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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
1 hour ago, booferking said:

Let's see who can spin positives out of the image below

 

UW144-21.gif

It’s better than what we’ve got now lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
1 minute ago, booferking said:

Dare i said but potentially the biggest ECM run of the year coming up.

Agreed, in fact I’d go as far as saying this crucial ECM is make or break

 

make or break for the sanity of this thread

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Fv3 ending on quite a cold note with uppers heading towards -10C 

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
2 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Agreed, in fact I’d go as far as saying this crucial ECM is make or break

 

make or break for the sanity of this thread

 

Must have missed something, Why so crucial when promised lands is at long range? 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 hour ago, booferking said:

Let's see who can spin positives out of the image below

 

UW144-21.gif

At least it will be mild?....

giphy.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 hours ago, booferking said:

Let's see who can spin positives out of the image below

 

UW144-21.gif

Summer Sun won't like it, but good chart for me, no rain, not windy, and not average uk in Feb

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Summer Sun won't like it, but good chart for me, no rain, not windy, and not average uk in Feb

Summer Sun would like that chart!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Summer Sun would like that chart!

nah, its too settled, this is SS chart

ECM1-48.GIF?07-0

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
21 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

Fv3 ending on quite a cold note with uppers heading towards -10C 

Well you may have seen the end of it but it is still rolling sluggishly where I'm watching!  FV3 at T264:

image.thumb.jpg.ba4cb8494488cc8c4bec191fa8d63089.jpg

Looking very promising!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well you may have seen the end of it but it is still rolling sluggishly where I'm watching!  FV3 at T264:

image.thumb.jpg.ba4cb8494488cc8c4bec191fa8d63089.jpg

Looking very promising!

No it ends rubbish, south Westerlies for a time right at the end.

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

Out to 120 on Meteociel now and it looks like it's less amplified. Not by much, but still, hopefully it's not a trend.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

ECM T120 was better on yesterday’s 12z here is T96 today for comparison. Yesterday’s first . 

956FC89A-7C03-45C2-8C67-F102DED0195C.png

9BC21149-B938-435E-8B73-0AEE7BC9913F.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No it ends rubbish, south Westerlies for a time right at the end.

Fair enough if you say so, I'll not bother watching the rest. Academic though, as I wouldn't trust anything beyond day 6 at the moment.  

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

nah, its too settled, this is SS chart

ECM1-48.GIF?07-0

He would loath that chart.

 

His favourite weather is very settled and as warm/mild as possible as he works outside I believe? 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM T120 was better on yesterday’s 12z here is T96 today for comparison. Yesterday’s first . 

 

 

Yes, definitely a flatter trend on today's 12z runs, people may not want to hear it but if it continues on the 0z runs then history tells us it rarely recovers and it usually spells game over.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, definitely a flatter trend on today's 12z runs, people may not want to hear it but if it continues on the 0z runs then history tells us it rarely recovers and it usually spells game over.

Last week to 10 days of February probably the best chance now for a cold spell.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Don said:

Last week to 10 days of February probably the best chance now for a cold spell.

Or maybe the last week of June the way things are going..:crazy:

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
8 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Out to 120 on Meteociel now and it looks like it's less amplified. Not by much, but still, hopefully it's not a trend.

Sadly it was, out to 144 now and all a lot flatter than it was, while not totally flat!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Or maybe the last week of June the way things are going..:crazy:

Or maybe the first week with a snow event like June 2nd 1975?!

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well you may have seen the end of it but it is still rolling sluggishly where I'm watching!  FV3 at T264:

image.thumb.jpg.ba4cb8494488cc8c4bec191fa8d63089.jpg

Looking very promising!

Correct and it's the same at 240z BEFORE low res

 

 

gfsnh-0-240 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Yesterday’s T168 and today’s T144 . Definitely gone the wrong way . I thought the ecm was king ? Have no confidence in it at all anymore after this winter . 

38AD25AC-EB72-48DA-B86C-F2E904AE4CB6.png

2BC24A49-88EE-44B5-89F5-7DEF9FC3B0EB.png

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