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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ECM T192 decent holding position primed for upgrades if the overall pattern isn't nailed down yet, which I think given uncertainty it probably isn't!

image.thumb.jpg.a17be474b4826f1c2b71f954bc03b828.jpg

 

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted
8 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The high should try and move to Scandi, it's just a shame we have such a lack of cold to our east though.

so we have minus 12 uppers  on the other side of the Noth sea but that’s not cold enough for you,how cold do we have to get then

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

so we have minus 12 uppers  on the other side of the Noth sea but that’s not cold enough for you,how cold do we have to get then

Wrong....

1) -12C uppers are in very small patches over Eastern Europe (T192)

2) The uppers will get moderated over the North Sea.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted
1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Wrong....

1) -12C uppers are in very small patches over Eastern Europe (T192)

2) The uppers will get moderated over the North Sea.

cold enough for snow which is the main thing,and i doubt it will actually look like that regarding the uppers ,if it actually verifies of course

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Its so up and down in here its unreal. Get a grip people. Count to 10 and start again. The models are only just getting to grips with evolutions after the cold onslaught in the us(raging mild shown on gfs as all but gone) as I have said numerous times in the last week. I would trust ecm 100% more than the gfs or ukmo. Its verification stats are miles better. If the ecm shows and easterly trying to develope again tonight. I'm sure the others will follow shortly. PS ukmo could easily follow the 00z ecm after 144hrs we just can't see the charts. This winter is gonna end with something good. Biggest ecm of winter coming up I'm in my opinion. good look coldies.

Good call, ecm a big improvement on earlier model runs, don't no where you got ya crystal ball, but giz a lend!! Thrilling commentary on that ecm 12z run chaps, I was almost as excited as Kathy bates in misery when she was waiting for pual to finish the book, not as that turned out to well, not for him anyway, here's hoping for further upgrades, over to you gfs 18z

Edited by Mattwolves
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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted
1 minute ago, XtremeUKWeather said:

image.thumb.png.dfc9ce2fe5a08c7f15d50fe36678db71.pngcold enough for snow showers in east this

lets not get too greedy

Don't get me wrong it isn't too bad but the Scandi high could whip up some mild air quickly... reminds me of February 2017 and the easterly that occurred then. The wind is also of s SE'y with an anticyclonic curvature so snow showers may be limited in such a setup.

Anyhow a lot of water to pass under the bridge till then.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

NH view on ECM T240 showing just how big a block this is forecast on this run to be, totally locks out the Atlantic, whereas with the FV3 run previously it was encroaching. 

image.thumb.jpg.420a9c39e65aceb632331c0bc18edc4d.jpg

Need to see more runs like this, pendulum swings back towards latter half of February cold today, by some margin!

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

A nice flow to the ECM and looks a logical projection. GFS has the block too far away but at least it's sniffing around it. UKMO doesn't go far enough. Before arguing whether it will snow or not we need to get the idea of such blocking down to or close to the reliable time frame.

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Don't get me wrong it isn't too bad but the Scandi high could whip up some mild air quickly... reminds me of February 2017 and the easterly that occurred then. The wind is also of s SE'y with an anticyclonic curvature so snow showers may be limited in such a setup.

Anyhow a lot of water to pass under the bridge till then.

Lot to ask for milder air from that baby

ECH1-240.gif

Edited by winterof79
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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Am I on my own thinking the ecm was a decent run ?? To what we’ve been seeing lately it’s a marked improvement and plenty of time for it to improve further. 

ADC65CD1-C321-42F1-A8C2-27E1EFE5771E.png

77E31659-7095-4928-8A4B-84534B9E9AE7.png

93CC76E7-03E8-4367-A123-43F4BCF4FC02.png

CABD52B8-8BA4-4985-B15A-3874254B703E.png

74332423-95F3-4BA4-A66D-5DDC97ACE3AD.png

DCD3C805-C1E4-4DB2-868A-6D576CCB62DB.png

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

It’s all trends at this range but overall ECM trending cold  

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

How’s sat/Sunday’s storm looking? Hard to tell on EC raw data.

any insights?

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted
1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Lot to ask for SW winds from that baby

ECH1-240.gif

It does look blocked, I'd prefer to see the high ridge to Greenland first and load up the cold to our east and north. Otherwise a mild SE'ly can follow as seen with February 2017. It is far better then the GFS though and if we do get a UK high following the brief northerly t the weekend, it may take a better path.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

The only slight concern here is the lack of cold uppers to our east, especially as the uppers to our northwest look much colder! ECM0-72.thumb.GIF.f6ab6a8d2ee21e386dd3e3a95696432d.GIF

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The only slight concern here is the lack of cold uppers to our east, especially as the uppers to our northwest look much colder! ECM0-72.thumb.GIF.f6ab6a8d2ee21e386dd3e3a95696432d.GIF

Which is for Saturday.

You could extrapolate to a few days later

ECH0-168.gif

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

3 charts for different models at T192, JMA, FV3 and ECM:

image.thumb.jpg.95220b2c3d82ee922dbb2dbe1bebdf06.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.4ea0ccbeb3bcca7bb343e3d7baab0ed4.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.3a5f84410de3ea52a039c276328dbc2a.jpg

Massive warm air advection to our west, some 3000 miles from SW to NE if you follow the contours,  on all charts, but to really benefit in terms of UK cold, we need it to be far enough west, ECM is best, but could be improved, look for upgrades!!

Edited by Mike Poole
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The only slight concern here is the lack of cold uppers to our east, especially as the uppers to our northwest look much colder! ECM0-72.thumb.GIF.f6ab6a8d2ee21e386dd3e3a95696432d.GIF

Dohhhh, that's more like it

ECM0-240.gif

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted

I for one am not getting sucked into another easterly fiasco just yet, if it makes it into 48 hours then maybe we might actually achieve it and if we do then would be the time to start looking at uppers etc. It would be nice to actually get there this time round but the way the winter has gone I’d be surprised but that would definitely be a nice surprise 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Which is for Saturday.

You could extrapolate to a few days later

ECH0-168.gif

Yeh your right, I re posted to show the colder uppers getting closer

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