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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Looking at the london graph its trending up again at the end, hardly any GEFS members go below -10c now and no sooner had i been laughed at for my comment, SS posted the BBC monthly  and guess what, no signs of cold and computers suggest mild until March 5th.

Yes - I believe that the beeb aren’t looking at any chance of deep cold before the back end of feb 

Lets see if we can get a scandi upper ridge  to establish by day 9 and then watch the ens showing a raft of deeply cold members  - just as they will show a bigger raft of non deeply cold ones )  

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Yes - I believe that the beeb aren’t looking at any chance of deep cold before the back end of feb 

Lets see if we can get a scandi upper ridge  to establish by day 9 and then watch the ens showing a raft of deeply cold members  - just as they will show a bigger raft of non deeply cold ones )  

16-30 the same but it doesn't make sense now because they have changed the end of the 6-15 to unsettled now!!

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looking at the london graph its trending up again at the end, hardly any GEFS members go below -10c now and no sooner had i been laughed at for my comment, SS posted the BBC monthly  and guess what, no signs of cold and computers suggest mild until March 5th.

Ensemble suites can flip too.  Plenty of winter left to be hopeful.  No promises but I am mildly optimistic.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, mulzy said:

Ensemble suites can flip too.  Plenty of winter left to be hopeful.  No promises but I am mildly optimistic.

They need to make a real play for cold starting this evening.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looking at the london graph its trending up again at the end, hardly any GEFS members go below -10c now and no sooner had i been laughed at for my comment, SS posted the BBC monthly  and guess what, no signs of cold and computers suggest mild until March 5th.

I certainly wasn't one laughing, but I would put much more faith in the guys who post on here than any of there predictions Feb. 

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
42 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Is next winter E-QBO or are transitioning from west to east during the winter?

  if I am correct then I believe next winter will be a transition to EQBO but don’t forget the lag effect as it switches from west to east 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They need to make a real play for cold starting this evening.

I am still hoping for another SSW to show up, our only hope now realistically and pray things fall into line for a potent cold spell in late March.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

So the upcoming anticyclone could produce anything from a southwesterly blowtorch to a dank, cold, foggy and frosty grot-fest? I'd take the blowtorch, if I had any choice...But that's because I'm SAD!

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Hmmm..what's this then?..looks cold to me!!!

06_120_ukthickness850.png

Let’s be honest though F it’s not proper cold or proper blocking though is it, in a winter that has promised so much but delivered so little, a transient snow event for a few isn’t really going to quench many people’s thirst for a proper cold spell.

 

We had about 12 hours of lying snow down here in the south and nice as it was, it’s not really what I wanted, I accept it may be different for some but what I desire is a proper cold spell, which right now looks extremely unlikely in the next 10-15 days.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
31 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm still waiting for the Pro's to confirm this. I personally don't see how a wQBO alone could have been the impact, after all, we've had SSW during wQBOs that have delivered.

The MJO is forecast (usual caveats) to move into a decent amplitude phase 8 shortly. Phase 8 in February is supposed to be the best phase for proper Greenland blocking. We will know soon enough whether this signal is being overridden by 'something else' soon.

image.thumb.png.410e1fa62260f9373a69e802405a24cc.png

I don't like how wobbly it looks and even hits the circle of death before going up again. 

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
1 minute ago, karyo said:

I don't like how wobbly it looks and even hits the circle of death before going up again. 

I think you have a poetic gift that sums

up this winter to a tee.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, tight isobar said:

Am i on another planet???.

The met...the models...ourselves..

Remain open to almost anything running to the end of feb..

And the met sitting firmly on the fence..and are clever in there wording in that regard- ie cold/mild.

Everything from a notable spell..to reasonably mild...

It all depends on skill and interp now...

Some that i have read regarding all above...would have us all sunbathing with a shrimp on the barbie....DEFINATLY NOT THE CASE!!!!

Agree no severely warm weather but no severe cold either, fluctuating around average and from wet to dry and back - nothing exceptional right out to early March.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Agree no severely warm weather but no severe cold either, fluctuating around average and from wet to dry and back - nothing exceptional right out to early March.

Again some clever wording from the met.

If you look a little deeper at there transcript...its open for a flip to cold @anytime in the nxt 7 day..onwards...clearly they are of a little confused themselves as atm we all are.

Imo a cold late feb is still highly favoured.

Lets watch-it all unfold!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
43 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Meanwhile the ext ens are not great on both suites, cannot see any signs of an Easterly.

Expect another 16-30 downgrade.

I've had my snow fix for the year, more than happy for spring to come and if it has to be cold and snowy, you lot up north can keep it.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
36 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm still waiting for the Pro's to confirm this. I personally don't see how a wQBO alone could have been the impact, after all, we've had SSW during wQBOs that have delivered.

The MJO is forecast (usual caveats) to move into a decent amplitude phase 8 shortly. Phase 8 in February is supposed to be the best phase for proper Greenland blocking. We will know soon enough whether this signal is being overridden by 'something else' soon.

image.thumb.png.410e1fa62260f9373a69e802405a24cc.png

I don't think we can be certain it is moving into a decent phase 8 amplitude, just look at the uncertainty of that graph!

Anyhow the swingometers are updated for the 06z, ensemble data for the 00z was missing again... but looking at the latest set I'm glad it is.

The picture in the mid-long term shows a strong level of agreement on a mild anticyclonic pattern yet again. The swingometers for February 15th show a clear mild picture emerging as many of the ensembles show a high just to the south of the UK. Mild air from the sub-tropics heading towards the UK is a feature on many. Believe it or not P19 is one of the best I could find... I needn't say more...

image.thumb.png.09ee9fbd52d6d179ce1d354c82b542d2.pngimage.thumb.png.b88d587609a18d7bb295e85ba9732d38.png  

For February 20th there appears to be a fairly strong anticyclonic/mild picture emerging. Many of the anticyclonic runs have mild air wrapping around the high so there is little in the way of cold at all. P5 has a beast knocking on the doorstep but that is it really.

image.thumb.png.b3ad6fad196548971b2ae23752ff47a7.pngimage.thumb.png.c9ea712c1c9588efaaa5bba51ab6d203.png 

So another low of weather morning output as far as the GFS is concerned. ECM is better but barely has a cold pool to tap into from our east... such is the mild weather there over the next few days. The global temperature anomaly plots show how the cold air pouring out from NE Canada is helping draw up some very mild Atlantic air. Good to see the coast of Africa with above average SSTs, which increases the likelihood of low pressure around the Azores. This can work against us though if we have a big high over Europe...

image.thumb.png.4fc30cd1768c4accd0d41ae0d28451d1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

As the song goes, what's that coming over the hill is it a cold blob or a mild damp squib, my god here we go again, it's the 6th of Feb and the coroners reports are already  coming out on winter!! Met say one thing,  beeb say another, in truth we are no closer to the truth than we were 2 months ago. I will say one thing though, it's the longest period of blocking and Easterly winds never to happened I've come across. Perhaps it's better we take a little step back and see how things devolop this month before we consign it to the garbage bins. As for talking up next winters chances, I would say just a little premature, being as we are struggling at 5 days out, perhaps we leave that little luxery to the daily express

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

There's got to be a better-than-average chance, that winter 2018-19 will be remembered as the Winter of Unrealised Potential...?

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
3 hours ago, That ECM said:

And we’re off. Left a bit, right a bit, up a bit,down a bit,  fire.  for the older members

Annie Aston

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
17 minutes ago, jethro said:

I've had my snow fix for the year, more than happy for spring to come and if it has to be cold and snowy, you lot up north can keep it.

Stop bragging lol.

Edited by joggs
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Annie Aston

Bernie the bolt...?

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

We should get to this point with in the next 3 winters sorry that’s the best I can offer today . B3E489E4-E7C7-4856-892B-53F1E423A578.thumb.png.77e7a570d24369564f649cfb3c0ba7b6.png084D8B54-B0CA-468B-869E-44CD57448C3B.thumb.png.b93d728e3c1df6a0eba6d118d5fe4f7b.png

On a more serious note the ECM is really not that far away from a proper Easterly. Let’s see where the ECM goes tonight . FAD21BC5-14C7-49C9-915B-D05D37422437.thumb.png.b3199bbcf1f803eeef8ba9822f95feaf.pngC1D4CAE1-3453-4A80-ABCD-EB60FDC08B01.thumb.png.c4c278f1937d75257b7cd94b4a13698c.png

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