Cold hunt - models and chat

[A.J]

Damn it!!!!.....I meant to post on the ICON!!!!......but the exclamation key on my keyboard is stuck!!!!!.....what can I do?!!!!!!!...has it north, south, east, or west?!!!!!!.....

 

Sorry, I'll fetch me coat!!!!!

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Very decent prospects indeed for later in the month.

Clearly the potential for an eventual west based -NAO but I would suggest we get the -NAO in place first, before we start fretting about that!

Stuff the NAO! Gimme me a 1987-esque BFTE, which occurred under a +ive NAO, I believe! 

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Stuff the NAO! Gimme me a 1987-esque BFTE, which occurred under a +ive NAO, I believe! 

No it didn't - it was negative

it wasn't as strongly negative as one might expect though, probably because the low was more East based.

Edited February 7, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[tight isobar]

Just spotted this little lot ready to leave..

@winters over

@mild crew

[JeffC]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No it didn't - it was negaitive.

so positively negative or negatively positive?

[feb1991blizzard]

It was feb 1991 that was a positive NAO, just positive, the difference between the 2 actually is that the undercutter taking place at the time on the Jan 87 was nearer to the azores at the time of the coldest weather than the 1991 one, thats all i can think of because heights were robust to our North on both.

[winterof79]

16 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Those better disappear, will be windy enough tonight. The next lot look down right dangerous down here.

Are we actually/finally going to hit the sweet spot are we going negative?

[alexisj9]

I still expect a greeny, will be interesting if we get there through scandi though, although that a rather long route.

[bluearmy]

That’s two gefs runs which show a greeny block as we enter the final week of feb .......almost a year to the day that we saw it doing the same thing ........

[Frosty.]

I would say it's looking good at least for the s / e to get increasing surface cold next week and beyond as high pressure builds to the east and extends it's influence into the uk..further n / w probably more changeable / unsettled in comparison but further s / e / se seeing increasing risk of frost and potentially freezing fog..basically it's the current ecm signal.

Edited February 7, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It was feb 1991 that was a positive NAO, just positive, the difference between the 2 actually is that the undercutter taking place at the time on the Jan 87 was nearer to the azores at the time of the coldest weather than the 1991 one, thats all i can think of because heights were robust to our North on both.

You're right of course, Feb...I've spent so much time on Netflix, watching The OA, I'm getting things backward!

[edinburgh_1992]

Looking decent, NAO still a bit uncertain though

Quote

 

Edited February 7, 2019 by edinburgh_1992

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Possibly gerrin a bit excited especially as 87 been mentioned, think it was a negative nao at the time, but can you imagine a re run occurring, lasting 13 days in January 87, possibly the most intense of the 20th century, - 23 being the lowest recorded temp in the East mids, think that may get shaky excited. Major heavy falls in the SE and E, something like 20-30 cm of snow in places. All coming about through high pressure over siberia moving into Scandinavia and dragging in frigid easterlies, this brought a bout by low pressure over Italy. I think even southend on sea froze over at some point, funny thing being it dissipated as quick as it formed!! But my god anything remotely close to that set up would bring this place down.

 

Edited February 7, 2019 by Mattwolves

[winterof79]

20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I would say it's looking good at least for the s / e to get increasing surface cold next week and beyond as high pressure builds to the east and extends it's influence into the uk..further n / w probably more changeable / unsettled in comparison but further s / e / se seeing increasing risk of frost and potentially freezing fog..basically it's the current ecm signal.

And the Mets

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

Well worth popping on to micheal ventrice site..for hes latest tweet!!!

No thanks!...the same Michael Ventrice who was showing temperature anomaly charts in fairly early January for mid-month onwards about the effects of the SSW in the States (particularly central and northern states) and yes showing very warm anomalies and mentioning 'toasty'?...the rest is history.

Edited February 7, 2019 by Froze were the Days

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

No thanks!...the same Michael Ventrice who was showing temperature anomaly charts in fairly early January for mid-month onwards about the effects of the SSW in the States (particularly central and northern states) and yes showing very warm anomalies and mentioning 'toasty'...the rest is history.

That was the nomination @that point.

And by now we know this winter will be earmarked-for its pure unpredictability, and headache forecasting!!!!

Via ssw..and miss figured downwelling!!

Edited February 7, 2019 by tight isobar

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

No thanks!...the same Michael Ventrice who was showing temperature anomaly charts in fairly early January for mid-month onwards about the effects of the SSW in the States (particularly central and northern states) and yes showing very warm anomalies and mentioning 'toasty'...the rest is history.

Interesting, I think he as good as quoted winter was over for the Eastern seaboard based on the gfs data, the yanks havING non of it though as they much prefer to see what the ECM is showing, let's face it this winter has got even the boffins stumped that's what makes it all the more interesting,

Edited February 7, 2019 by Mattwolves

[winterof79]

34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s two gefs runs which show a greeny block as we enter the final week of feb .......almost a year to the day that we saw it doing the same thing ........

Yes and for those who doubt the continent won't be cold enough come the time we drag in an Easterly feed.

Feb 13th last year 

Then Feb 28th with Asian PV lobe drained 

 

Edited February 7, 2019 by winterof79

[tight isobar]

10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Yes and for those who doubt the continent won't be cold enough cone the time we drag in an Easterly feed.

Feb 13th last year 

Then Feb 28th with Asian PV lobe drained 

 

Good point..

And just quickly its not what you see on the models @facevalue..

Its decipher of dynamics on how it will get to a point..

Then-calculate when fruition is reached..

Plus that way removes a lot of headaches.

Pv drain and spill..still look as good as ever a later this month..

And those writting a evaporative/diluted incursion..may wanna wait a wee while!!!!

Edited February 7, 2019 by tight isobar

[Southender]

18 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Possibly gerrin a bit excited especially as 87 been mentioned, think it was a negative nao at the time, but can you imagine a re run occurring, lasting 13 days in January 87, possibly the most intense of the 20th century, - 23 being the lowest recorded temp in the East mids, think that may get shaky excited. Major heavy falls in the SE and E, something like 20-30 cm of snow in places. All coming about through high pressure over siberia moving into Scandinavia and dragging in frigid easterlies, this brought a bout by low pressure over Italy. I think even southend on sea froze over at some point, funny thing being it dissipated as quick as it formed!! But my god anything remotely close to that set up would bring this place down.

 

The Thames at Southend did indeed freeze. I was but a nipper, but remember walking out on the Thames at high tide. We had a lot more than 30cm of snow as well. Here’s a video from my area at the time - 

 

[kold weather]

18 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

No thanks!...the same Michael Ventrice who was showing temperature anomaly charts in fairly early January for mid-month onwards about the effects of the SSW in the States (particularly central and northern states) and yes showing very warm anomalies and mentioning 'toasty'?...the rest is history.

In all fairness it WAS above average for Jan for a vast part of the USA, maybe not toasty but above average overall. As Ryan Maue said, 3 cold days do not a cold month make...

Anyway as BA said fairly decent agreement of an attempt at a -ve NAO towards the last week of Feb. It would be unusual even in a very +ve NAO for there not to be at least one decent -ve spell in there, which hasn't yet happened.

Edited February 7, 2019 by kold weather

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Southender said:

The Thames at Southend did indeed freeze. I was but a nipper, but remember walking out on the Thames at high tide. We had a lot more than 30cm of snow as well. Here’s a video from my area at the time - 

 

Fondly remembered

[summer blizzard]

I am certainly optimistic with regards to a pressure build to our north and east (Met should be commended) however i am far from sold on it not being a cloudy south easterly.

[Kentspur]

Southender-

Without wanting to pick holes I was a little puzzled by this date? Must be the borderline aspergers in me. Did you Mean January 87? Or was there another event I was too young to remember being in Nappies at that age, but I swear my parents said January was the month when my babysitter couldn't get to me from Gravesend to Dartford  (where I spent the first 27 years of my life) as the buses stopped running.

 

Lovely video btw! Great to see what life was like back then. I remember Feb 91 as I walked out into the garden and the snow came up to my chest

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Southender-

Without wanting to pick holes I was a little puzzled by this date? Must be the borderline aspergers in me. Did you Mean January 87? Or was there another event I was too young to remember being in Nappies at that age, but I swear my parents said January was the month when my babysitter couldn't get to me from Gravesend to Dartford  (where I spent the first 27 years of my life) as the buses stopped running.

 

Lovely video btw! Great to see what life was like back then. I remember Feb 91 as I walked out into the garden and the snow came up to my chest

The biggest part of the freeze was Jan 7th to Jan 20th, most intense temps so forth