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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Et voila: le petit stonkeur; le stonkeurette; le petit toppleur...Sacre bleu! Zut! Merde!

image.thumb.png.ceb5be6ad86daf3d991a3f125377eea2.pngimage.thumb.png.2a2fbac41597e2dbb79c905f465ef43c.png  

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Et voila: le petit stonkeur; le stonkeurette; le petit toppleur...Sacre bleu! Zut! Merde!

image.thumb.png.ceb5be6ad86daf3d991a3f125377eea2.pngimage.thumb.png.2a2fbac41597e2dbb79c905f465ef43c.png  

 

And for those of us who never did French at school!! There you go, the little stonker, the little toppler, damn it, heck, s--t,

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
48 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

but what about France where you are? winter ended last year here on 19th March

Did it? I had a snowfall on 2nd of April...

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
22 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

A strong high that blocks and eventually migrates northward.PV spins itself into oblivion 

As per GEFS general trend.

Experience will tell you the high normally sinks Southwards

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Experience will tell you the high normally sinks Southwards

Yes experience told us that we should have experienced the effects of downwelling and a reversal of tropospheric winds by now.... but hey ho

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Are 850's representative of 2m temps under high pressure?

I think that chart gives you the answer to that question, if they were, you would be looking at temps of 20c!!

In future - D.N.R.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think that chart gives you the answer to that question, if they were, you would be looking at temps of 20c!!

In future - D.N.R.

Do not reply?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Could easily see some high temps, due to Foehn (sp?) effect, in the usual places (North Wales & Moray Firth) were something like what these charts suggest ever to verify?

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

18z Para is coming out now, while also the 6z para is coming out.

0z para will be lost forever

Edited by Snowman.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Putting it mildly, this is not the finale to winter i'm hoping for from the Gfs 6z operational although it would feel very pleasant all the same..bl**dy background signals!!!:diablo::gathering:

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06_372_ukthickness850.png

06_372_mslp850.png

06_372_uk2mtmp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Putting it mildly, this is not the finale to winter i'm hoping for from the Gfs 6z operational although it would feel very pleasant all the same..bl**dy background signals!!!:diablo::gathering:

06_300_ukthickness850.png

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06_300_uk2mtmp.png

06_372_ukthickness850.png

06_372_mslp850.png

06_372_uk2mtmp.png

I think we should just treat Background Signals, the same way we treat everything else...Initialise them!?

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
39 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Are 850's representative of 2m temps under high pressure?

No, that's dependent on the dominant wind direction. Typically south equals warm, west average, north or east cold. Night frost as long as high is clear though whatever direction.

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2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Can we put to bed this guff regarding winter .

Winter is Dec, Jan, Feb .

Its a nonsense  to call winter ending March 21 st . The last time I looked this is a weather site not an astronomy one .

To use the logic that winter ends 21 March then means winter starts Dec 21 st.

The US for some bizarre reason peddles this nonsense but thankfully UK forecasters haven’t followed this .

Moan over !

Wow. From someone who comes across as being rather clued up on this weather lark, that certainly is a very narrow minded view.

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

Please Can you help us novices by keeping to the facts. Don't get I to petty sniping and having a go at each other. It's not cricket 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Thanks but its not narrow minded . Meteorological winter is Dec , Jan and Feb.

All winter records cover those months . I’m really not sure why this new view of winter has taken off in here !

Yep hence we have four seasons whatever the weather.Warmth in late September early October  woudnt be classed as summer,just unseasonably warm

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

OK let's put the topic to bed. Astronomical seasons are relative to the position of the earth's orbit around the sun, taking into account equinoxes and soltices. Meteorological seasons are instead based on the annual temperature cycles measuring the meteorological state and coinciding gregorian calender to determine a clear transition and equal length season's! So let's all agree to have a different view on this and move on folks!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GEFS are still mixed early on but more now showing the jet cut back into the UK.

# Keep the faith!

I've been trying too all winter...noticed in the papers yesterday (The Mirror, yes I know) a MetO spokesman mentioned the second half of February will be colder, another straw to grasp?

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

OK let's put the topic to bed. Astronomical seasons are relative to the position of the earth's orbit around the sun, taking into account equinoxes and soltices. Meteorological seasons are instead based on the annual temperature cycles measuring the meteorological state and coinciding gregorian calender to determine a clear transition and equal length season's! So let's all agree to have a different view on this and move on folks!

There are four seasons however you word it.They may vary in there characteristics but that's what there is.Anyway nothing much cheer wise on the mo so far today,lets hope the 12z bring biblical cold!!!

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.

Coldies use the alternative calendar, which has winter from November 1st until May 1st, or slightly shorter if they’ve had good mental health over the previous 12 months. 

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