Cold hunt - models and chat

[markw2680]

I really don’t want to be going down any more garden paths for a while but one can’t help but think it really wouldn’t take much alteration for that cold pool to start encroaching from the east, iv seen it before looking very bleak and then a cold pool appears and gets closer with every run. Maybe nothing but you never no 

[That ECM]

I see people saying that they are going to throw the towel in, not just Don, but many.  No one is throwing the towel in, it’s just frustration that no cold is overly visible. Us coldies start looking at output from late November “just in case” and we keep looking until the season is dead which during any part of Feb it isn’t. Throwing the towel in is really saying, I don’t see much in the way of cold but it’s to early to leave just yet. 

When people are done then they will be saying see you next November. FWIW we still have 5 weeks of opportunity to get cold in. Although of course none may arrive but coldies will keep looking just in case. 

[Don]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

For people who are moaning about Gavin Partridge, why not take it up with him, he is open to being questioned on his website, in the youtube comments boxes, or you could even PM him or mention him on here.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/profile/6446-gavin-p/

I do enjoy his videos and find them interesting.   

[StretfordEnd1996]

Just now, markw2680 said:

I really don’t want to be going down any more garden paths for a while but one can’t help but think it really wouldn’t take much alteration for that cold pool to start encroaching from the east, iv seen it before looking very bleak and then a cold pool appears and gets closer with every run. Maybe nothing but you never no 

I think this is absolutely the type of post that we want to see in here. This being the Cold Hunt thread - and at times where cold hunting is in short supply it's perfectly acceptable I think to post charts like this as a bit of straw clutching - As you say maybe nothing and most likely nothing but I've known countless times during Winters where all we have is countless raging Westerlies after SW after W after SWly winds ... HP next week certainly is off interest in terms of where it could end up. 

[Guest Delete Me]

Gav is a good guy, his videos are well done and informative and he;s going off the data thats available

[Don]

1 minute ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Gav is a good guy, his videos are well done and informative and he;s going off the data thats available

Agreed

[nick sussex]

We’ve been here before during February.

The models look pants and then we see a change after mid month . The thing with the PV is it doesn’t matter if it looks angry it’s where it’s located that’s important .

Many easterlies initially come with that angry looking PV but it elongates in a way to allow a ridge to get ne .

We’ve seen many decent wintry spells in the latter half of February . So for the timebeing any towel throwing is premature .

[MATTWOLVES 3]

18 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Thats cause Yamkin messaged them on twitter and told then the CFS was showing a BFTE in 2 weeks time *rolleyes*

If You think im lying, go look at his twitter feed.....

Do you think they maybe on to something, its  certainly lurking!

[Don]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

We’ve been here before during February.

The models look pants and then we see a change after mid month . The thing with the PV is it doesn’t matter if it looks angry it’s where it’s located that’s important .

Many easterlies initially come with that angry looking PV but it elongates in a way to allow a ridge to get ne .

We’ve seen many decent wintry spells in the latter half of February . So for the timebeing any towel throwing is premature .

I wouldn't mind a February 1994 type easterly which set in around the 13th.  Only lasted a couple of days but was pretty potent and did produce some snow including us in the south.

[Methuselah]

16 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

Ably led by their High Priest Darren Bett 

But...At least it'll be mild! God, I've hated that sentence, since 1964!

And this might have been at #1, when I first developed my aversion: 

 

Edited February 5, 2019 by Ed Stone

[WINTRY WALES]

I know this isn’t the correct thread but how the heck can the express get away posting front page headlines like that?? There’s no modelling suggesting snow Armageddon via a polar vortex arrival anywhere! Gripes me they can get away with it

[Johnp]

21 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Why would you place any trust in what this Gav guy says? Bizarre.

Can you please stop giving out abuse to people you know nothing about?

Gav's a great guy who offers his interpretations of the charts. 

If people don't like those interpretations then I suggest they watch something else instead?

[Highland Blizzard]

Well the cold continues up here in the Highlands this being our 21st continuous day of snow cover so plenty of cold air still about. Looking through the latest charts I don't think it would take much of a swing for cold to return further south too.

Edited February 5, 2019 by Highland Blizzard

[MATTWOLVES 3]

22 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Just for everyone’s info Gavs videos is @Summer Sun here on netweather and we all know what weather he likes . Only joking Gav

Well I be damned, I never actually new that. I think he also posts on weather outlook, I dont think anybody is putting him down, just making a statement on how difficult it's been for all the met guys this year, to be fair I think his historical weather reviews are 1st class.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, Highland Blizzard said:

Well the cold continues up here in the Highlands this being our 21st continuous day of snow cover so plenty of old air still about. Looking through the latest charts I don't think it would take much of a swing for cold to return further south too.

That's really cheered me up, and just to think I nearly took a winter break there, but decided to wait for the fun and games to start down in the midlands

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Well I be damned, I never actually new that. I think he also posts on weather outlook, I dont think anybody is putting him down, just making a statement on how difficult it's been for all the met guys this year, to be fair I think his historical weather reviews are 1st class.

It's definitely not Summer Sun, who is Gavin S on TWO.

Gav's Weather Vids is run by Gavin Partridge, a 'stalwart' of the weather forums for many years.

Shall we move on from Gav related posts now folks?

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

We’ve been here before during February.

The models look pants and then we see a change after mid month . The thing with the PV is it doesn’t matter if it looks angry it’s where it’s located that’s important .

Many easterlies initially come with that angry looking PV but it elongates in a way to allow a ridge to get ne .

We’ve seen many decent wintry spells in the latter half of February . So for the timebeing any towel throwing is premature .

And even later than that in recent years, anyway Feb 1994 was really enjoyable, there was a reload so it wasn't that short, i remember Rob Mcelwee saying on the Thursday night weatherview that he thought the cold air would win out, it did and we got more snow, i would love to know how much this area got from that.

[Bristawl Si]

17 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Gav is a good guy, his videos are well done and informative and he;s going off the data thats available

Like most of the top guys in here then. I thought he was a pro meto guy going by his adoring fan club.

[Don]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And even later than that in recent years, anyway Feb 1994 was really enjoyable, there was a reload so it wasn't that short, i remember Rob Mcelwee saying on the Thursday night weatherview that he thought the cold air would win out, it did and we got more snow, i would love to know how much this area got from that.

Yes, I remember it did turn cold again the following week, albeit with less snow (IMBY).

[MATTWOLVES 3]

13 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

I know this isn’t the correct thread but how the heck can the express get away posting front page headlines like that?? There’s no modelling suggesting snow Armageddon via a polar vortex arrival anywhere! Gripes me they can get away with it

Think that was me gerrin a bit excited after viewing the latest cps run, but give em chance, as soon as we have the next slight frost armaggeddon vortex destruction will probably be the next headline, hey, it works for me, I buy the paper everyday, probably why I'm one of the worst amateur weather predictors on here,

[Ice Day]

Well if the GFS is on the money, that's a concerning storm for Friday, especially for those further north.... 960mb!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Another dreamy easterly? No thanks id rather punch myself in the balls, one northerly 3 day toppler mid month with snow in the usual wishbone places with a more noteworthy cold spell in March, not anything like last year's beast but it can can snow heavily on low ground In march no probs, 

Think this year has been the biggest let down of all, mainly because of the fact we obsess over background signals and everything seemed to point to a good one, but unfortunately the weather has so many different factors involved(many scientists have not yet discovered) it's impossible to get it right alot of the time, 

Think it's better left like that rather than creating another debate, as always lessons learnt and professionals and amateurs alike look back at what went wrong so to speak, as long we all learn from the experience then something good has come out of it, 

Id rather 10inches of snow outside but it's just not our year this year, maybe 1 or 2 days of decent snow cover left in it yet but growing increasingly confident it's a live and learn type of winter! 

Edited February 5, 2019 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[ICE COLD]

26 minutes ago, Johnp said:

It's definitely not Summer Sun, who is Gavin S on TWO.

Gav's Weather Vids is run by Gavin Partridge, a 'stalwart' of the weather forums for many years.

Shall we move on from Gav related posts now folks?

Are you sure John? I’m pretty sure it’s @Summer Sun . There’s only one way to find out @summer sun are you Gavin P ?? 

Please comfirm

[Methuselah]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Are you sure John? I’m pretty sure it’s @Summer Sun . There’s only one way to find out @summer sun are you Gavin P ?? 

Please comfirm

Nyet mate, it's Gavin Partridge...Nowt to do with Summer Sun. As there are no random news-stories!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Are you sure John? I’m pretty sure it’s @Summer Sun . There’s only one way to find out @summer sun are you Gavin P ?? 

Please comfirm

I have posted Gavin P's profile at the top, it is not Gavin P,  Summer Sun and Gavin P, two different people, one from Northants, one from Darlington, SS is Gavin D on two, not Gavin P.