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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
9 hours ago, nick sussex said:

BA do you have the UKMO day 7 chart ? There’s likely to be some support for its day 6  in the ECM given the spreads.

What do you think re the MJO , phase 8 should help us .

Sorry nick , missed this ......MJO phase 8 is brilliant for coldies but the MJO analogues haven’t really cut it this season thus far. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
10 minutes ago, IDO said:

....

graphe3_1000_306_149___.thumb.gif.f819ee4f9cce270a8462404788218b1c.gif

At least FV3 is on the money.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

That looks more like Donald Trump's lie detector test.

When questioned about global warming not happening,

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Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Given the binary nature of the extended eps clusters and the fact that the gefs still have around 40% of members showing a wintry extended solution, I suspect it won’t be long until some decent week 2 ops appear and the thread will become busy and less depressed........if the gfs or para don’t find a wintry week 2 solution over one of their next four runs then start to worry !

Hi BA, 

I don`t understand a great deal about the MJO, but looking at the current forecasts going into phase 7 and 8 , shouldn`t we be seeing some sort of HLB in the models by now instead of a raging PV as is been advertised. I do understand there is a lag effect to consider, so when do you expect , if at all, the phase 7 and 8 being picked up by the models? 

Is the WAA over Alaska into the pole something to do with it as well ? . 

ensplume_small.thumb.gif.d67f577be7bdbbb8c141637001efa726.gif

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

The weekend needs an eye already..

Wouldnt take a great deal of tweeking for snow quite widely in the forecast...ecm 12z...

Already the notions- are noted !!!

ECU1-120.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, tight isobar said:

The weekend needs an eye already..

Wouldnt take a great deal of tweeking for snow quite widely in the forecast...ecm 12z...

Already the notion are noted !!!

ECU1-120.gif

image.thumb.png.db403924d5d6db70aa461b409e7f6070.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Drifter said:

 

550.jpg

Depends on what your preferences are, its a stonker if you like rain and gale - severe gale force winds.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.db403924d5d6db70aa461b409e7f6070.png

Of course i noted/viewed those overheads...

but as a seasond nw-member i assume you know that the overall evo is king...and those uppers wobbly at that range...thus @tweeking....

Any isobaric teack change..could easily find a quick route of colder pen-of even colder uppers......

@more widespread

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im serious, if your after snow, its garbage.

it dumps about six inches of snow on you mate ………. the dp's look marginal so would be down to intensity bit a worrying looking feature for a few reasons 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

it dumps about six inches of snow on you mate ………. the dp's look marginal so would be down to intensity bit a worrying looking feature for a few reasons 

TBH blue its more about the general evolution..

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, northwestsnow said:

TBH blue its more about the general evolution..

I know ....but you posted that it’s garbage for snow ......................

Looks like a uk upper high in fi 

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

That massive cold block over Arctic Siberia and the vanished Canada PV cold looks decent to me

 

ECH0-168.GIF?05-0

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH blue its more about the general evolution..

^^indeed and at present its getting there.

Lets not 4get the ecm 12z is NOT the only raw teasing with a similar prog/evolution..

Hence-needs eyeing!!!!

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