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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
14 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

Hi BA, 

I don`t understand a great deal about the MJO, but looking at the current forecasts going into phase 7 and 8 , shouldn`t we be seeing some sort of HLB in the models by now instead of a raging PV as is been advertised. I do understand there is a lag effect to consider, so when do you expect , if at all, the phase 7 and 8 being picked up by the models? 

Is the WAA over Alaska into the pole something to do with it as well ? . 

ensplume_small.thumb.gif.d67f577be7bdbbb8c141637001efa726.gif

Normally you would expect an MJO moving into a high amplitude phase 7>8 to increase the probability of northern blocking. This winter doesn't seem to repsect the rulebook though...

Anyway, it seems that we need something special from the MJO to make any difference; even a medium amplitude phase 7 implies a much better Atlantic profile than the GFS has been showing. But, MJO forecasts haven't been great this winter; lots of variation in fairly short timeframes. Could it be that the combination of downwelling easterly QBO, developing Modoki EN+ and SSW simply overwhelms any MJO signal? 

A high amplitude phase 8 would be a good test, so we shall see.

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Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
3 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

Normally you would expect an MJO moving into a high amplitude phase 7>8 to increase the probability of northern blocking. This winter doesn't seem to repsect the rulebook though...

Anyway, it seems that we need something special from the MJO to make any difference; even a medium amplitude phase 7 implies a much better Atlantic profile than the GFS has been showing. But, MJO forecasts haven't been great this winter; lots of variation in fairly short timeframes. Could it be that the combination of downwelling easterly QBO, developing Modoki EN+ and SSW simply overwhelms any MJO signal? 

A high amplitude phase 8 would be a good test, so we shall see.

What sort of time frames are you thinking ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

if you say so …..

A567AE24-3405-41C6-8B6A-47E319B9E079.thumb.jpeg.e3a713b96a0fe049277ad1a34d02f541.jpeg

And yes, I know they are not reliable but simply passing on what the model run shows ....

Oh for a bit of verification blue

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
20 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The weekend needs an eye already..

Wouldnt take a great deal of tweeking for snow quite widely in the forecast...ecm 12z...

Already the notions- are noted !!!

ECU1-120.gif

I'll keep my motions to myself, but looks like I picked a good weekend to be in Glasgow. A drive to Loch Lomond beckons...

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Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire

JMA looks like it would maybe set up an easterly by day ten...

Stay tuned until half past ten when we can find out!

Edited by Drifter
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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
1 minute ago, bryan629 said:

What sort of time frames are you thinking ? 

Difficult to tell looking at that chart as it's a bit blurry when I zoom in on my phone, but I think it shows high amplitude phase 8 in around 12 days. Add on a few days for lag and say around 20th February. 

The forecasts MJO will change, but if it keeps hinting at that sort of amplitude in phase 8 and we don't see any signs of northern blocking close by then goodness knows what it would take!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I know ....but you posted that it’s garbage for snow ......................

Looks like a uk upper high in fi 

Sorry mate,my post was based on the uppers which look very mediocre.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Next frame could be interesting to our ne, looking at the 850 winds 

EDIT: or not ! 

Maybe if the ECM wasn't as steamrolly (a new word?) it might have stood a chance. Far enough way for an upgrade maybe?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Sorry mate,my post was based on the uppers which look very mediocre.

While you don't need severely cold uppers on the Northern flank of a runner / shortwave / small low, that chart didn't look like the type to produce a snowfest so i can totally understand your post - just shows you.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
47 minutes ago, IDO said:

....

graphe3_1000_306_149___.thumb.gif.f819ee4f9cce270a8462404788218b1c.gif

Wow it's like a whole 24 hours put right from day dot. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Hmm!

One more easterly tease likely over the next few days . Oh well if we must !

Ay, nearly with you

ECM1-240.GIF?05-0

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
14 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

What sort of time frames are you thinking ? 

Here you go:

IMG_20190205_185824.thumb.jpg.dbf31172d881ae1ab3e931f5b2fe0cfb.jpg

High amplitude phase 8 in February during an EN+ implies above average height anomalies towards Greenland. Worth mentioning that this does not take into account the fact that we are in a developing EN+ and that it looks likely to be Modoki. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

Here you go:

IMG_20190205_185824.thumb.jpg.dbf31172d881ae1ab3e931f5b2fe0cfb.jpg

High amplitude phase 8 in February during an EN+ implies above average height anomalies towards Greenland. Worth mentioning that this does not take into account the fact that we are in a developing EN+ and that it looks likely to be Modoki. 

That isn't just above average heights - WOW!  Thats a stonking big greeny high - the anomaly is so strong.

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Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
5 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

Here you go:

IMG_20190205_185824.thumb.jpg.dbf31172d881ae1ab3e931f5b2fe0cfb.jpg

High amplitude phase 8 in February during an EN+ implies above average height anomalies towards Greenland. Worth mentioning that this does not take into account the fact that we are in a developing EN+ and that it looks likely to be Modoki. 

WOW !! thats certainly worth a straw clutch or three, i just hope something like that verifies. 

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That isn't just above average heights - WOW!  Thats a stonking big greeny high - the anomaly is so strong.

Yes it is. But, I'd like to be able to look at compound anomalies taking into account QBO, ENSO (both trending rather than developed) and the wildcard that is this year's SSW event. On its own, the MJO chart tells us only that in previous months of February where we have EN+ and an MJO phase 8 amplitude>1 northern blocking is more likely. 

Nowhere near enough input in order to gain a clear idea of where we could be given the current setup.

Edited by WhiteFox
Typo
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

ECM smelling the coffee at 120...... 

B9115D12-DF09-42DA-8A73-29C9C1E7D01F.thumb.png.d2b52ec7539d7a59b3c4467da1c345c6.png

Its always tricky to place confidence in mid range changes when the longer range is so westerly! But as ever, and especially this winter,  just watch and wait, the westerly bias in the models could well be off the mark heading forward. We shall see  

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
11 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

Yes it is. But, I'd like to be able to look at compound anomalies taking into account QBO, ENSO (both trending rather than developed) and the wildcard that is this year's SSW event. On its own, the MJO chart tells us only that in previous months of February where we have EN+ and an MJO phase 8 amplitude>1 northern blocked is more likely. 

Nowhere near enough input in order to gain a clear idea of where we could be given the current setup.

El Nino's do favour a cold late winter / early spring though.

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
21 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

Here you go:

IMG_20190205_185824.thumb.jpg.dbf31172d881ae1ab3e931f5b2fe0cfb.jpg

High amplitude phase 8 in February during an EN+ implies above average height anomalies towards Greenland. Worth mentioning that this does not take into account the fact that we are in a developing EN+ and that it looks likely to be Modoki. 

I’m guessing the METO have been seeing something similar in their longer range predictions (though to date nothing has materialised, and they have changed their tune this last week). It kind of makes you wonder if the potential is there but the NWP simply isn’t seeing it yet!? Time will tell.

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Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
57 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

if you say so …..

A567AE24-3405-41C6-8B6A-47E319B9E079.thumb.jpeg.e3a713b96a0fe049277ad1a34d02f541.jpeg

And yes, I know they are not reliable but simply passing on what the model run shows ....

Yes the way i read the ECM that low swings up from the SW keeping midlands north on the northern edge exactly like the chart you attached.

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

El Nino's do favour a cold late winter / early spring though.

 

Yes, that's true. But we're barely into EN+ (still neutral by US definition) and it looks like the Central Pacific region warming so that would possibly imply a different effect from a standard EN+. The PNA has not been typical of EN+, so it leads me to believe that we cannot necessarily expect EN+ analogues to verify.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Latest Gavs Weather Vids outlook paints a pretty bleak picture for the rest of February with very little evidence of any cold.  The long range models have flipped to mild also, so another straw gone.  I said yesterday I would wait until mid month before throwing in the towel, but I'm really on the verge of chucking it in now!!

Edited by Don
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