Cold hunt - models and chat

[nick sussex]

The GEFS certainly show a change from the 00 hrs runs .

A few colder solutions appearing around the 13 and 14 which weren’t there earlier and more from the 15 th.

The depth of cold to the north is pretty good , if we could just squeeze out a bit more amplitude between day 5 and 6 then that could get a bit more interesting .

PS a request to the mods . Now that it’s a lot quieter any chance of bringing back the member names at the bottom of the page .  It’s always a bit weird without them .

Edited February 5, 2019 by nick sussex

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yep hence we have four seasons whatever the weather.Warmth in late September early October  woudnt be classed as summer,just unseasonably warm

Indeed; if it weren't for agreed, precise, scientific, definitions, statistics would be useless - meaningful comparisons would be impossible...But that doesn't preclude the use of more bucolic (and less formal) definitions, when the time arises...was the 'long, hot summer' of 1976 really the exact same length as, say, 2012? 

Does anyone know what the T850s were, during the exceptional warmth of February 1998?

[Derecho]

06z swingometers are out and again they show a mild picture but perhaps not as much as yesterday's mild fest. Not all data was available for the 18z or 00z so these have been deemed void.

Last count today for the 10th of February, which after being forecast for being a mild day for quite a while may now only see temperatures around average, a few are a little on the cold side even. P7 brings a little northerly over us and builds a UK high but doesn't have any cold to tap into later. The lack of cold to our east is notable and we may have to get the high to Greenland in order to get a decent cold spell going.

Nevertheless the step down from mild to something a tad chilly on the 10th is perhaps indicating the models have been too bullish about building high pressure to our SSE.

 

The ensembles haven't really backed down from the strong mild signal around mid month as seen by the 15th of Feb swingometers. Only P15 gets close with a glance of cold aimed at the SE for a short period of time.

 

Again more cold air seems to be pouring out of NE Canada firing the North Atlantic back up, best we can hope for over the next 10 days is brief cold shots of air from Greenland but these are transient.

However it also wouldn't surprise me given recent subtle swings that the model output is overestimating the strength of high pressure to our south, though that may just mean average temperatures in the end rather then mild (as a result of cold air from NE Canada moving far enough east or the odd cold shot from Greenland). 

[Norrance]

Ok guys the definition of Winter dates has been done to death and not for the first time on here. Back to the models please.

Ta.

Edited February 5, 2019 by Norrance

[West is Best]

34 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Meteorological winter is Dec , Jan and Feb.

All winter records cover those months . I’m really not sure why this new view of winter has taken off in here !

Wow I didn't think my post would generate quite the response but I guess it's a sign of the pretty awful models for coldies. As I mentioned in the post earlier, we can still get substantial snowfall in March and even April. But there's no getting away from the meteorological fact that winter ends in just over 3 weeks and that the clock, therefore, is now ticking. I guess we all know this so it's perhaps unwise to repeat it too often (sorry). The 6z run is a gruesome affair. I suppose a crumb of comfort is that the high pressure isn't static, so it can't really be called a Bartlett. In fact, in the 6z it retrogrades to the UK before heading off to Germany .. which is coincidentally where Mrs May should be going. I suppose in theory a run or two might show it going further and dragging in an easterly. But this is clutching at straws.

It's a tad grim. We're entering the latter stages of winter on a mild note with little obvious cheer.

[Frosty.]

Very strong support from the GEFS 6z mean for a prolonged anticyclonic spell from early next week onwards, temps close to average by day and feeling pleasant in the sunshine but where skies clear overnight there would be widespread at least slight frosts and  fog patches, some of which could be the freezing variety...before that, potentially a mini cold snap later this weekend into the start of next week as winds briefly swing Northerly with a risk of wintry showers, (even some snow showers) the shower risk especially further north and down east / west coastal areas along with a few sharper inland frosts.

Edited February 5, 2019 by Frosty.

[Geordiesnow]

Wow..  read the last few pages on here and tbere has not been one single post about the deep low potentially hitting the UK for Saturday. All models agree on it with even the usually modest UKMO going for quite a deep low in its output. Of course the details could change and it could be more run of the mill stuff but one to keep an eye on because theres bound to be some disruption if the models are right. 

Further ahead most models are hinting the Azores high coming into play bringing widespread double figure temperatures but as the UKMO shows this is by no means a certainty and something colder may come into play again. 

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Wow I didn't think my post would generate quite the response but I guess it's a sign of the pretty awful models for coldies. As I mentioned in the post earlier, we can still get substantial snowfall in March and even April. But there's no getting away from the meteorological fact that winter ends in just over 3 weeks and that the clock, therefore, is now ticking. I guess we all know this so it's perhaps unwise to repeat it too often (sorry). The 6z run is a gruesome affair. I suppose a crumb of comfort is that the high pressure isn't static, so it can't really be called a Bartlett. In fact, in the 6z it retrogrades to the UK before heading off to Germany .. which is coincidentally where Mrs May should be going. I suppose in theory a run or two might show it going further and dragging in an easterly. But this is clutching at straws.

It's a tad grim. We're entering the latter stages of winter on a mild note with little obvious cheer.

I wouldn’t lose hope yet WIB.

Some better signs upto day 6 and still time for changes . Let’s see what happens tonight .

[Yarmy]

The 6z GEFS suite has several very blocked perturbs at the @rse-end of the run, for what it's worth:

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=11&ech=384

Normally I wouldn't bother posting them, but this is still the cold-hunting thread, winter still has at least 4 weeks to run, and why the hell not.

 

 

Edited February 5, 2019 by Yarmy

[frosty ground]

52 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GEFS certainly show a change from the 00 hrs runs .

A few colder solutions appearing around the 13 and 14 which weren’t there earlier and more from the 15 th.

The depth of cold to the north is pretty good , if we could just squeeze out a bit more amplitude between day 5 and 6 then that could get a bit more interesting .

PS a request to the mods . Now that it’s a lot quieter any chance of bringing back the member names at the bottom of the page .  It’s always a bit weird without them .

[ICE COLD]

I think there words extremely uncertain are the words this week for the medium to longer term . Take the outputs across the board with tons of salt . The meto outlook has not got a clue what will happen so there is no chance us on here have lol . At least we have a straw to clutch onto . 

Edited February 5, 2019 by ICE COLD

[lassie23]

9 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I think there words extremely uncertain are the words this week for the medium to longer term . Take the outputs across the board with tons of salt . The meto outlook has not got a clue what will happen so there is no chance us on here have lol . At least we have a straw to clutch onto . 

Might as well flip a coin for the outcome of the second half of February

[Tn9]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I think we should just treat Background Signals, the same way we treat everything else...Initialise them!?

Thats a good user name "putting it mildly" classic 

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

Some heavy snow showing for the Brecon Beacons again this Thursday so perhaps not just for northern high ground like many forecasters are saying..... our sledges are waiting for round 2 on south Wales' high ground 

Edited February 5, 2019 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[frosty ground]

6 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Some heavy snow showing for the Brecon Beacons again this Thursday so perhaps not just for northern high ground like many forecasters are saying..... our sledges are waiting for round 2 on south Wales' high ground 

Top of a mountain by an chance?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Some heavy snow showing for the Brecon Beacons again this Thursday so perhaps not just for northern high ground like many forecasters are saying..... our sledges are waiting for round 2 on south Wales' high ground 

Wrong thread and perhaps a bit of inyabackyardism!! But what I will say is winter certainly not done, very mixed signals emerging toward mid Feb, this ultra slow down welling could still prove a saviour a little further down the road, chances of a Premier beast from the east maybe remote, but a championship version is still Highley likely,

[Methuselah]

I can no-longer cope with these model-runs, so I'm going to finish myself off, according to the Samurai code: I'm going to commit origami; I'm going to fold myself into multi-dimensional spacetime and disappear up my eleven weebles!

Edited February 5, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Faronstream]

If its going to be this mild as it shows last days then i don't want any late cold in the end of february/beginning of march. It will be just slippery forever if changing all the time

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Wrong thread and perhaps a bit of inyabackyardism!! But what I will say is winter certainly not done, very mixed signals emerging toward mid Feb, this ultra slow down welling could still prove a saviour a little further down the road, chances of a Premier beast from the east maybe remote, but a championship version is still Highley likely,

Ah yes sorry I thought I was posting in the Wales thread that's what happens when I have various threads open on this little phone, I'll have to think of another way 

Edited February 5, 2019 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[SMU]

Noted again is now the ICON 12z moving fully to the UKMO solution-

Weekend looks cold - especially in the North bit a bit of snow -

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Noted again is now the ICON 12z moving fully to the UKMO solution-

Weekend looks cold - especially in the North bit a bit of snow -

The Jet is taking a longer route 12z vs 0z

[fromey]

12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Noted again is now the ICON 12z moving fully to the UKMO solution-

Weekend looks cold - especially in the North bit a bit of snow -

ive just seen the ridge over on the pacific side punching its way up towards the pole!!

good or bad??

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, fromey said:

ive just seen the ridge over on the pacific side punching its way up towards the pole!!

good or bad??

Depends how far into the pole it gets.

If it is sufficiently amplified to split the vortex in twain then great and opens up proper high latitude block opportunities, however, if the vortex doesn't split then the Canadian vortex energy will keep getting fed by the Asian portion and give us Westerlies.

[tight isobar]

10 minutes ago, fromey said:

ive just seen the ridge over on the pacific side punching its way up towards the pole!!

good or bad??

A good sign...and 1 we need to see more construcive-..in both alignment..and force.

[Johnp]

Interesting chart!

Not sure if the 850s would be cold enough for snow though.