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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

sliders or undercutting .......will we have a cold enough continent to deliver snowfall ahead of frontal incursions or sliders ???

at the moment I wouldn’t be too confident ........think we need a proper easterly or nor’easter as the days get longer ...... 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

I think I'm getting model fatigue lol. I think il give up looking at the models until after the weekend I think and see where we are then. 18z not the best for cold easterly but only one run.

Yep, only one run, the clusters are looking good for some kind of blocking to devolop, never take to much notice of only the operational run, the EPS show much more in depth detail, and bare in mind the 18z as far less data input then say the oz and 12z, so not always wise for this run to put you off.

Edited by Mattwolves
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Popular Post
Posted

Eps/gefs..

500 geo-pots..

Id say reprasentavie of many clusters!.

And a certain big starting point for desirable blocking...

Forcing and placements begin 2 take the upper hands...

@my punt..= the most notable spell of winter is awaiting in the wings....keep watching...

 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted

I think the 18z GFS ordered a summer sun special!!

The ens hint at it being on the mild side at T168... a few suggest that an easterly could develop later though the OP also has a fair amount of support

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

ECM showing a Continental flow by mid-Month, Mainly for the South as per Met extended...

ecmt850_240.thumb.png.048ed4a01924788b9f6ded521b7cac44.png

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted
Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

That’s yesterday’s chart...

Wups, Need more coffee.

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Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted
9 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

A bit of a borefest with Ukmo 0z at 144t with the high stuck over the UK ☹️

65780192-8887-4685-83C9-344BE6A3C60A.gif

That could evolve to something decent from that position.

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Im not even gona bother lookin at the charts cos you just know what rubbish shall be shown for cold lovers and whatever good there is will be yes i will say it........10 Days or more away and stay there!!anyway time for a run

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Well I’m liking the output this morning, I know we’re not getting an easterly at days 5 and 6 but the models definitely going the right way . Greenland is the destination

6A76EF61-9A10-4F93-B21F-8286988DEC71.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Im not even gona bother lookin at the charts cos you just know what rubbish shall be shown for cold lovers and whatever good there is will be yes i will say it........10 Days or more away and stay there!!anyway time for a run

We already have lots of runs out.

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
26 minutes ago, shaky said:

Im not even gona bother lookin at the charts cos you just know what rubbish shall be shown for cold lovers and whatever good there is will be yes i will say it........10 Days or more away and stay there!!anyway time for a run

Much better than trying to comment on every frame wouldn’t you say? At least it’s not looking great, oh scrap that lol. Think it’s time I started running again. Maybe my new hobby

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

For the first time i can recall this winter , the 46 is showing a decent retrogressive signal within week three .....the period 20/25th feb though uppers and T2’s aren’t very responsive so perhaps there is a spread across quite different clusters and ........ some west based neg NAO solutions .........

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)

Huge change on the eps, potent Easterly all but gone but Greenland / iceland high much stronger possibility.

EDIT : in short they are going to look worse in Graph form at 240 but MAY look spectacularly better in the extended.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Huge change on the eps, potent Easterly all but gone but Greenland / iceland high much stronger possibility.

EDIT : in short they are going to look worse in Graph form at 240 but MAY look spectacularly better in the extended.

Potent? 

When was it potent ?

btw, see my post in the focussed thread - the easterly is still there on the spreads 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

For the first time i can recall this winter , the 46 is showing a decent retrogressive signal within week three .....the period 20/25th feb though uppers and T2’s aren’t very responsive so perhaps there is a spread across quite different clusters and ........ some west based neg NAO solutions .........

It did look a bit west based to be honest, the Atlantic trough being the giveaway.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

Potent? 

When was it potent ?

btw, see my post in the focussed thread - the easterly is still there on the spreads 

it wasn't, it was only a hopecast really with little support, surprised it hasn't been extinguished completely looking at the mean.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Clusters awaited - how big is the W euro ridge in the extended ?? Hopefully it’s either Griceland wedge/ridge or not and we don’t get a pesky ridge hanging back Se across the uk preventing the cold from reaching here as valuable winter days  tick by ....

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

These Background Signals just get better and better don't they!!!:crazy:

00_384_uk2mtmp.png

00_384_mslp850.png

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