Cold hunt - models and chat

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Southender-

Without wanting to pick holes I was a little puzzled by this date? Must be the borderline aspergers in me. Did you Mean January 87? Or was there another event I was too young to remember being in Nappies at that age, but I swear my parents said January was the month when my babysitter couldn't get to me from Gravesend to Dartford  (where I spent the first 27 years of my life) as the buses stopped running.

 

Lovely video btw! Great to see what life was like back then. I remember Feb 91 as I walked out into the garden and the snow came up to my chest

The date is wrong on that, it was Jan 1987.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Southender-

Without wanting to pick holes I was a little puzzled by this date? Must be the borderline aspergers in me. Did you Mean January 87? Or was there another event I was too young to remember being in Nappies at that age, but I swear my parents said January was the month when my babysitter couldn't get to me from Gravesend to Dartford  (where I spent the first 27 years of my life) as the buses stopped running.

 

Lovely video btw! Great to see what life was like back then. I remember Feb 91 as I walked out into the garden and the snow came up to my chest

It must be, as I was about to post the same thing! I think my ASD might be a bit less marginal than yours, though...So it's my excuse too!

[Kentspur]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It must be, as I was about to post the same thing! I think my ASD might be a bit less marginal than yours, though...So it's my excuse too!

Maybe it develops due to us being Spurs fans. Nothing marginal about that nor this particular snowfall! Looks like it was more than the foot of snow we had in late November 2010 the max I heard of was 1.5feet roughly out in the sticks near here but that looks crazy amounts! Like a proper North American style fall

Edited February 7, 2019 by Kentspur

[SilverWolf]

3 hours ago, TEITS said:

GFS Para suggesting snowfall on Sunday across Midlands/N Wales/ E Anglia.

Might cheer up Victor Meldrew i.e Shaky!

Being greedy, but can this shift south like last time...

[Derecho]

Good afternoon

Before the 12z's come out I thought I'd update on the situation which has changed a fair bit over the last 24 hours.

Gone are quite a lot of the awful SW'lies we have seen in output over recent days. Something mild or anticyclonic is still favourite for February 15th but a high is favoured over us or slightly to our east more then the south. The control is representative of the overall picture mid month in the ensembles.

 

Not to exciting it appears but it does lead the door to some interesting solutions a bit later on. We may have to wait a while but it could help the meteorological winter end quite nicely. A few runs on February 20th develop a Greenland high. P7 is particularly sweet but a highly uncertain picture as one would expect, this coming after a surprisingly strong anticylonic signal in recent days for this time range.

 

So towards the end of February is rather more up in the air at the moment. I don't expect any significant cold until Feb 15th but maybe later it could be possible.  Some mild weather at times as the temperature anomalies for T168 show. An extremely amplified pattern in the North Atlantic as well it appears and some warmth creeping up to Newfoundland. Again expect an Azores low to feature. Lets hope it can occur alongside a Greenland high, rather then Euro high and set us up for a prolonged cold spell (I wish)...

Edited February 7, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[Chris74]

52 minutes ago, Southender said:

The Thames at Southend did indeed freeze. I was but a nipper, but remember walking out on the Thames at high tide. We had a lot more than 30cm of snow as well. Here’s a video from my area at the time - 

 

Hi was this Jan 1987 love to see that again the Isle of Sheppey was the same as you can see

[Methuselah]

26 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Maybe it develops due to us being Spurs fans. 

Nah...that's SAD. And I have that, too!

[Don]

1 hour ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Looking decent, NAO still a bit uncertain though

I think the NAO is trending in the right direction though, with an increase in negative ensembles.

[#windysnow#]

8 minutes ago, Chris74 said:

Hi was this Jan 1987 love to see that again the Isle of Sheppey was the same as you can see

this pic and the vid from 1987 by Southender, is why im addicted to snow, as we had a similar event here, I was 13 but had to watch from my bedroom window, all my friends play in it as I had mumps!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Edited February 7, 2019 by #windysnow#
channge to text

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Long way off I no, but still the CFS shows our potential reward final 3rd of Feb, been showing this for some time now, so even though this model doesn't gain much recognition, perhaps its onto something!

[karyo]

The updated icon is boring up to 160 hours with not enough amplification. However the last few frames show potential for a retrogression of the euro high and a dropping AO.

[feb1991blizzard]

Icon starts off crap, as flat as a pancake but with a much better Greenland profile, and cuts out the Easterly altogether and just looks like it is going the retrogression route straight up, i love Easterlies but given the lack of cold pooling and the route being fraught with danger, i am not sure the risk to reward ratio is worth it, a much safer way would be straight to Greenland, because you have always got the topple to scandi option afterwards and there certainly would be a cold pool to our East by then.

[Chris74]

12 minutes ago, #windysnow# said:

this pic and the vid from 1987 by Southender, is why im addicted to snow, as we had a similar event here, I was 13 but had to watch from my bedroom window, all my friends play in it as I had mumps!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

This is the same reason I love the weather so much I would love for my younger family members to see this the picture of the cars buried in a road in Sheerness when we on the Isle of Sheppey was cut of for nearly a week Canadian forecaster Brett Anderson did say the main bulk cold would move away from there so hopefully that might benefit us. 

[shaky]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Icon starts off crap, as flat as a pancake but with a much better Greenland profile, and cuts out the Easterly altogether and just looks like it is going the retrogression route straight up, i love Easterlies but given the lack of cold pooling and the route being fraught with danger, i am not sure the risk to reward ratio is worth it, a much safer way would be straight to Greenland, because you have always got the topple to scandi option afterwards and there certainly would be a cold pool to our East by then.

Tell me.something new lol!!watch gfs go flat aswell!!

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Icon starts off crap, as flat as a pancake but with a much better Greenland profile, and cuts out the Easterly altogether and just looks like it is going the retrogression route straight up, i love Easterlies but given the lack of cold pooling and the route being fraught with danger, i am not sure the risk to reward ratio is worth it, a much safer way would be straight to Greenland, because you have always got the topple to scandi option afterwards and there certainly would be a cold pool to our East by then.

Given the strong and growing MJO phase 8 signal I think this is the most likely scenario.

[winterof79]

At first glance icon 180z looks a little uninspiring but I'd bet that we will see a disconnect between vortices before long as heights reach for Greenland with the Canadian lobe retreating and the Asian lobe ready to make it's move.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

Given the strong and growing MJO phase 8 signal I think this is the most likely scenario.

To do it in the way i have just described would take some backtrack from the models though. Icon starting to retrogress by D8.

[frosty ground]

The Icon and the last GFS run has lost its early amplification, it's scaled back so the high is failing to get far enougth north. 

[Yarmy]

Whatever the evolution, it's very different to the 0z at T168:

 

 

I prefer the 12z, tbh. Way better NH profile, with retrogression looking likely.

[Derecho]

8 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

The Icon and the last GFS run has lost its early amplification, it's scaled back so the high is failing to get far enougth north. 

As far as I can see the GFS is only out to T72?

Edit: Sorry I read this as latest and not last!

Edited February 7, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

The Icon and the last GFS run has lost its early amplification, it's scaled back so the high is failing to get far enougth north. 

Did you actually look at the Icon GIF above which shows retrogression beginning toward the end with a benign Atlantic profile

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

As far as I can see the GFS is only out to T72?

The last run would be 06z run, the current run as you say is not out yet

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Did you actually look at the Icon GIF above which shows retrogression beginning toward the end with a benign Atlantic profile

I did, and I stand by my comment that the early amplification is not as pronounced which is why the high initially set up at the same latitude as the UK and the cold 850's are way to the south in Europe.

What follow after will change for a while yet but yes sign of retrogression    

[booferking]

Let's see who can spin positives out of the image below

 

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Let's see who can spin positives out of the image below

 

It's not Atlantic driven wind and rain