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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
6 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

....Thats nearly Easter :oldmellow:

Or the 22nd of Feb maybe.?

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

The scatter from the 12th has increased markedly on the GFS 12z ens compared to the 6z set!

6z

27B61AC9-717E-4EB3-8418-C92BBAD9485A.thumb.png.cf670a2ee3dba391329ce6af9f3f873c.png

 

12z

62BAB9B4-A114-41A3-81DB-A55B0585E5AD.thumb.png.8fc8c1bacf588993cc09dd9fc61e925a.png

 

Still the mean goes mild, but confidence is low, and lots of options, including colder are on the table.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
16 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs parallel much more amplified at 120 hours aswell!hoepfully ecm can continue the trend!!

Yep, having a right go at t174. No means perfect but would like to see this become a trend.

D697B02A-CBA1-48D3-B844-A83B4E005115.png

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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted

Its so up and down in here its unreal. Get a grip people. Count to 10 and start again. The models are only just getting to grips with evolutions after the cold onslaught in the us(raging mild shown on gfs as all but gone) as I have said numerous times in the last week. I would trust ecm 100% more than the gfs or ukmo. Its verification stats are miles better. If the ecm shows and easterly trying to develope again tonight. I'm sure the others will follow shortly. PS ukmo could easily follow the 00z ecm after 144hrs we just can't see the charts. This winter is gonna end with something good. Biggest ecm of winter coming up I'm in my opinion. good look coldies.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

FV3 showing an interesting evolution, here T144:

image.thumb.jpg.da6d3cf38d3cdccb2cea65676f0e14f2.jpg

Moving on to T186 there is massive WAA just to the west of UK which leads to a big ridge, placement at this point not ideal for UK, yes undoubtedly, but it's a sign of something coming close in the semi-reliable.  

image.thumb.jpg.71897d6ed9a1458b7e5ddb340fac286f.jpg

Time to watch on ECM is therefore T144 or just after.

Edited by Mike Poole
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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

FV3   

06z v 12z

 

gfsnh-1-198.png

gfsnh-1-192.png

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Purga said:

Bit of snow from GFS P for the SE on Sunday evening maybe?

image.thumb.png.5e5528ad5e5a8c15ec1e4180e9cde69f.pngimage.thumb.png.49bec4b06c9481344347322f62ef6420.png

Every little helps and that would be making the best of a poor winter!

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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted
4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

FV3   

06z v 12z

 

gfsnh-1-198.png

gfsnh-1-192.png

Changes are doing.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
19 minutes ago, Don said:

Every little helps and that would be making the best of a poor winter!

how can you say that? south of M4 was prime spot for the slider last Fri? what about living here, just the odd dusting since last years mini beast

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Gowon Veteran

Gowon

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted

Ecm not backing down and we're back under cold 850s as soon as Monday

 

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

how can you say that? south of M4 was prime spot for the slider last Fri? what about living here, just the odd dusting since last years mini beast

What about all the years when south of the M4 has had nowt?!  I was lucky last week, that’s for sure but if Feb is to be mild, the winter will have been poor overall, so need to make the most of any snow and that goes for everyone.  It really is getting too tetchy in here lately!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

And we have lift off on the new chase at T144 on ECM, much cleaner WAA north leads to a substantial block now at only 6 days away:

image.thumb.jpg.ecc278de37aec375151947e5431b08ae.jpg

Better than FV3 at same time...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Stonethecrows Enthusiast

Stonethecrows

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

With the way this winter has gone mate it’s hard to see a good outcome, we’ve had much better potential than this all winter so far and achieved pretty much nothing in terms of a proper cold spell, not writing anything off I think March could be the month again if we get anything, but based on current output I can’t see a viable way of us getting a prolonged cold spell any time soon.

Pivoting, unrelenting azores heights and a strong polar vortex in a terrible position have been prominent all winter and show no sign of packing up.

Well when the output was stonking we got diddly so maybe we need things to look bleak in order to show us the money.

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted
10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A very good start to the ECM

0B2F073F-35A8-41F5-B1D9-5981629A3DD7.thumb.png.73eb2a2936883be7c5107a037a6b0961.png

The high should try and move to Scandi, it's just a shame we have such a lack of cold to our east though.

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icykev Aficionado

icykev

Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
Posted
1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The high should try and move to Scandi, it's just a shame we have such a lack of cold to our east though.

Pv looks like it's breaking up though

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The high should try and move to Scandi, it's just a shame we have such a lack of cold to our east though.

It's not February 2018 cold but it's cold enough, some decent consistently from the ECM at least 

Screenshot_20190206-183845.png

Edited by seabreeze86
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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
3 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

It's not February 2018 cold but it's cold enough, some decent consistently from the ECM at least 

Screenshot_20190206-183845.png

Another run from the cold cluster of the ECM coming up. 

One senses the whole thing is moving in this direction but tonight's op looks like it will be at the extreme of options we've seen over the past 48 hours

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, XtremeUKWeather said:

 did anyone SAy sw'ly 

image.png

It’s not

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted
3 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

It's not February 2018 cold but it's cold enough, some decent consistently from the ECM at least 

Screenshot_20190206-183845.png

It's an improvement, hopefully a cold pool can still develop in situ to our east if we do get the Scandi high...

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