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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
7 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Spanish Meto have been bang on the money with theirs, for Iberia. 

Really? I have a house in Spain so follow the weather closely and throughout December and into January Amet were forecasting a wet winter across Iberia indicating low pressire, instead Spain has been under almost constant high pressure and I recorded just 17mm or rain in the whole of Dec and Jan.

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
9 minutes ago, West is Best said:

And the trouble is, the clock's ticking. We all know we can get substantial snowfall in March and even April. But meteorological winter ends in a little over 3 weeks 

Thank God!!!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
10 minutes ago, West is Best said:

And the trouble is, the clock's ticking. We all know we can get substantial snowfall in March and even April. But meteorological winter ends in a little over 3 weeks 

The Met O  can call it what it likes, 21st of March in my book.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
9 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

As per usual thought the world had ended reading the thread....

Then had a look myself at 144z

GEFS mean ,ECM, UKMO.

Not bad

 

 

gens-21-1-144.png

ECM1-144.gif

UW144-21.gif

In context, the above is a mini-ridge in the flow with no sustainability. Maybe, a day or two of colder uppers, but we get these transient lows every winter so seasonal. Moving on two days and ECM, GFS, and GEM topple the mini-ridge. Just what latitude the UK high sits as to what the surface conditions are? The GEFS mean at D8:

gens-21-0-192.thumb.png.b433922244c991e0a8022f7fee53a886.png1245956832_gens-21-1-192(1).thumb.png.7ae3f22daec2f67831f3042b8a096e15.png

Signs on the GEFS after D9 that the wave train of high cells are going to stop around the E Atlantic sector so the interest is how the high anomaly develops close to the UK; ridge, Mid-latitude high or HLB?

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
4 minutes ago, IDO said:

In context, the above is a mini-ridge in the flow with no sustainability. Maybe, a day or two of colder uppers, but we get these transient lows every winter so seasonal. Moving on two days and ECM, GFS, and GEM topple the mini-ridge. Just what latitude the UK high sits as to what the surface conditions are? The GEFS mean at D8:

gens-21-0-192.thumb.png.b433922244c991e0a8022f7fee53a886.png1245956832_gens-21-1-192(1).thumb.png.7ae3f22daec2f67831f3042b8a096e15.png

Signs on the GEFS after D9 that the wave train of high cells are going to stop around the E Atlantic sector so the interest is how the high anomaly develops close to the UK; ridge, Mid-latitude high or HLB?

Yes but no Atlantic onslaught that I read about or winter ending IDO.

Hoping the high sits benificially to start with.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Yes but no Atlantic onslaught that I read about or winter ending IDO.

Hoping the high sits benificially to start with.

Knowing how this winter’s gone so far and judging by how the last high just sat to our southwest for weeks on end wiping out wintry potential from approx Dec 24th through nearly all of Jan I wouldn’t care to bet on this high doing us any great favours in this respect either. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM goes from last nights horror show to today’s blah run!

Across the models there is some much colder air to the north at day 6 but not enough upstream amplitude.

The UKMO probably the best as that could topple the ridge more favourably . Interestingly it does transfer the PV lobe from Asia but still has the more sharper upstream trough so less energy would move east .

Looking at the ECM spreads , some support for the ridge toppling more favourably . The op is right at the top of solutions from day 7.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Big spreads on the eps

gefs show a trend towards the pattern we thought we would get to - just a month later .......

finding the ec op ne Pacific rather an odd look so would discard it upstream for that reason. Mid lat high looking strong for nw Europe in conjunction with sceuro upper ridge 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, bluearmy said:

Big spreads on the eps

gefs show a trend towards the pattern we thought we would get to - just a month later .......

finding the ec op ne Pacific rather an odd look so would discard it upstream for that reason. Mid lat high looking strong for nw Europe in conjunction with sceuro upper ridge 

BA do you have the UKMO day 7 chart ? There’s likely to be some support for its day 6  in the ECM given the spreads.

What do you think re the MJO , phase 8 should help us .

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO settling down at D7 ECM at the same time has the high further south allowing milder air to work in

ukm2.2019021200_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.1bf9d6d829d9629c7253707cacfae14a.pngecm2.2019021200_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.175c35f34842aeadccc7d845fe7af2df.png

UKMO Looks a stronger better position than yesterdays 12z day 7

image.thumb.png.aa9d4f30c820010acda07bbbbd40deaa.png

image.thumb.png.ccd923e261088b8e9b97889dd5bf6d13.png

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Aye, hopefully rubbish spell will only last a week, near enough full agreement of high pressure arriving around 12th, not cold but at least dry

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
1 hour ago, 78/79 said:

The Met O  can call it what it likes, 21st of March in my book.

And quite right you are too. The seasons are set by the cosmos, not a government agency. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

As Blue alluded to the GEFS are trending to where we thought we should be a month late.

The predicted MLB over us could be the catalyst which shuts the Canadian Lobe up...….finally

gens_panel_ckf6.png

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2 hours ago, West is Best said:

And the trouble is, the clock's ticking. We all know we can get substantial snowfall in March and even April. But meteorological winter ends in a little over 3 weeks 

The clock can tick all it likes lol, with snow events outside of meteorological winter in recent years there's no need for tears just yet.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
36 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

As Blue alluded to the GEFS are trending to where we thought we should be a month late.

The predicted MLB over us could be the catalyst which shuts the Canadian Lobe up...….finally

gens_panel_ckf6.png

 

FB_IMG_1549358342613.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

I think the outlook is becoming a little clearer to me.

Firstly increasing support that some may well see snowfall around 12th Feb as the low clears to the E. The GEFS show this nicely with the dip towards -7C in my location.

t850Cambridgeshire.png

The tricky part is beyond as the UKMO continues to be the best output. My thoughts are something inbetween the UKMO and ECM. I do not believe an E,ly will develop as this is where the UKMO +168 is heading. I neither believe in the position of the high by the ECM. So no E,ly or S,ly but instead high pressure being centred directly over the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
41 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

 

The predicted MLB over us could be the catalyst which shuts the Canadian Lobe up...….finally

gens_panel_ckf6.png

Given that we are downstream from the Canadian lobe of doom, how does an MLB over us impact it?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Can we put to bed this guff regarding winter .

Winter is Dec, Jan, Feb .

Its a nonsense  to call winter ending March 21 st . The last time I looked this is a weather site not an astronomy one .

To use the logic that winter ends 21 March then means winter starts Dec 21 st.

The US for some bizarre reason peddles this nonsense but thankfully UK forecasters haven’t followed this .

Moan over !

Fixed dates mean Jack IMO so not really fussed what others call it, to me its about the period which you can get snow realistically and the period you can't.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Can we put to bed this guff regarding winter .

Winter is Dec, Jan, Feb .

Its a nonsense  to call winter ending March 21 st . The last time I looked this is a weather site not an astronomy one .

To use the logic that winter ends 21 March then means winter starts Dec 21 st.

The US for some bizarre reason peddles this nonsense but thankfully UK forecasters haven’t followed this .

Moan over !

but what about France where you are? winter ended last year here on 19th March

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Fixed dates mean Jack IMO so not really fussed what others call it, to me its about the period which you can get snow realistically and the period you can't.

IMO, winter ends as and when Mother Nature says it does, and not when humanity dictates...What was March 2013, if not an extension to winter? I prefer to leave the answer, to that question, to flora and fauna; calendar definitions can go whistle...

One thing is certain, however: the winter of 2019 is most certainly not over yet...ask Michael!

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Duly noted is the move from the ICON 06z to the UKMO solution at 120 with the shallow atlantic trough moving SE past Ireland & a more amplified solution towards Greenland -

This model discussion should have been titled "Waiting for Godot"!

Getting our cold kicks from transient features like that is how this winter has passed.

As for the SSW downwelling, I look at it as "The Gunfight at the OK Corral"...

...without the gunfight.

Nice loop of the downwelling:

https://video.twimg.com/tweet_video/DyljCn4W0AA6_gJ.mp4

source: "https://twitter.com/alopezlang/status/1092513489707503617

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
59 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Given that we are downstream from the Canadian lobe of doom, how does an MLB over us impact it?

 

A strong high that blocks and eventually migrates northward.PV spins itself into oblivion 

As per GEFS general trend.

Edited by winterof79
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