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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Let's see who can spin positives out of the image below

 

UW144-21.gif

It'll be warm.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Let's see who can spin positives out of the image below

 

UW144-21.gif

There is no positive spin its just boring and yeh i say it again FLAT with energy goin over the top!!

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Blimey that UKMO chart is absolutely HIDEOUS, has to be the worst chart of winter so far! Absolutely shocking. 

 

At least things can only get better from that, surely? (And DONT call me Shirley)

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Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
8 minutes ago, booferking said:

Let's see who can spin positives out of the image below

 

UW144-21.gif

Er, it's a day 6 chart and the real fun starts after day 10?

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

UKMO day 6 though not amazing is far from a doom and gloom chart.  Let's wait for the other output before throwing the toys out!

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Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Just now, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-126.png?12

GFS still backing away from Amplification.

That chart would not lead to anything of note beyond day 10, maybe day 15

Day 15 is beyond day 10.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Also the crappy arpege backs down from any atlantic amplification and goes crawling towards ukmo and gfs like it normally does after being a little stubborn!!

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
12 minutes ago, shaky said:

There is no positive spin its just boring and yeh i say it again FLAT with energy goin over the top!!

The PV is coalescing though getting ready to move East as the MJO wave builds a stonking ridge by Day 12.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

UKMO day 6 though not amazing is far from a doom and gloom chart.  Let's wait for the other output before throwing the toys out!

No toys just comical watching this winter unfold I'm actually enjoying it now and the trap people keep falling into. "Potential Day 10"

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
8 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Day 15 is beyond day 10.

yes almost a week after   Which is another way of saying the route to cold from that chart is a longer route than the one before.

Most models today (after the 0z's) have pretty much killed any easterly by day 10.

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Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
9 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs flat again!!fun begins at day 10 i hear!!well let me just say it shall stay at day 10 like it has all winter

I'm loving the reverse psychology approach Shaky 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Same old same old, everyone seems to talk up an incoming cold spell during the evening, then start to play it all down again through the day, the amplication, the amplication, everything's going over the top, everything's going underneath, gfs shocking, UKMO shocking, if ecm is shocking it's all over!! Good god its like a badly scratched jive bunny record on here at times

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Waiting for Snowmageddon reminds of when I used to play 1950s' 78s, on a portable gramophone:

Every day, it's a'gettin closer /snick / Every day, it's a'gettin closer /snick/ Every day, it's a'gettin closer /snick/...

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Some of the terms being used are very misleading ("flat", "no amplification" etc).  Nothing could be further from the truth...  

I agree but is is obvious that the amount of amplification has been scaled back somewhat.

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