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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

GFS para (aka FV3) highlights the potential shown on EC.

overall the models are on the move. so much to be decided but certainly heading colder rather than milder.....

34067797-8AD1-4D70-BF15-32AEFF32032E.thumb.png.63b151e1c75843e47e332e5fed93dfae.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
25 minutes ago, Ydoj said:

Just been reading pages 10-20 thinking they were the latest updates

Probably best you keep reading from there, things were looking much more promising!! Made me laugh though

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)

This is progress at day 10 (EPS) - not a dream chart but trending the right way.

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

Edited by mulzy
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, mulzy said:

This is progress at day 10 (EPS) - not a dream chart but trending the right way.

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

What about the extended please?

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

It may be good it may be bad, but at least it's consistent! cfs-0-192.thumb.png.bc857b0126c02c5968925aef46119ae1.png

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What about the extended please?

The best for a while - strong heights over the Greenland locale with low heights centred in both the mid-Atlantic and western Russia.  By day 15 link is made between the two low height centres (could do with that link being stronger and the intensity of the low heights in mid-Atlantic being less intense, but progress!)

Edited by mulzy
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The best for a while - strong heights over the Greenland locale with low heights centred in both the mid-Atlantic and western Russia.  By day 15 link is made between the two low height centres (could do with that link being stronger and the intensity of the low heights in mid-Atlantic being less intense, but progress!)

Thank you sir.

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StretfordEnd1996 Community Regular

StretfordEnd1996

Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
Posted (edited)

I'm seeing some fair cross model agreement for an attempted push up of High Pressure from the South in around 7-9 days time.

ECM below actually makes a good deal of it and stretches it right over the country

image.thumb.png.935ef6e732b6a73073bee457f32e09d1.png

More subdued and unsure on GFS 

image.thumb.png.1827a49580c2ccebfed8160d8b3eda8d.png

But nonetheless I do occasionally like to see this when there's nothing in the way of cold standing out - it's far better than low pressure pumping in from the West and there's a chance any HP pushing up in 7 days+ time may end up in a position we all want it to end up.

Yes, there's probably a better chance it won't get up to much but at least there's 'something' going on.  

Edited by StretfordEnd1996
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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted
27 minutes ago, mulzy said:

This is progress at day 10 (EPS) - not a dream chart but trending the right way.

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

Boo

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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

All I can see in the days ahead, is a strong jet stream, firing up against the sub tropical high as we know it as the Azores high, deep cold in the North east of the United States often brings us some potential stormy weather, Although , there is still plenty of time for Winter....:yahoo:PS don't throw all the Toys out of the Pram for Winter Weather just yet:oldrofl:

tumblr_nfjlxiKuGS1t1nar6o1_500.gif

IMG_0883_thumb_JPG_fcaf8fda20662d4e807d883e7bdd7695.jpg

jet.png

jetx.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)

I see Mountain Shadow has his usual fit of the giggles again.

EDIT : has Essex snowman hijacked your account?

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted

I'm looking forward to the 18z tonight, The 12z today started the changes nice and early in the run, more steps towards higher amplification from 72 onwards and I'll dip in here and update. The changes early on were quite significant. Let's hope the pub run is on the sherry tonight and amplifies like the lunatic we know it can be! Seriously though, I'm hoping this is a trend and that the 18z improves further again tonight.

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syed2878 Rising Star

syed2878

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
Posted
3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes at T216 lots of members pushing heights north,  and that's well before the high pressure in Europe really gets established, so a good chance that might not happen at all.  

No Narnia charts on the radar at the moment, but this could well change into the second part of the month.  Which, while it's quiet in here, prompts me to ask why are snowmageddon charts always referred to as 'Narnia' or 'Nirvana'?  Granted they both begin with 'N' but beyond that there's no similarity at all, Nirvana is a Buddhist state of contentment, and Narnia is a village near Didcot:

image.thumb.jpg.31a469e16af09fd5ffadfc071b72dd55.jpg

In neither case do I see the connection to snow!  (Apart from in the picture!  Must have been during the Beast that! :oldgrin:)

   well it may not be the best output but it could so easily change now to see gnarlier chart on the model I think we should carry out the ritual light the blue fire and then we can call the white which to get rid of the Canadian PV and give us the Narnia charge we desire 

 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensembles are very interesting tonight at D8: pretty much a 50/50 split between the GFS op and GFS parallel scenario.

 

WOW - so 50% clusters then and one is a stonker.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

WOW - so 50% clusters then and one is a stonker.

 

Mountain shadow 

3A23B608-C7F7-447E-BE7F-41BD4A4888E0.jpeg

Edited by That ECM
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensembles are very interesting tonight at D8: pretty much a 50/50 split between the GFS op and GFS parallel scenario.

 

As mulzy mentioned, seeing the mean euro high anoms dispensed with by day 14 is a step forward. Assume clusters will show some euro low anoms and in conjunction with a trend to higher anoms to our north we may be onto something - let’s hope whatever it is accelerates as would rather see cod arrive by 15/20th. Last years BFTE has uppers and thicknesses that were  pretty extreme and I wouldn’t expect that to repeat. the earlier the better as the month progresses.....

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted

ICON 18z a lot less amplified at 120 compared to the 12z.

Never rated that model anyway! 

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

WOW - so 50% clusters then and one is a stonker.

I'd guess at least three clusters, as a number of runs are sort of halfway between the two. But there are clearly two main camps.

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Rascals Revenge Apprentice

Rascals Revenge

Posted
  • Location: Ascot, Berkshire
  • Location: Ascot, Berkshire
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

As mulzy mentioned, seeing the mean euro high anoms dispensed with by day 14 is a step forward. Assume clusters will show some euro low anoms and in conjunction with a trend to higher anoms to our north we may be onto something - let’s hope whatever it is accelerates as would rather see cod arrive by 15/20th. Last years BFTE has uppers and thicknesses that were  pretty extreme and I wouldn’t expect that to repeat. the earlier the better as the month progresses.....

Last year's 2nd bfteast appeared at very short notice. Im expecting the same before the end of feb.

Edited by Rascals Revenge
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StretfordEnd1996 Community Regular

StretfordEnd1996

Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

CMON 18z - throw one out.

I'm not overly expectant on the 18z to deliver much - think if we're going to get something cold wise it'll be more of a gradual thing with lots of twists and turns along the way - we have to start something though - 
How about that 240 day 10 chart for the 1000 time this Winter?

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