Cold hunt - models and chat

[frosty ground]

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this winter has failed to deliver on so many occasions. i love winter but this one has me defeated. Bring on the summer. at least we can guarantee some sun and warmth whereas in the winter any resemblance of cold and snow is something rare. definately going somewhere cold and snowy for my hols next winter. Britain is just not the place for cold and snow and its only going to get worse.

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well so much for this winter being two sided with the first half being mild and the second half being cold and snowy. And don't even get me started with the SSW. This winter has been dreadful with the 2 snowfall events being marginal and short lived and hardly worth blinking at. I usually love the winter, especially when we have a few decent snow events but even i am ready to give winter 2018/19 up as a joke now. Roll on the summer. At least we can be guaranteed a good number of sunny...

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This winter now needs to take a hike. It has failed to deliver in so many ways so just bring on the summer now. Winter has had its chance and flunked it big time this year.

Last Thursday / Yesterday / today

I think we get it now, maybe a thread ban until you can learn to post on topic and stop spamming the thread? @Mods   

[Nick F]

15 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

What is causing the restrengthening of the PV? Remember people saying when we had the SSW that the PV would struggle and be in tatters for the rest of winter potentially, seems to be doing the exact opposite and reforming stronger than at any point this winter? Seems to me the theme of this winter is it dies down a little bit then powers up again.

GFS has been showing a strat-trop coupling of westerlies that have returned in the stratosphere from the 10th, so this may be why we are seeing the arctic circle filling with blues and purples (low heights) to our N and NW in the models.

However, this doesn't rule out brief cold polar/arctic shots such is indicated this Sunday, quite a potent arctic blast on 12z GFS op, though doesn't suggest much snow away from northern and northeastern areas.

[IDO]

"A picture paints a thousand words".

[frosty ground]

Not so beautiful anymore, the ridge is pushed away eastwards rather than holding firm hence the reason we lose the warm uppers.

[Thinon]

Spare a thought for the medium range forecasters in New York – only a few days ago the daytime max temp was -12C and today its +17C ! 

And we think UK model-watching is stressful !

[MATTWOLVES 3]

37 minutes ago, snow freak said:

This winter now needs to take a hike.  It has failed to deliver in so many ways so just bring on the summer now.  Winter has had its chance and flunked it big time this year

And when summer fails to deliver, do we say just bring on winter! It's a never ending circle all of this, just because ukmo didn't build on its earlier run. Who's to say ecm won't deliver and tomorrow's runs are a big upgrade, when we reach rock bottom my friend, THE ONLY WAY IS UP @):-

[phil nw.]

A very mobile pattern for the next week at least and we are now in the situation of highlighting anything with a hint of a ridge as a respite from this west to east mobile +nao pattern which has never really left us through much of Winter.

So a little cold snap around day 5 is the only sign of anything from the north

a transient affair which may deliver some snowfall further north briefly but all rather underwhelming.

It's likely we then see the high move in but apart from some frost it looks to be held too far south to promise any real cold from the north or east at this stage.

 

[Stephen W]

After the weekend's windy/wet spell, high pressure settling around the UK seems the most likely scenario and has been pretty consistent now.   It could be very mild depending how far south/east that ends up.  Definitely no chance of it ridging north in the short term.  Models seem to be playing around with some retrogression towards Greenland in FI but I have no confidence given the pattern so far this winter.  It feels as if we're just feeding on the scraps.  As far as the SSW impact, i guess if you live in the US, you'd say it was massive.  Here, had you not known there was a SSW, perhaps we'd never have noticed..

That's just my pure layman's assessment..Meanwhile, i've struggled to see a snowflake, let alone any lying snow and the chances of this winter passing without a decent snowfall in my locale seems to be increasing as we march on through Feb.   Still time I know, but signs are weak at present. 

[Leon1]

Just now, Stephen W said:

After the weekend's windy/wet spell, high pressure settling around the UK seems the most likely scenario and has been pretty consistent now.   It could be very mild depending how far south/east that ends up.  Definitely no chance of it ridging north in the short term.  Models seem to be playing around with some retrogression towards Greenland in FI but I have no confidence given the pattern so far this winter.  It feels as if we're just feeding on the scraps.  As far as the SSW impact, i guess if you live in the US, you'd say it was massive.  Here, had you not known there was a SSW, perhaps we'd never have noticed..

That's just my pure layman's assessment..Meanwhile, i've struggled to see a snowflake, let alone any lying snow and the chances of this winter passing without a decent snowfall in my locale seems to be increasing as we march on through Feb.   Still time I know, but signs are weak at present. 

Always keep the hope. Remember we had no idea what March would bring this time last February. We were getting hints but we didn't know for sure.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Stephen W said:

After the weekend's windy/wet spell, high pressure settling around the UK seems the most likely scenario and has been pretty consistent now.   It could be very mild depending how far south/east that ends up.  Definitely no chance of it ridging north in the short term.  Models seem to be playing around with some retrogression towards Greenland in FI but I have no confidence given the pattern so far this winter.  It feels as if we're just feeding on the scraps.  As far as the SSW impact, i guess if you live in the US, you'd say it was massive.  Here, had you not known there was a SSW, perhaps we'd never have noticed..

That's just my pure layman's assessment..Meanwhile, i've struggled to see a snowflake, let alone any lying snow and the chances of this winter passing without a decent snowfall in my locale seems to be increasing as we march on through Feb.   Still time I know, but signs are weak at present. 

If you lived on the eastern seaboard then you wouldn't agree with that, they to have not been dealt a very favourable hand.

[E17boy]

Good Evening all

Alas I am writing this with a sinking feeling in my heart. Just seems that months of waiting for winter to arrive and sitting here writing this has been a kick in the teeth. With a great sigh of sadness to be honest I think we have had our lolly. We are just waving the left over stick in frustration like a wand hoping that some miracle grace comes to our rescue on the few weeks that are left.

to be honest and looking at the current output I cannot see anything that will lift the mood. This winter was not meant to be despite having some good outside factors. We have still a couple of weeks left and maybe something will change in our favour. Even if it does not I know we will wait for next winter still living in hope. 

Who knows one winter I may be here writing something different.

the search for our winter wonderland will always continue

wishing you all a great evening

regards

[alexisj9]

53 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Dear Marjorie,

I have a friend, whose entire life is dominated by weather-models...

Yours

Distraught of East Suffolk.

PS: Hasn't mookie 10's 'sad' button worn out, yet?

Lol I know her, she lives here in Dover.

[Drifter]

43 minutes ago, IDO said:

"A picture paints a thousand words".

I can only think of one word when looking at that.

[mb018538]

Looks like a Valentine’s Day 1998 redux on the 12z gfs! Uppers at 8c in mid feb?? Crazy.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks like a Valentine’s Day 1998 redux on the 12z gfs! Uppers at 8c in mid feb?? Crazy.

Oh no, not another bloody massacre!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So where from here. HLB won’t take hold, it hasn’t this winter and won’t......nice cold blast coming Sunday, transitory but still cold.  I’m looking now for the Atlantic to play the ball, and hopefully a jetstream shifted south.  Maybe some deep LPs crossing southern half U.K. moving into Benelux to look out for last week of Feb, maybe a sub lows like UKMO shows t120.....could be a nice whip in the tail.

Now wouldn’t it be something if March was very cold again with the main HLB taking hold?

 

BFTP

[bluearmy]

Given the binary nature of the extended eps clusters and the fact that the gefs still have around 40% of members showing a wintry extended solution, I suspect it won’t be long until some decent week 2 ops appear and the thread will become busy and less depressed........if the gfs or para don’t find a wintry week 2 solution over one of their next four runs then start to worry !

Edited February 5, 2019 by bluearmy

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

So where from here. HLB won’t take hold, it hasn’t this winter and won’t......nice cold blast coming Sunday, transitory but still cold.  I’m looking now for the Atlantic to play the ball, and hopefully a jetstream shifted south.  Maybe some deep LPs crossing southern half U.K. moving into Benelux to look out for last week of Feb, maybe a sub lows like UKMO shows t120.....could be a nice whip in the tail.

Now wouldn’t it be something if March was very cold again with the main HLB taking hold?

 

BFTP

An exaction of some of the longer rangers!!!..

@very late feb/early march..

With a whip of heights and again some deep pooling infer...

I hate to use it but...REDUX 2018!!!..

The spaces need watching!!!

[nick sussex]

The GFS Op showing on the GEFS is all wrong.

It’s gone wild from about 12 hrs out .

Edited February 5, 2019 by nick sussex

[IDO]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS Op showing on the GEFS is all wrong.

It’s gone wild from about 12 hrs out .

That is normal for the GFS op!

Try the Control:

[SLEETY]

Huge scatter on gfs ensembles, ridiculous , gfs doesn't have a clue as usual 

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS Op showing on the GEFS is all wrong.

It’s gone wild from about 12 hrs out .

What do you mean wild? - any chance you can post what you are seeing please?

[IDO]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What do you mean wild? - any chance you can post what you are seeing please?

....

[feb1991blizzard]

See what you mean now Nick, input data 5c out - thats hardly going to improve GFS's poor form in terms of accuracy!!

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

An exaction of some of the longer rangers!!!..

@very late feb/early march..

With a whip of heights and again some deep pooling infer...

I hate to use it but...REDUX 2018!!!..

The spaces need watching!!!

And here come the Long Ranger!