold end to winter, I think we could.

0EFB07F3-7365-4262-9B52-292A1F6D63BF.thumb.png.59706010dc788f65bb3e03fb4bbc0839.png36BB3660-882E-40A6-97AB-0E65909ED9C0.thumb.png.801f2e0ea493c625782b789e5d460358.png

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I suspect that on subsequent suites the scandi high option will diminish even more, not necessarily for the worse though, this was signposted relatively early so if the uppers were going to be frigid, you would have seen a lot more flatliners on the 850's graph, looking for Iceland or Greenland now for the ridge.

Greeny high all the way for me none of this mamsy pamsy scandy high business.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Also with a scandi high, you sometimes have nowhere else to go when either the back end sags out on the Eastern flank into Europe and no cold uppers have been delivered or when the Jet just fires up over the top and sinks it (2012), it didn't matter what the background signals were then, the met office forecast collapsed from very good to very poor in 48 hours, don't get me wrong, Easterlies are the holy grail of UK setups, like watching those stunning high maintenance super model types, very beautiful but very fragile, probably not actually that healthy, so worth the gamble but only when the uppers are -10 or below, preferable -13c or below late feb and also low 500mb heights required, not those dry types, in this instance the further West initially any Northern blocking sets up, the better, apart from a West based -NAO, that almost always is the death knell for a potential cold spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Greeny high all the way for me none of this mamsy pamsy scandy high business.

Beast my favourite but need really cold mid level profile by late feb.

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Posted
  • Location: Durham
  • Location: Durham
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Also with a scandi high, you sometimes have nowhere else to go when either the back end sags out on the Eastern flank into Europe and no cold uppers have been delivered or when the Jet just fires up over the top and sinks it (2012), it didn't matter what the background signals were then, the met office forecast collapsed from very good to very poor in 48 hours, don't get me wrong, Easterlies are the holy grail of UK setups, like watching those stunning high maintenance super model types, very beautiful but very fragile, probably not actually that healthy, so worth the gamble but only when the uppers are -10 or below, preferable -13c or below late feb and also low 500mb heights required, not those dry types, in this instance the further West initially any Northern blocking sets up, the better, apart from a West based -NAO, that almost always is the death knell for a potential cold spell.

Does your full stop button work? 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

I havent looked at EC but judging by the lack of comments i can only assume its not great.

I looked and refer the honourable gentlemen to the benny hill gif..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

A chiller start to next week but that is quickly replaced by milder air on tonights 12z ECM.

Obviously this time of year it could still be quite chilly by day if any fog were to form overnight and not during the day nights are also likely to be frosty under the high

ECMOPEU12_72_2.thumb.png.5efa97ca7c24d708831cb1ddad64a769.pngECMOPEU12_120_2.thumb.png.17491fc6f7d5562ef6101dbd987bde61.png

ECMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.361e2c402088c9537e0e7c1daf5627df.pngECMOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.07319fec68990352508da29008a97ca9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
9 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

Does your full stop button work? 

No but his commas work perfectly,,,,,,

As for the Gfs 12z operational..I love those Arctic reloads in low res..must be the background signals:gathering:,,:cold-emoji: 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I havent looked at EC but judging by the lack of comments i can only assume its not great.

Great for members that hate rain!

ECM1-168.GIF?08-0

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄

Wish we could have the names of the members back at the bottom of the page again. You never know if your alone in here anymore.. Added to the atmosphere in here when you could see a cold spell coming and the members count would increase daily lol.. plus it's nice to know who's online. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
On 06/02/2019 at 19:52, bluearmy said:

 

I've not looked at the models at all this week until now, interesting runs being shown, looks like heights will ridge through from the south next week, how far north they travel is the question, and interaction with the northern arm of the jet which once again after trying to move up a gear this week looks like falling down again - a theme of the last 12 months.. Lots of potential outcomes as follows:

1. Ridge settles over the UK  for a few days, either sinks south with the jet riding over the top, or decides to retrogress NW or indeed NE

2. Ridge builds NE quickly pulling in a shortlived easterly feed, then retrogression to the NW

3. Ridge builds then sinks to the SE, with a balmy SW flow developing

If this was any other time of year, I'd say scenario 3, but come mid Feb, northerlies and easterlies have a far greater chance of verifying..

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I havent looked at EC but judging by the lack of comments i can only assume its not great.

yes back looking at 10+ days charts for anything positive again this sums it up 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I havent looked at EC but judging by the lack of comments i can only assume its not great.

Slow burner.  Day 10 chart has "potential".  At least it should be dry after the awful weather of the last few days.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Day 9 GFS 12z CEB1CD23-6D5C-4CE2-803F-2893A727E89D.thumb.png.e98510445556bd3684cdf52c4691bdab.png

 

ECM 12z day 10 2F44A131-1FDB-4287-8A3B-246BD71AABBB.thumb.png.f4f8229b2362c436a3cb1edbfa0c3de9.png

 

Very very similar and we all know where the gfs went after . Doh I’ve done it again posted charts after day 5 . 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Some posts seeming to talk up colder weather, others saying there is nothing in the output to suggest it. At the end of the day the all important wind direction will depend on subtle shifts in the energy and phasing of atmospheric waves across our part of the hemisphere. So as these waves slow down a blocking high pressure is likely to form across NW Europe. The position of this is gonna be crucial to how cold we can get. So next week as we all no is looking rather mehh,  benign if you like, I think we are starting to see some evidence of a blocking high  drifting into scandanavia by perhaps later next weekend. As you no once established blocking highs can be difficult to shift, and remain in place much longer than many models think. There will be an ongoing risk of easterlies if this devoloment takes place and although perhaps a good deal of dry weather about with frosty nights, we may have to look at the Atlantic to try and dislodge the block and inject that bit of moisture we need for snow. Obviously as the month progresses and we enter March it may be that much more more intense cold from Northern Russia is required to really bring the goods, this may seem unlikely, but tbh we said the same thing this time last year, and we all no how that delivered!! So it's all to play for really, crucial we get that block into the right place as a starting point, hopefully we should me much more clearer this time next week. But I certainly wouldn't be down playing it just yet, as last year proved, expect the unexpected!!

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