Cold hunt - models and chat

[frosty ground]

A lot of support for a cold spell this weekend more so than previous GEFS

[Drifter]

7 minutes ago, IDO said:

....

That looks more like Donald Trump's lie detector test.

[bluearmy]

9 hours ago, nick sussex said:

BA do you have the UKMO day 7 chart ? There’s likely to be some support for its day 6  in the ECM given the spreads.

What do you think re the MJO , phase 8 should help us .

Sorry nick , missed this ......MJO phase 8 is brilliant for coldies but the MJO analogues haven’t really cut it this season thus far. 

[winterof79]

10 minutes ago, IDO said:

....

At least FV3 is on the money.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

That looks more like Donald Trump's lie detector test.

When questioned about global warming not happening,

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Double post

 

BFTP

Edited February 5, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[legritter]

Hi gang ,i am around , i have been lurking ,reading all the posts etc .well in my book still time for snowfalls and plenty of action weather .Just a thought but could we see Erik this weekend ,i had an uncle  eric . . Thanks to all the posters who keep this forum alive ,Best forum around .cheers gang  ,sausage sandwiches brown sauce and a STElla to all the Cold Hunters .

[Drifter]

3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

At least FV3 is on the money.

And tonight's Navgem

[bluearmy]

The navgem is way better than gfsp which is simply some cool zonality and a transient chilly norwester in deep fi 

[bryan629]

22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Given the binary nature of the extended eps clusters and the fact that the gefs still have around 40% of members showing a wintry extended solution, I suspect it won’t be long until some decent week 2 ops appear and the thread will become busy and less depressed........if the gfs or para don’t find a wintry week 2 solution over one of their next four runs then start to worry !

Hi BA, 

I don`t understand a great deal about the MJO, but looking at the current forecasts going into phase 7 and 8 , shouldn`t we be seeing some sort of HLB in the models by now instead of a raging PV as is been advertised. I do understand there is a lag effect to consider, so when do you expect , if at all, the phase 7 and 8 being picked up by the models? 

Is the WAA over Alaska into the pole something to do with it as well ? . 

[northwestsnow]

Another garbage EC det..

[tight isobar]

The weekend needs an eye already..

Wouldnt take a great deal of tweeking for snow quite widely in the forecast...ecm 12z...

Already the notions- are noted !!!

Edited February 5, 2019 by tight isobar

[Drifter]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Another garbage EC det..

 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, tight isobar said:

The weekend needs an eye already..

Wouldnt take a great deal of tweeking for snow quite widely in the forecast...ecm 12z...

Already the notion are noted !!!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Drifter said:

 

Im serious, if your after snow, its garbage.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

 

Depends on what your preferences are, its a stonker if you like rain and gale - severe gale force winds.

[tight isobar]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Of course i noted/viewed those overheads...

but as a seasond nw-member i assume you know that the overall evo is king...and those uppers wobbly at that range...thus @tweeking....

Any isobaric teack change..could easily find a quick route of colder pen-of even colder uppers......

@more widespread

Edited February 5, 2019 by tight isobar

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im serious, if your after snow, its garbage.

it dumps about six inches of snow on you mate ………. the dp's look marginal so would be down to intensity bit a worrying looking feature for a few reasons 

Edited February 5, 2019 by bluearmy

[XtremeUKWeather]

Just now, bluearmy said:

it dumps about six inches of snow on you mate ……….

Um no

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, XtremeUKWeather said:

Um no

if you say so …..

And yes, I know they are not reliable but simply passing on what the model run shows ....

Edited February 5, 2019 by bluearmy

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

it dumps about six inches of snow on you mate ………. the dp's look marginal so would be down to intensity bit a worrying looking feature for a few reasons 

TBH blue its more about the general evolution..

[bluearmy]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

TBH blue its more about the general evolution..

I know ....but you posted that it’s garbage for snow ......................

Looks like a uk upper high in fi 

[Vikos]

That massive cold block over Arctic Siberia and the vanished Canada PV cold looks decent to me

 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH blue its more about the general evolution..

^^indeed and at present its getting there.

Lets not 4get the ecm 12z is NOT the only raw teasing with a similar prog/evolution..

Hence-needs eyeing!!!!

[bluearmy]

Next frame could be interesting to our ne, looking at the 850 winds 

EDIT: or not ! 

Edited February 5, 2019 by bluearmy