Cold hunt - models and chat

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Like I said yesterday. Models need to get a grip with events across the pond. Give it a few more days and we could be counting down to a very different outcome than shown give it time .Just my feeling and reading of the models last 5 years you start to learn about little differences you see. Maybe we will not get an Easterly this year but I'm sure we will get something very cold by the end of this month. more northerly than easterly I suggest maybe N.E just watch for the heights building north in the next 3/4 days. Winters not over by a long shot. I maybe 100% long but I'm learning and that's my take today.

[edinburgh_1992]

A lot more uncertainty on the 18 run. GFS 12 had almost all members above average

[Don]

1 minute ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

A lot more uncertainty on the 18 run. GFS 12 had almost all members above average

Operational among the coldest members, but not quite an outlier?

[Catacol]

Nothing in the weather context over recent days to make me change mind - I say it as I see it, and I think our chances for extreme winter cold now hang by a thread. NWP is swinging ever more mild, a trend that started a week ago now....but the thread that we can hang onto hinges around potential unpredictability of the trop profile given impacts of SSW downwell in the context of an MJO signal that appears to want to circle close to phase 7 for a while yet. While the next 10 days look pretty nailed on as being effectively a strong +NAO pattern I'm not totally convinced that our favourable drivers of the entire winter have given up the ghost entirely. This is not to say confidence has returned....but hope is still present. There is some strange stuff going on. Frictional torques have remained negative for a good while - mountain torque meanwhile has remained largely positive. That's odd for a start. And it is interesting also that GEFS and EPS have both flipped to a pretty mild pattern for mid Feb, and the last EC46 was a big downgrade - but the most recent JMA monthly maintains a very negative look to the NAO. 2 week average here

and further out here

The UK sits top left of these charts - they are spun around to put Japan close to 6 o'clock.

So - long range modelling is not all in agreement and I suspect this is because the impacts of the downwelling hitting the trop this week properly are struggling to be correctly modelled.

So - in summary.....confidence of a very cold month has gone, but torque signals are a bit odd, MJO is perhaps about to get more stuck around phases 6 - 7 - 8 and there is a suspicion that the models are finding it a very difficult pattern to resolve. In that context all bets should probably remain off for a little longer yet. A lot happened in January as forecasts came and went, ending in the weak cold trough last week that amazingly brought more snow than was forecast even 36 hours out... so much can happen in weather terms, especially when we have had a season of so much confusion and so little coherence.

 

[Don]

37 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Nothing in the weather context over recent days to make me change mind - I say it as I see it, and I think our chances for extreme winter cold now hang by a thread. NWP is swinging ever more mild, a trend that started a week ago now....but the thread that we can hang onto hinges around potential unpredictability of the trop profile given impacts of SSW downwell in the context of an MJO signal that appears to want to circle close to phase 7 for a while yet. While the next 10 days look pretty nailed on as being effectively a strong +NAO pattern I'm not totally convinced that our favourable drivers of the entire winter have given up the ghost entirely. This is not to say confidence has returned....but hope is still present. There is some strange stuff going on. Frictional torques have remained negative for a good while - mountain torque meanwhile has remained largely positive. That's odd for a start. And it is interesting also that GEFS and EPS have both flipped to a pretty mild pattern for mid Feb, and the last EC46 was a big downgrade - but the most recent JMA monthly maintains a very negative look to the NAO. 2 week average here

and further out here

The UK sits top left of these charts - they are spun around to put Japan close to 6 o'clock.

So - long range modelling is not all in agreement and I suspect this is because the impacts of the downwelling hitting the trop this week properly are struggling to be correctly modelled.

So - in summary.....confidence of a very cold month has gone, but torque signals are a bit odd, MJO is perhaps about to get more stuck around phases 6 - 7 - 8 and there is a suspicion that the models are finding it a very difficult pattern to resolve. In that context all bets should probably remain off for a little longer yet. A lot happened in January as forecasts came and went, ending in the weak cold trough last week that amazingly brought more snow than was forecast even 36 hours out... so much can happen in weather terms, especially when we have had a season of so much confusion and so little coherence.

 

All sounds very feasible to me.

[FreezingFog]

10 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Peak of the milder air looks to be the 5th slight fall afterwards but nothing overly low the op was a cold outlier at D9

 

Mild outlier on day 8 

Edited February 3, 2019 by FreezingFog

[Penrith Snow]

WARNING!

DO NOT look at this mornings GFS run.

So hideous is it that people will be referring to it in years to come as the worst example of a model run ever, it is the Devil opposite of 'That ECM' and will be used to scare snow and cold fans for decades to come.

It is the model output equivalent of a Snuff Movie, You Have Been Warned.

Andy

Edited February 3, 2019 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

WARNING!

DO NOT look at this mornings GFS run.

So hideous is it that people will be referring to it in years to come as the worst example of a model run ever, it is the Devil opposite of 'That ECM' and will be used to scare snow and cold fans for decades to come.

It is the model output equivalent of a Snuff Movie, You Have Been Warned.

Andy

Looks great to me..an early taste of spring!!..bring it

Edited February 3, 2019 by Polar Maritime
Snipped quote.

[IDO]

Shame we cannot get this sort of pattern in the Summer:

   

That is more in line with my expectations after D10, some sort of attempt at a rise in heights in the Atlantic region. On this run, it pumps the warmer air over the UK so a taste of Spring, but the eventual placement will likely be more to do with the Pacific MJO forcing interference, on the 0z it is not helpful.

The MJO forcing or lack of it can IMO be partly to blame as to why the trop/strat link is not getting us that downwelling signature quickly, rather more a drip-drip feed. A good MJO 7 cycle, maybe mid-month would allow a trop to strat, strat to trop forcing that could be more productive to a cold pattern:

I am more than hopeful that the pattern will change around mid-month from the current cold slack setup, maybe earlier, once the models have fed in the background changes. Where the sine wave upper air pattern sticks is another question?

[Weather-history]

There seems to be a squashing of the low pressure towards the UK next weekend and it seems to the be the area around Greenland that is causing it

ECM mean 0z runs for next Saturday

Lol keep this up and it will to be the south of UK come Saturday.......

Edited February 3, 2019 by Weather-history

[Chesil View]

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

WARNING!

DO NOT look at this mornings GFS run.

So hideous is it that people will be referring to it in years to come as the worst example of a model run ever, it is the Devil opposite of 'That ECM' and will be used to scare snow and cold fans for decades to come.

It is the model output equivalent of a Snuff Movie, You Have Been Warned.

Andy

And as we all know every frame of the GFS verifies out to 384 doesn't it?

Edited February 3, 2019 by Polar Maritime
Edited quote.

[chris55]

ECM not without interest at 120!

complex trough with slider potential.....a small ridge between centres and some trough disruption out west. Could evolve a much colder pattern....one to watch.

[Weather-history]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

There seems to be a squashing of the low pressure towards the UK next weekend and it seems to the be the area around Greenland that is causing it

ECM mean 0z runs for next Saturday

Lol keep this up and it will to be the south of UK come Saturday.......

 

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

ECM not without interest at 120!

complex trough with slider potential.....a small ridge between centres and some trough disruption out west. Could evolve a much colder pattern....one to watch.

The NWP has actually improved slightly this morning.  The UKMO is also better.  

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

There seems to be a squashing of the low pressure towards the UK next weekend and it seems to the be the area around Greenland that is causing it

 

Lol keep this up and it will to be the south of UK come Saturday.......

It maybe worth remembering what happened with the last low and how it trended further and further south and weaker. Would it be that surprising for that to happen again?

There isn't really the cold air aloft to have a repeat so it would likely be cool and wet for most except on the very highest ground.

It's also cool yo see the ensembles. A few have probably record breaking mild. But at this stage doesn't mean anything other than for giggles.

[Chesil View]

19 minutes ago, chris55 said:

ECM not without interest at 120!

complex trough with slider potential.....a small ridge between centres and some trough disruption out west. Could evolve a much colder pattern....one to watch.

Very interesting tweet from Matt Hugo's a few minutes ago.  Apparently 51 ECM ensemble members building wedge of hieghts around Iceland sending low further south around 120hrs. Resulting in colder evolutions going forward.

Edited February 3, 2019 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Disco_Stu]

9 hours ago, Rambo said:

Thankfully thats all conjecture, so dont need to worry until nearer the time (if indeed there is a need to worry)

Well that makes every forecast 'conjecture'. However, looking at all the models and I would expect that temps will be in double figures by mid Feb.

[TEITS]

14 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Very interesting tweet from Matt Hugo's a few minutes ago.  Apparently 51 ECM ensemble members building wedge of hieghts around Iceland sending low further south around 120hrs. Resulting in colder evolutions going forward.

Indeed that trend appeared yesterday and todays UKMO/ECM continue with this.

I fully agree with Catacol with regards to confusion, coherence. Although I use a very different method I am finding predicting the outlook virtually impossible. We should all have a very open mind what to expect for the rest of this month.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended has the low further south than GFS & ECM at t168

[bluearmy]

At the moment the issue is more about the fella coming off the esb day 7 .......currently a very strong push of v low heights but time for that to be adjusted somewhat. eps spreads do have a cluster of lower heights headed se into Europe at day 10 (another diver?) so as others have already wondered, maybe best to keep a watching brief and not make too many definitive statements that you know what will happen over the next four weeks. 

[Methuselah]

Cause for optimism, though not unbridled optimism: post Day 10, the models are seldom if ever correct...

My #1 preference is for a Beast to appear; #2 is for 18C. I guess we'll get something somewhere in between!

[bluearmy]

Tbh, the gfs AO/NAO and gefs AO /NAO forecasts have been pretty desperate recently beyond a week so that indicates how well they must be verifying on our side of the NH 

sadly, the ec/eps have been much better 

[TEITS]

Although the outlook is uncertain im not buying the medium range suggestion of the jet being orientated SW-NE, high pressure to our S, S,lys from Africa!

If I had to take a punt then more likely unsettled with the jet orientated W-E and at times NW-SE with colder NW,lys especially for Scotland. An unsetted outlook more akin to early winter than late winter when blocking is normally more prevelant. Could well be hopelessly wrong though!

[Methuselah]

Netweather meets The Amityville Horror!

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Netweather meets The Amityville Horror!

I wouldn't worry about charts like that, as long as they are not still showing in 3 weeks time, as long as that Atlantic trough is quasi stationary and digging frame by frame, i have seen many an Easterly a week after charts like that, wrt mild to cold spell transitions, there is no correlation very mild and not quite cold enough, in fact the reverse is true sometimes as very mild can mean better WAA events attacking the PV.