Cold hunt - models and chat

[shaky]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

Spot the difference time

 

 

Looks every so slightly further east and north!

[tight isobar]

 

10 minutes ago, shaky said:

Looks every so slightly further east and north!

The main focus point is...as its sweeps into the southwest...then tracks north-eastwards...as it pivots..so 2 it expands..as it reverts on the former trak..thus becomes patchy in nature...

That though after dumping some decent amounts in selected locations...

Edit- and has signs of pep tmoz afternoon, along far southern counties../including factions of the south west

 

Edited January 31, 2019 by tight isobar
Duplicate quote box removed.

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Looks every so slightly further east and north!

About the difference between leeds and Derby say.

The front has pushed into the  Northern Ireland border

[Methuselah]

Kent could do very well, next week: the highly prolific E. C. Cluster will likely open the batting!

[snowfish1]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Kent could do very well, next week: the highly prolific E. C. Cluster will likely open the batting!

What does that mean the cluster will. Likely open the batting I live right on the north east coast herne bay in Kent will I see snow

Edited January 31, 2019 by snowfish1

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, snowfish1 said:

What does that mean the cluster will. Likely open the batting I live right on the north east coast herne bay in Kent will I see snow

Just that, should any of the charts (that peeps have posted) materialise, Kent ought to be in the firing-line...It is, though, all conjecture, just now.

[kold weather]

Both the ECM and GFSp hold interest down the line, though for different reasons obviously. Icon isn't a million miles removed from ECM either. 

Once this snow has gone through today I will start to pay a keener interest in the longer term evolution.

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please leave the now-casting/who's going to get snow and radar watching to the regionals or the cold spell thread which is dedicated to this event here..

Thank you, And back the Model Output related discussion.

Edited January 31, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[Summer Sun]

Still fairly unsettled from UKMO at t168 with some precipitation still around after an unsettled Wednesday

 

[Luke Best]

17 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Can we please leave the now-casting/who's going to get snow and radar watching to the regionals or the cold spell thread which is dedicated to this event.

Thank you, And back the Model Output related discussion.

Please can you provide a link to the dedicated cold spell thread?  TIA.

Edited January 31, 2019 by Polar Maritime
Added link above ?

[Purga]

ECM @240hrs

Can we take any more of this?

 

[Yarmy]

ICON 6z would also go on to produce a Scandi High if it went beyond T120:

Another one to add to the EC Cluster. Let's hope it ends up a clusterbomb rather than a clusterf***.

[Sky Full]

Looking beyond today's event towards the 'end of winter' the CFS is throwing up a whole series of humdinger charts with the emphasis very much on repeated easterlies:

  

  

  

  

  

These are all cold or very cold  charts for the UK.  This is looking into the far reaches of FI its true, but the pattern keeps showing up almost every week and if even one of those charts verifies there will be some very happy people in here!   The CFS is meant to look for trends I believe, and it is certainly pushing this trend today....  Will we end up with a repeat of March 2018?  Too soon to know for sure but there is something in the air....

 

[Purga]

GFSP 0z FI

Ext EPS / GLOSEA not giving up either btw

Edited January 31, 2019 by Purga

[gottolovethisweather]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

 

The main focus point is...as its sweeps into the southwest...then tracks north-eastwards...as it pivots..so 2 it expands..as it reverts on the former trak..thus becomes patchy in nature...

That though after dumping some decent amounts in selected locations...

Edit- and has signs of pep tmoz afternoon, along far southern counties../including factions of the south west

 

Yes, I think Hampshire, Essex and Sussex could do particularly well out of this, several inches of cover perhaps. I'm expecting maybe a couple of inches IMBY. The next 36 hours or so is an exciting watch period, as may well be Sunday.

Edited January 31, 2019 by gottolovethisweather

[fromey]

2 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Yes, I think Hampshire, Essex and Sussex could do particularly well out of this, several inches of cover perhaps. I'm expecting maybe a couple of inches IMBY. The next 36 hours or so is an exciting watch period, as may well be Sunday.

I keep hearing Sunday being mentioned, can you put any more meat on the bones so to speak?

[gottolovethisweather]

3 minutes ago, fromey said:

I keep hearing Sunday being mentioned, can you put any more meat on the bones so to speak?

Only going on what I heard on TV, a front is invading us from the west I believe, aka the start of the currently forecast milder/near average blip. Think rain, sleet and snow mix as per today and tomorrow.

Edited January 31, 2019 by gottolovethisweather

[MATTWOLVES 3]

37 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Looking beyond today's event towards the 'end of winter' the CFS is throwing up a whole series of humdinger charts with the emphasis very much on repeated easterlies:

  

  

  

  

  

These are all cold or very cold  charts for the UK.  This is looking into the far reaches of FI its true, but the pattern keeps showing up almost every week and if even one of those charts verifies there will be some very happy people in here!   The CFS is meant to look for trends I believe, and it is certainly pushing this trend today....  Will we end up with a repeat of March 2018?  Too soon to know for sure but there is something in the air....

 

Good call, I've been following the CFS myself, some interesting signs, even though some folk think reading the tea bags gives you a more accurate prediction!!

Edited January 31, 2019 by Mattwolves

[SMU]

Superb 06z ICON

[gottolovethisweather]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Superb 06z ICON

Bang on where FI begins, will it be a case of westerlies or easterlies by the end of next week? We'll find out in a few runs time I guess.

[Summer Sun]

00z ECM a cold outlier around t192

[Deep Snow please]

33 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Looking beyond today's event towards the 'end of winter' the CFS is throwing up a whole series of humdinger charts with the emphasis very much on repeated easterlies:

These are all cold or very cold  charts for the UK.  This is looking into the far reaches of FI its true, but the pattern keeps showing up almost every week and if even one of those charts verifies there will be some very happy people in here!   The CFS is meant to look for trends I believe, and it is certainly pushing this trend today....  Will we end up with a repeat of March 2018?  Too soon to know for sure but there is something in the air....

  

Images clipped for sanity of readers.

 

Has anyone actually done an analysis of CFS "trends" and whether they even remotely seem to indicate anything approaching a accurate forecast, especially in volatile situations such as this? In essence, is there any reason to be hopeful more than hope from CFS patterns?

[Deep Snow please]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

00z ECM a cold outlier around t192

Dammit. So the hunt continues.

[TEITS]

3 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Dammit. So the hunt continues.

Or a trend setter!

Seagulls have been spotted today in Peterborough for the first time this winter!

[Rayth]

4 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Dammit. So the hunt continues.

Less so further north