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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Are you sure John? I’m pretty sure it’s @Summer Sun . There’s only one way to find out @summer sun are you Gavin P ?? 

Please comfirm

Not me Gavin p is a member on here 

Anyway. Back on topic...

Edited by Summer Sun
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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
26 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well if the GFS is on the money, that's a concerning storm for Friday, especially for those further north.... 960mb!

image.thumb.png.4afd80014bc727d9db6971012a5a0340.png

Certainly pretty windy and most of the uk . 

55CEA169-F793-463C-99AD-AAB7056F17EB.png

89CB6B1A-9564-41D2-B33E-59F5844D5D8F.png

1AF75BAB-50CA-4EB2-A430-6309DBB9EB25.png

3BECF937-AA49-423C-A2AA-5D68745D29F6.png

1C5F5AFE-CA2D-49D0-B2BC-7B49B711EE14.png

9F27E856-CE4F-4230-831F-ED3B5FF6F5FB.png

0F1A167D-FCB9-47EE-8698-81AF961EE6DF.png

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Norrance Maestro

Norrance

Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
Posted
6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Not me Gavin p is a member on here 

Anyway. Back on topic...

Ok. SS has confirmed that he is not Gavin P. Let’s leave it at that please.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Not me Gavin p is a member on here 

Anyway. Back on topic...

Never knew Gavin Partridge was on here? dosen't post though does he, heard of him though on other weather websites

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StretfordEnd1996 Community Regular

StretfordEnd1996

Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
Posted

Happy Valentines Day. Here's a stinky smelly looking GFS+210 for my missus. Ughh.. less of these charts are needed!
image.thumb.png.fe36c30b8d25f5e4ac321a2ae44e1b06.png

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
Just now, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Happy Valentines Day. Here's a stinky smelly looking GFS+210 for my missus. Ughh.. less of these charts are needed!
image.thumb.png.fe36c30b8d25f5e4ac321a2ae44e1b06.png

Aye, be a bit hot for folks

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Happy Valentines Day. Here's a stinky smelly looking GFS+210 for my missus. Ughh.. less of these charts are needed!
image.thumb.png.fe36c30b8d25f5e4ac321a2ae44e1b06.png

Look like we're time travelling back 21 years next week.......

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Happy Valentines Day. Here's a stinky smelly looking GFS+210 for my missus. Ughh.. less of these charts are needed!
image.thumb.png.fe36c30b8d25f5e4ac321a2ae44e1b06.png

The horribly famous Big piece of pizza slice wedge. One for the bins...... Next

Edited by Mattwolves
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps remain binary as per Exeter’s musings ......

By binary, do you mean one thing or a completely different thing?, clusters say 43% chance of a stonking Easterly.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

By binary, do you mean one thing or a completely different thing?, clusters say 43% chance of a stonking Easterly.

Well the pub run was toying with the possibility at day 10 (although it doesn't make it on this run), similar type evolution to what the ECM was showing earlier!?  

image.thumb.png.86cdc1122e9d50c317142982ab146cbb.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, Ice Day said:

Well the pub run was toying with the possibility at day 10 (although it doesn't make it on this run), similar type evolution to what the ECM was showing earlier!?  

image.thumb.png.86cdc1122e9d50c317142982ab146cbb.png

I liked the (think it was 0z GEFS) there was a really big cliff falling element at the end, really think 168-240 is too soon so would always be sceptical, i would rather see loads of ens members showing cold at 300+ now, it sounds daft but thats when there is uncertainty so you want to try and fit the Easterly in around uncertainty (as they  always are uncertain at range), chances are now if we see a brutal Easterly at 192, that it will just be an outlier anyway.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
8 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well the pub run was toying with the possibility at day 10 (although it doesn't make it on this run), similar type evolution to what the ECM was showing earlier!?  

image.thumb.png.86cdc1122e9d50c317142982ab146cbb.png

Looked an absolute belter synoptically at 384 but without those really frigid uppers like last year.

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edinburgh_1992 Community Regular

edinburgh_1992

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
Posted

Next week is looking increasingly wet in GFS 18. Was supposed to be dry up here between Monday and Wednesday, but now it looks like it will be raining (yet again). 

Been raining all afternoon and evening here, temperature has shot up to 10C. And that's in Scotland, not Cornwall. 

What happened to the cold that everyone was so certain of for the end of winter? It got postponed, then postponed again, and there are no signs of any change coming soon.

 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensembles continue to be very certain about the uncertainty

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020512_360.

Same on the GEFS.

More clusters i would suggest though.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

But...At least it'll be mild! God, I've hated that sentence, since 1964!‼️

And this might have been at #1, when I first developed my aversion: 

 

Well they got that wrong about today, dull, misty, foggy at times, no sun, cold, and cold wind. One thing it wasn't was mild lol.

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Ecm 00z takes another step-in the correct/direct...

Heights certainly of gain run 2 run..

 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 168 looks pretty good -

3511E00F-ED6C-42C0-BEF3-78A9468923C1.thumb.png.51acc56ca83569e2cc362873b8ae461f.png

Was surprised that day 8 wasn’t better actually 

raw data says that the day 4 storm ( further south track as per the previous control) delivers gusts off the south coast @ 87 knots with sustained 58 mph and the snow line is in south Wales (inc sw moors) , exiting lincs.    snow depth all down to elevation and intensity of precip. 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Consistent from ecm doesn’t quite get there but it’s trying for sure.

66A3039D-1FEC-42C6-AA5C-2B9173B771E8.png

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

UKMO and ECM not dissimilar at 144z. A plausible solution imo. And hope it comes off as it gives me another cold burst and evolves nicely on ECM which has been hinting at this for a couple of days. Plus a good push west would be nice too. ;)

ECE1-144 (6).gif

UE144-21 (17).gif

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