Cold hunt - models and chat

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

 Who's to say the SSW causes very mild temps instead of cold. Maybe we are in the wrong place this time around but whow seriously wants -40 wind chill like in the U.S. By the way the gfs does look very mild this morning. Not to say it will verify of course. 

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

 Who's to say the SSW causes very mild temps instead of cold. Maybe we are in the wrong place this time around but whow seriously wants -40 wind chill like in the U.S. By the way the gfs does look very mild this morning. Not to say it will verify of course. 

Agreed.

Little in the NWP this morning for coldies IMHO.

Last of last tues snow cover about to vanish this afternoon and it could be a while before it returns round here..

[snowfish1]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed.

Little in the NWP this morning for coldies IMHO.

Last of last tues snow cover about to vanish this afternoon and it could be a while before it returns round here..

At least you had some 

[Methuselah]

Not the most exciting of runs, it has to be said...And if the real weather evolves anything like that, I'll be turning my eyes toward future potential water shortages.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

21 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

 Who's to say the SSW causes very mild temps instead of cold. Maybe we are in the wrong place this time around but whow seriously wants -40 wind chill like in the U.S. By the way the gfs does look very mild this morning. Not to say it will verify of course. 

Maybe! But wouldn't it be nice to be able to turn round and say all of us on netweather had just been part of the coldest weather in a generation! This place would be in meltdown, I think we deserve it, we probably spend more time than anywhere in the world looking for these extremes, and we end up looking at the dross that gfs spills out in 2 weeks. We have major flips, it happens, it will happen, the chase can't be given up till the final 3rd of the month. 

[mb018538]

37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not the most exciting of runs, it has to be said...And if the real weather evolves anything like that, I'll be turning my eyes toward future potential water shortages.

Won’t be long before I’m starting to look for charts like that! Bit early in the year at the moment, but In around 10 weeks time it’ll be the middle of April....it reached 29c last year.

Nothing much to get excited about again today. Temps in the 9-12c for the next 7-10 days in many areas, anything but wintry.

[Drifter]

GFSP sniffing out a Scandi high and the building blocks are in place before FI.

[Weather-history]

48 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not the most exciting of runs, it has to be said...And if the real weather evolves anything like that, I'll be turning my eyes toward future potential water shortages.

Exact opposite

Edited February 3, 2019 by Weather-history

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Drifter said:

GFSP sniffing out a Scandi high and the building blocks are in place before FI.

Sniffing out a smelly sock, more like! 

[oliverek7]

Pretty sloppy anomalies for mid feb on EC model but we are still two weeks away so could easily change (praying to god).

 

[danm]

No cold in the models for a while it seems.

I’d rather have sunny, mild weather than wind and rain that’s for sure. 

Edited February 3, 2019 by danm

[Methuselah]

At least Day 10's back on board, and smelling some coffee:

[The Northern Ramper]

51/51 sniffing out an Icelandic wedge, that’s enough to keep my winter interest.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yeh February may still go out with a raw. The potential for higher heights devoloping to the north and the jet taking a more southerly direction, so I would have thought any systems would be bringing a snow risk to South of UK. Far from a done deal this month, let's just see if subsequent model runs over the next 48-72hrs can start latching onto it

Edited February 3, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Derecho]

Good morning / afternoon

The swingometers are showing a mild picture again this morning, some uncertainty as to how mild things will be. For February 10th for example it may be a mild westerly or we could catch some cooler uppers from the cold over NE Canada. Wouldn't bring anything much in the way of exciting mind. 1 or 2 members build a little high to our north but that is it. The UKMO looks interesting... perhaps a cheeky height rise over Greenland diverting the low pressure systems further south (P3 tries but fails). However this is clutching at straws.

 

Later on and the GFS ensembles are remarkably consistent it must be said, either anticyclonic or very mild seems to be the main picture and this is shown by the swingometers. If I were to make a punt I would go for a few very mild days following the high moving over the UK. We have seen a few times how a high pressure with large positive heights at the 500hpa level move to Greenland to help develop a formidable block but again this is clutching at straws. For February 15th, best I could find is this (P7).

 

However many ensemble members are mild by Feb 15th (still), the global temperature anomalies show a very cold NE Canada yet again so it should be no surprise a positive NAO in the output remains at the moment.

 

[Methuselah]

Not much more than a snifter, at this stage, but the potential is there:

Though the GEFS 06Z ensemble suggests that said 'potential' might be an artefact of scatter?

Edited February 3, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Drifter]

40 minutes ago, danm said:

No cold in the models for a while it seems.

I’d rather have sunny, mild weather than wind and rain that’s for sure. 

Apart from the one I mentioned earlier.

[Drifter]

40 minutes ago, Ramp said:

51/51 sniffing out an Icelandic wedge, that’s enough to keep my winter interest.

I think BA will have something to say on that later.

Doesn't one cluster just mean the scatter is too wide?

[feb1991blizzard]

25 minutes ago, Drifter said:

I think BA will have something to say on that later.

Doesn't one cluster just mean the scatter is too wide?

Not this time, i doubt Hugo would state its 51 out of 51 if it was just a default computer setting at work, plus its too short a timeframe.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

OK so far this winter has been milder than most of the background signals suggested. While blocking has occurred, the positioning seems to have been unfavourable. The SSW that occurred late December which became a split vortex early January now seems to have recovered. The weak westerly winds though are still in evidence through the atmosphere and will probably Continue for quite some time, so in that respect we still have hope. So basically as long as this continues across the Nh, blocking will still be prone to set up shop. Also worth mentioning is that the tropical waters of the Pacific continue to be warm, this can also lead to blocking. So the USA which as recently been subject to insane cold conditions will occasionally push stronger pulses of jet stream activity towards us. So wet conditions will be in evidence at times, so I would assume as long as we keep these signals, further snow events will remain possible in association with any blocking that sets up shop. We have had a distinct lack of easterlies this winter, but perhaps going on the evidence still a little Ray of hope for later this month!

[nick sussex]

NCEP pointed out this morning that the GEFS ensembles over the east Pacific are in disagreement with the ECM.

They prefer the ECM ensembles . As they also have more support from the GEM.

The MJO continues to turn into the Da Vinci Code with polar opposite views as to what happens there . 

Historically the ECM has a better verification of that than the GFS.

In terms of the outputs today a trend to have the jet further south helped by the wedge of heights to the north .

The disagreements over the east Pacific centre around northern and southern stream jet phasing and interaction . The GFS is woeful in this respect . Recent weeks have shown its inability to handle that and this issue also effects the GEFS.

The outlook on the face of it upto day ten isn’t great from a cold perspective barring the GFS para which does though develop a Scandi ridge and the ECM hints at this by day ten .

We’ve seen these false dawns before so too early to say whether this is another wild goose chase .

I think though if there’s to be anything of interest it’s more likely to be a block there than Greenland initially .

The upstream pattern isn’t condusive to Greenland blocking .

The Canadian PV lobe has set up shop and just refuses to leave the scene however it’s whether we can shift that into a better position , so it might remain but can it orientate in a way to help get a ridge to the ne of the UK.

We’ll see. I’m slightly more positive today than yesterday which of course wouldn’t be difficult !

[Vikos]

What makes me so currios is the fact, that a couple of days ago there where severe easterly outbreaks predicted by GFS, later EC...both discarted them and turned to an active atlantic within only few runs. The thing I can't catch is: why is this (still only predicted) pre-spring'ish weather seen as final, but winter'ly conditions are completly out of reach? Isn't it possible to see this swingaround in a couple of days again?

I grabbed in a big pile of sh***t when I told near people (friends, family) AGAIN that there will be freezing cold conditions by mid-Feb,

I learnded that I shouldn't predict something for sure these days... this jet is wibbely-wobbely...

[TEITS]

Only just viewed the GFSP.

Interesting that its only the parallel run that continues to support UKMO/ECM with regards to a wedge over Iceland, jet further S. For whatever reason the GFS Ops seem to differ. Nice to see an increase of sub -10s on the GEFS ensembles from mid Feb.

I agree with Nick S. Gone have the Exorcist type horror charts and instead we have something more similiar to the Hammer House of Horror. The younger members won't have any idea what im on about. The intro music still scares me.

[markw2680]

3 minutes ago, Vikos said:

What makes me so currios is the fact, that a couple of days ago there where severe easterly outbreaks predicted by GFS, later EC...both discarted them and turned to an active atlantic within only few runs. The thing I can't catch is: why is this (still only predicted) pre-spring'ish weather seen as final, but winter'ly conditions are completly out of reach? Isn't it possible to see this swingaround in a couple of days again?

I grabbed in a big pile of sh***t when I told near people (friends, family) AGAIN that there will be freezing cold conditions by mid-Feb,

I learnded that I shouldn't predict something for sure these days... this jet is wibbely-wobbely...

Mate from the start of the winter Iv been telling family members about the really good looking background signals for a cold winter and possibly quite a bit of snow and so far that hasn’t happened and I look like a complete muppet. This winter so far has been a very long chase from the start and I’m pretty much ready to give up and start chasing thunderstorms again.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Mate from the start of the winter Iv been telling family members about the really good looking background signals for a cold winter and possibly quite a bit of snow and so far that hasn’t happened and I look like a complete muppet. This winter so far has been a very long chase from the start and I’m pretty much ready to give up and start chasing thunderstorms again.

I've been doing likewise since backend of December, to the point the local authorities are asking why there is such a short fall of bread and salt in the shops! And guess who there pointing the finger at! I'm praying we see a big shift this month otherwise my credentials are shot already, which would be a shame as I'm only just starting out