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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

T168 ecm. Very nice. Big chances from there. Ukmo is not as good at t144 as ecm and the limited view of the t168 Ukmo is not going to show us the area of interest. Tonight’s output is going to be interesting to view.

E6BDF532-87AC-42ED-900A-4253D821E8AC.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Both GFS, GFS parallel and ECM showing Interesting developments in the medium/longer term. We will have to see how things go but definitely some thing to keep the interest towards the end of metrological winter.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
7 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

@bluearmy you said last night you’d expect some nice op runs appearing in the next 4 runs . Well the 18z was a stonker. 

Well I said we should be concerned if there weren’t any by yesterday evening 

7 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Maybe...What do you think? 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020612_264.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020612_312.

 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020612_360.

I think the model is thrashing about  a bit around a theme ......where will the high anomoly end up in two weeks...... starting to see the griceland region as a decent shout 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Lol. ECM will put a cat amongst the pigeons this morning. Looking pretty good so far... Ok, not snowmageddon but better than the euro high muck being forecast earlier this week.

 

Edited by Seasonality
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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
32 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Some stella tastic -AOs this morning-

F7064069-46BB-46E2-B896-F884780DF465.thumb.png.971b6395f0f8c06b6f19f6c29dee02e6.png

Indeed so Steve. Plenty to keep up the interest for coldies.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

What a turnaround this week, we gone from a one day Northerly topper to possibly an easterly, the Ukmo was the first to hint at this from  its t168 hour chart a few days ago  before dropping the idea  then all models seem to be agreeing on it, now let's hope it make the reliable time frame. For once! 

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
3 hours ago, Mizzle said:

I'll give it a go. Still learning how to read them and, albeit FI, I think we would like this to verify. (Or not?) 

gfsnh-0-384.png

Just to be clear, I meant that I am still learning, not @Ramp

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Posted
  • Location: Cleethorpes, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and crisp..
  • Location: Cleethorpes, Lincolnshire
2 hours ago, DCee said:

Just checking in. No cold in the models other than two frosts, possibly. Back in ten days.

Thanks for the input.,

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO extended looks to have the high a bit further south than ECM at t168

ukm2.2019021400_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.6026e7e1d51d59f62ff4ca5bfa8f8dd3.png

ECM

ecm2.2019021400_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.2c35c183ebfca9bfd5f1468664761080.png

The closest match to UKMO on the angle these charts provide is GEM

cmc2.2019021400_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.368d356dcf4ca5bde801d43044738a46.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Icon less amplified early on which then results in a slightly flatter pattern at 120 hours!!still dont think anything is going to come from this!!evrrything shall just flatten out closer to the time like it has all winter!!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Seriously though regardless of that phase 8 MJO BJO whatever you call it!! watch everything flatten out again as if by magic lol!!let the flatten start with the gfs 06z!!!!its a horrible tease from the models especially when the winter has been so boring!!i hope we see the scandi high happen but right now am saying no!!

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind, storms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Just now, shaky said:

Seriously though regardless of that phase 8 MJO BJO whatever you call it!! watch everything flatten out again as if by magic lol!!let the flatten start with the gfs 06z!!!!its a horrible tease from the models especially when the winter has been so boring!!i hope we see the scandi high happen but right now am saying no!!

Calm down dear, its only one run

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looking at the ECM ensemble members this morning confirmed what I suspected - if we end up in a flow east of south by D10, then the uppers can be binned to some extent in relation to surface temperatures. By 16th February, the op and control run both have midday temperatures between 0C and 4C at very best (slightly higher in far SW), and all other runs in a similar vein also struggle to get much of the country far above freezing.

As to the overall synoptic pattern, the runs producing a continental flow in the D7-D10 (ala ECM op) are slightly in the majority but it's not done and dusted, there will be a sizeable cluster than flatten the pattern earlier. But the frontrunner right now for mid month is the below average (albeit dry) option.

Further on, scatter increases, so blocks to the east are not necessary stable ones - However, a number of members are trying to undercut the High, like @bluearmypicked up on last night. There's a number of ways things could go, and the retrogression option is clearly there. Very few runs build a Feb 2018 style cold pool to the east though, so more "upgrades" will be needed for a true beasterly.

All in all, probably as good a position that coldies could have hoped for 48 hours ago.

Was thinking about people assuming that a late feb easterly will bring a BFTE .... last feb was exceptional- the ridge got way to our ne which enabled the Siberian cold pool to be advected a long way sw into nw Europe  ..... and beyond ....

Edited by bluearmy
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