Cold hunt - models and chat

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Interesting chart!

Not sure if the 850s would be cold enough for snow though.

Oh no not again!

[frosty ground]

High not ridging as much this run

[feb1991blizzard]

I am liking the GFS run, now anyone who knows me knows i don't start shouting from the rooftops with a NW flow, despite my location, but at least its a whole lot better than was progged a few days ago, just something while we wait for something better, it must be said though, the EPS ens or whatever the BBC use for their automated forecast isn't really seeing it yet.

Edited February 5, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Weathizard]

Interest again at 144... broken record

[northwestsnow]

Oh look a chunk of PV at 144 on UKMO exactly where we dont want it!

 

[frosty ground]

GFS matching the Meto at 120 

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Oh look a chunk of PV at 144 on UKMO exactly where we dont want it!

 

Yep NW ready to move  north west and bring us zero!!!!

Edited February 5, 2019 by swfc

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Interest again at 144... broken record

Reminds me of when I sat on the Ying-Tong Song!

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Interest again at 144... broken record

No interest there i'm afraid, it's game over by that stage.

The ridge is collapsing, the Atlantic positively tilting and the Asian vortex moving over the pole to join its Canadian buddy.

[SLEETY]

Ukmo dreadful, much different than the last run at the end, just CANNOT get sustained northern blocking, so a blink and you miss it northerly topper how exciting

[karyo]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Oh look a chunk of PV at 144 on UKMO exactly where we dont want it!

 

The 144 hour chart from the UKMO is a downgrade from it's earlier output. Typical that it downgrades when it shows cold.

[mountain shadow]

44 minutes ago, fromey said:

ive just seen the ridge over on the pacific side punching its way up towards the pole!!

good or bad??

You can see in the attached UKMO T+144 where it goes wrong. The two ridges in the black boxes cannot meet up due to the vortex lobes transferring energy between one another (red arrows)

[frosty ground]

And yet the Jet still curls back, all it needs is a bit of slack upstream

[Weathizard]

What is causing the restrengthening of the PV? Remember people saying when we had the SSW that the PV would struggle and be in tatters for the rest of winter potentially, seems to be doing the exact opposite and reforming stronger than at any point this winter? Seems to me the theme of this winter is it dies down a little bit then powers up again.

[snow freak]

This winter now needs to take a hike.  It has failed to deliver in so many ways so just bring on the summer now.  Winter has had its chance and flunked it big time this year.

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

You can see in the attached UKMO T+144 where it goes wrong. The two ridges in the black boxes cannot meet up due to the vortex lobes transferring energy between one another (red arrows)

Not sure they would meet up anyway as it's a bloody rare occurrence that would produce a cross polar flow


Changes on the 12z with heights not as deep over Canada

[frosty ground]

Just now, snow freak said:

This winter now needs to take a hike.  It has failed to deliver in so many ways so just bring on the summer now.  Winter has had its chance and flunked it big time this year.

Or don't bother posting in here 

[frosty ground]

Hmmmm I see a chance for a big ridge to be thrown up

[igloo]

10 minutes ago, karyo said:

The 144 hour chart from the UKMO is a downgrade from it's earlier output. Typical that it downgrades when it shows cold.

yes it seems more and more  likely we are about to get the bartlett hp setup just our luck when we are about to get some sort of blocking the pv goes to overdrive mode it just sums up this winter sometimes it aint ment to be

[Weathizard]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Not sure they would meet up anyway as it's a bloody rare occurrence that would produce a cross polar flow


Changes on the 12z with heights not as deep over Canada

Still the residual energy is a headache, this has been predicted to happen many times this winter and it never bloody weakens. No doubt when it finally does it will leave behind just enough to spawn more demonic lows and shortwaves.

[Boro Snow]

5 minutes ago, snow freak said:

This winter now needs to take a hike.  It has failed to deliver in so many ways so just bring on the summer now.  Winter has had its chance and flunked it big time this year.

What a ridiculous post there is still a third of winter left 

[bluearmy]

Ukmo looks like eps cluster 1 

that goes on to ridge across the uk and develop an upper ridge just to our ne on the blocked extended cluster 

[bluearmy]

Just now, Boro Snow said:

What a ridiculous post there is still a third of winter left 

Well a third left but half of that third has been discounted by most here cos they can’t see a snow event on gfs op ! 

[Jason74]

7 minutes ago, snow freak said:

This winter now needs to take a hike.  It has failed to deliver in so many ways so just bring on the summer now.  Winter has had its chance and flunked it big time this year.

Yep. it can do one! or RIP...

[Methuselah]

Dear Marjorie,

I have a friend, whose entire life is dominated by weather-models...

Yours

Distraught of East Suffolk.

PS: Hasn't mookie 10's 'sad' button worn out, yet?

Edited February 5, 2019 by Ed Stone