Cold hunt - models and chat

[frosty ground]

A bit more amplification from the 12z ICON, plus a less intense Atlantic 

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Agree somewhat..

And i find myself saying AGAIN- given the above state..and microscale dynamics..a southerly routs is all but impossible to avoid...lol..

Some drama on here AWAITS!!!

Word of warning though, if the Icon / ECM more rounded feature verifies, there will be a heck of a lot falling as rain, even when its tracked over me, the bbc has only ever had the sleet symbol not the snow symbol.

Edited February 6, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[kold weather]

Man that low is severe on 12z icon. Really do need that tracking into the channel. I know it reduces snow opportunity but you really don't want yo be on the south side of the low...you'd basically be looking at a one in 10-20 year wind event in that setup. 

 

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Word of warning though, if the Icon / ECM more rounded feature verifies, there will be a heck of a lot falling ass rain, even when its tracked over me, the bbc has only ever had the sleet symbol not the snow symbol.

No word of warning needed pal..

No1 has said what will happen..(exactly).

Thats just a basic miss -interp that is a common feature(no pun intended) on here..

A syphon of lower uppers is already my favour mixing and diggin in..

And the south/south central belt..are again in the equation..

But as again..lets study the gradients.

 

As we gain

.

Edited February 6, 2019 by tight isobar

[Selliso]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

No word of warning needed pal..

No1 has said what will happen..(exactly).

Thats just a basic miss -interp that is a common feature(no pun intended) on here..

A syphon of lower uppers is already my favour mixing and diggin in..

And the south/south central belt..are again in the equasion..

But as again..lets study the gradients.

May the gradients be ever in your favour.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, kold weather said:

Man that low is severe on 12z icon. Really do need that tracking into the channel. I know it reduces snow opportunity but you really don't want yo be on the south side of the low...you'd basically be looking at a one in 10-20 year wind event in that setup. 

 

How's about a 10-20 year snow event kold, this could end up a similar event to last Thursday but with much more wind, bets are on for the exact track of this feature

[frosty ground]

Not sure the high get as far north as some would like, but it is dragging in continental air by the end

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Not sure the high get as far north as some would like, but it is dragging in continental air by the end

Nice bit of late season cold for the Balkans and the Greeks though.

[SNMartyn]

36 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

Actually I hope you are correct on the next cold spell and like most in here, i certainly think your method of input to the thread is both unusual and entertaining. It is because if your regular entertaining input that i have noticed that quite often your predictions of cold spells are incorrect, (just like the models have been all winter).  

So, my previous question was quite genuine when I asked how you are sure of the next cold spell? 

Anyway, keep up the entertaining posts!

Another member for the ignore list.

[Swave Snow]

3 hours ago, jethro said:

I've had my snow fix for the year, more than happy for spring to come and if it has to be cold and snowy, you lot up north can keep it.

We almost had our snow fix in North West London but in the end our flunk fuelled your fix. So if you don't want it lol send it north and to the south east preferably to all of London and Greater London not just the tiny South east corner 

[kold weather]

Cornwall gets 100mph+ gusts at 87hrs on this run, south coast similar. Track of the low just stays far enough south to keep the most severe winds in the channel. SE still gets widespread 70mph+ even in that case.

Snow similar places as last event but not as much due to it being fairly quick moving and really only the back part of the system.

However snow a total side event compared to the wind event potential on this run. (A touch further north and it's basically a 87 reduex). 

Edited February 6, 2019 by kold weather

[tight isobar]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Nice bit of late season cold for the Balkans and the Greeks though.

look 4 the push back..On upcoming outs...

Edited February 6, 2019 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[A.J]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

There's got to be a better-than-average chance, that winter 2018-19 will be remembered as the Winter of Unrealised Potential...?

it's been said before that winter starts on the first snowfall and ends on the last snowfall....for me, winter was from 31st Jan to the 1st Feb....but what a stonking winter it was!.....An absolute belter! 

[A.J]

1 hour ago, kold weather said:

Only runs to 90hrs, but looks like it's moving into the SW and moving ENE. Probably south of 00z.

but by how many miles!!!.....5!!!, 10!!! or 50!!!....Shaky needs to know!!!!!

[winterof79]

UKMO at 96z cold wish we could split that PV

 

[bluearmy]

Just now, winterof79 said:

UKMO at 96z cold wish we could split that PV

 

Looks like it didn’t have the storm sat/sun 

[Geordiesnow]

Well a good spell of windy weather coming up, potentially severe and disuptive for some, starting tomorrow morning which sort of came up unexpected in the short term with a quick blast of potentially severe gales for Eastern England, this does not last long at all though but with the timing of when the strongest gusts arrive, there could be some disruption from this. 

Then the most widespread event happening Friday and into Saturday with a very deep low hitting the UK, still in a development stage so the exact positioning of the strongest gusts is still not clear cut but it should start on Friday afternoon with Ireland, Northern Ireland, and western coasts getting hit by severe gales and then the strongest  winds slowly transfer towards Southern Scotland and Northern England with some very gusty winds for SE Scotland and NE England(with the affect of being on the 'lee' of the Pennines which can increase wind gusts substancially) overnight into Saturday morning before very slowly easing although still gusty during Saturday. Bound to be power cuts and falling trees from this low pressure system and no doubt the Met Office will have it named by tomorrow morning(or they certainly should anyway!).

Sunday's low is a lot more uncertain and its one of those that could end up being quite a shallow feature but the models at the moment are indicating quite a strong storm but too far out to place to much analysis on it. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Looks like it didn’t have the storm sat/sun 

Wonder if Exeter will modify it?

[bluearmy]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Wonder if Exeter will modify it?

Would love to see a day 5 wtf ukmo chart! 

I did like winter 2013 .....

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Looks like it didn’t have the storm sat/sun 

GFS taking it south, just an open wave

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, kold weather said:

06z ECM still has a deep low coming towards the south at 90hrs, probably snow for Midlands.

That is not the main story. Winds on south side of low is 65kts sustained. Winds at 850hpa often give a clue to wind gusts, and those are at 100kts. Wind gusts probably 100-105mph at surface. Severe wind storm rather than snow would likely be the case.

Needs to move south so we can avoid that wind.

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

GFS taking it south, just an open wave

Weak 994mbs closed low on the high res version. Totally different from 12z icon and 06z ECM.

GFS seems more realistic in terms of intensity but we will see.

[frosty ground]

More amplified GFS

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

More amplified GFS

Shame about ukmo absolutely horrendous!!!hopefully ecm follows gfs and arpege!!arpege looks wonderfull at the same time frame!!

[Weathizard]

UKMO - 0.5/10

GFS - 2/10

ICON - 4/10

GEM - 0/10