Cold hunt - models and chat

[winterof79]

Icon on the runner this Sunday.

May be a bit more action for north Midlands into southern Northern England....than last week

FV3 ok too

 

Edited February 6, 2019 by winterof79

[That ECM]

43 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Am i on another planet???.

 

I reckon. I sometimes think I wish I was from the same one

[Frosty.]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has returned after no 12z update looks to be a reasonably mild flow with some rain in the west

If the Background Signals again look great next winter, I'm going to ignore them!            Being serious though, I get the impression that the increasingly blocked Ecm signal is on the right track and high pressure / strong ridging should bring increasing surface cold to most of the uk away from the NW during next week onwards. 

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I reckon. I sometimes think I wish I was from the same one

It is sometimes a bit like being lost in space, innit?...Danger, Will Robinson! Danger, Will Robinson!

[BlackburnChris]

I hope Winter starts in November next Winter to make up for this Winter

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looking mild for the foreseeable. Won’t be long before I start looking for Storm loaded charts, as time really is beginning to wane now. Can already feel the ever strengthening sun taking effect on this mild day. 

My money will be on it typically turning wintry just as we want spring to flourish! You can just guarantee that will happen! 

[kold weather]

06z ECM still has a deep low coming towards the south at 90hrs, probably snow for Midlands.

That is not the main story. Winds on south side of low is 65kts sustained. Winds at 850hpa often give a clue to wind gusts, and those are at 100kts. Wind gusts probably 100-105mph at surface. Severe wind storm rather than snow would likely be the case.

Edited February 6, 2019 by kold weather

[Disco_Stu]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

Again some clever wording from the met.

If you look a little deeper at there transcript...its open for a flip to cold @anytime in the nxt 7 day..onwards...clearly they are of a little confused themselves as atm we all are.

Imo a cold late feb is still highly favoured.

Lets watch-it all unfold!

Although you have been 'over optimistic' with quite a lot of your 'upcoming cold spell' predictions all winter. So what makes you so confident that your interpretations of the next cold spell is correct?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Cfs is consistent with this. COld pool out east, perhaps this is the model that takes up residence at express headquarters!! Who knows but its like squirrel with a nut, it just won't give it up

Edited February 6, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Steve C]

9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

06z ECM still has a deep low coming towards the south at 90hrs, probably snow for Midlands.

That is not the main story. Winds on south side of low is 65kts sustained. Winds at 850hpa often give a clue to wind gusts, and those are at 100kts. Wind gusts probably 100-105mph at surface. Severe wind storm rather than snow would likely be the case.

Agree. This is one to really watch for the strength of the wind. I guess we'll know a bit more about the potential this evening.

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Cfs is consistent with this. COld pool out east, perhaps this is the model that takes up residence at express headquarters!! Who knows but its like squirrel with a nut, it just won't give it up

Thinking back, it was when cfs came on board that the whole thing fell away! its the euro trough (or lack of it) that's the issue. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

12 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

Although you have been 'over optimistic' with quite a lot of your 'upcoming cold spell' predictions all winter. So what makes you so confident that your interpretations of the next cold spell is correct?

I would say he is probably as correct as the ones on here pointing to an early spring 

[shaky]

23 minutes ago, kold weather said:

06z ECM still has a deep low coming towards the south at 90hrs, probably snow for Midlands.

That is not the main story. Winds on south side of low is 65kts sustained. Winds at 850hpa often give a clue to wind gusts, and those are at 100kts. Wind gusts probably 100-105mph at surface. Severe wind storm rather than snow would likely be the case.

Does the low still track across the midlands as the 00z run did or slightly further south?

[That ECM]

36 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

Although you have been 'over optimistic' with quite a lot of your 'upcoming cold spell' predictions all winter. So what makes you so confident that your interpretations of the next cold spell is correct?

“clearly they are of a little confused themselves as atm we all are.” doesn’t sound “overly optimistic”  

To be fair, you sound like your having a go at him for hunting for cold in the hunting for cold thread. 

 

Edited February 6, 2019 by That ECM

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Does the low still track across the midlands as the 00z run did or slightly further south?

Only runs to 90hrs, but looks like it's moving into the SW and moving ENE. Probably south of 00z.

[snowangel32]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Does the low still track across the midlands as the 00z run did or slightly further south?

Oh no by the time it comes it will end up in Cornwall. Who would have thought Cornwall the Snow Capital of the UK lol. Those greedy Southerners lol. Nah this one will be very marginal I think.

[shaky]

9 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Oh no by the time it comes it will end up in Cornwall. Who would have thought Cornwall the Snow Capital of the UK lol. Those greedy Southerners lol. Nah this one will be very marginal I think.

Yup and will probably go so far south swindon shall get another pummeling of snow!!

[shaky]

17 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Only runs to 90hrs, but looks like it's moving into the SW and moving ENE. Probably south of 00z.

Yeh probably end up so far south for us in the mids or will downgrade and wont be as potent!

[snowangel32]

Just now, shaky said:

Yup and will probably go so far south swindon shall get another pummeling of snow!!

The uppers seem alot more marginal this time and no deep cold in situ. But will probably be diffrent on the next run. But yh its a cert come Sunday that low will be in the channel

[tight isobar]

1 hour ago, Disco_Stu said:

Although you have been 'over optimistic' with quite a lot of your 'upcoming cold spell' predictions all winter. So what makes you so confident that your interpretations of the next cold spell is correct?

Easy answer 2 your question.

Study-experience-decipher!

As i said previously 2 another member on the last snow event......

That came to fruition.

And perhaps even more notable than deciphered.

Im not here 2 score points and get back patted...just to wack my analysis/points/exactions noted!!!

[Disco_Stu]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Easy answer 2 your question.

Study-experience-decipher!

As i said previously 2 another member on the last snow event......

That came to fruition.

And perhaps even more notable than deciphered.

Im not here 2 score points and get back patted...just to wack my analysis/points/exactions noted!!!

Actually I hope you are correct on the next cold spell and like most in here, i certainly think your method of input to the thread is both unusual and entertaining. It is because if your regular entertaining input that i have noticed that quite often your predictions of cold spells are incorrect, (just like the models have been all winter).  

So, my previous question was quite genuine when I asked how you are sure of the next cold spell? 

Anyway, keep up the entertaining posts!

[tight isobar]

1 hour ago, Disco_Stu said:

Although you have been 'over optimistic' with quite a lot of your 'upcoming cold spell' predictions all winter. So what makes you so confident that your interpretations of the next cold spell is correct?

We'll have a little go @ tracking and grade of the weekend feature 2 start.

And your more than welcome to save-shot, my analysis as we near...

Then flag bk up mon-the out.

Then also feel free to note my ever longer term analysis...

And opt-2 shout up that also..

Regards....

Edited February 6, 2019 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

15 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

Actually I hope you are correct on the next cold spell and like most in here, i certainly think your method of input to the thread is both unusual and entertaining. It is because if your regular entertaining input that i have noticed that quite often your predictions of cold spells are incorrect, (just like the models have been all winter).  

So, my previous question was quite genuine when I asked how you are sure of the next cold spell? 

Anyway, keep up the entertaining posts!

Last 1 on this..

You'll also notice across the board most-if not all have been incorrect on a seasonal scale..

Via ssw and structual downwelling..

I have my own thoughts in this..@strat expansion- miss forming tropospheric resoponces @coupling..

But i'll save that for the very end of winter....

That has a long way 2 run yet !!!!

Edited February 6, 2019 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

Weekend feature - my prediction (although very different in orientation so not exact replica) is that the Northern extent of any PPN will be around the same as the last event. Icon already tricking further South than on previous run.

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Weekend feature - my prediction (although very different in orientation so not exact replica) is that the Northern extent of any PPN will be around the same as the last event. Icon already tricking further South than on previous run.

Agree somewhat..

And i find myself saying AGAIN- given the above state..and microscale dynamics..a southerly routs is all but impossible to avoid...lol..

Some drama on here AWAITS!!!

Edited February 6, 2019 by tight isobar