Cold hunt - models and chat

[ICE COLD]

Allllllll whats going on here people . All I’m thinking is EC clusters ???

[MR EXTREMES]

Now that is a Scandinavian block and ECM normally sniffs out Scandinavian heights better than most of the models it also pretty close with the ukmo up to 144 hr

[tight isobar]

Upcoming snow event...tonight/tmoz..

Sweetspots= london into home counties- arming into mid southern wales...

Some impactual accums in these areas.

Those would be a pretty solid punt now.

Edited January 31, 2019 by tight isobar

[Chesil View]

With all eyes looking southwest for today's snow. The ECM sneaks an easterly in on the quiet.

[ICE COLD]

Oh yes sir look at that cold pool waiting to come in . Happy morning from the ECM . 

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

192 and 216 on the ECM are looking superb!  Huge cold pool heading our way... hopefully there again on the 12z's?  

 

Removed your images to avoid quotescrollitis but yesterday's 00z was similarly mouthwatering in its later stages. Just saying...

[Ice Day]

I think the common term utilised on occasions such as this is 'BANK'

 

[Seasonality]

I think I just let out a bit of wee!

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Oh yes sir look at that cold pool waiting to come in . Happy morning from the ECM . 

We’ve chased all winter, may as well have another go great looking run. Just one this season please

[Nick F]

Just when some were saying winters over because the Met Office 6-30 dayer signal for an Easterly has decreased the EC teases us with an easterly at the end of the run, though it has been hinting at Scandinavia height and pressure rises at the back end of recent high res or in extended recently, Don’t throw the towel in just yet, MJO 6-7 phase lag coming through supports retrograding wave pattern and Scandinavia height rises + Siberian high extension from SSW downwell supports this in theory, it’s whether the Canadian TPV toppling out over Atlantic next week allows high to back west enough, which is a big ask unfortunately.

[SMU]

We shouldnt be surprised at the ECM-

Dont forget the plucky ICON 00z

Whilst minimally posting in here at the moment- Yesterday was seen as the first signpost to an Easterly- the low pressure diving south & some sort of vertical height profile in the atlantic should be all the signs we need...

Edited January 31, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Seasonality]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

We shouldnt be surprised at the ECM-

Dont forget the plucky ICON 00z

Whilst minimally posting in here at the moment- Yesterday was seen as the first signpost to an Easterly- the low pressure diving south & some sort of vertical height profile in the atlantic should be all the signs we need...

Have you picked up the towel Steve 

[winterof79]

Spot the difference time

 

 

[SMU]

6 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Have you picked up the towel Steve 

Lol - Im bending over to retrieve it...

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lol - Im bending over to retrieve it...

Leave it there until t72

[Harsh Climate]

ECM is a peach this morning, just wish it had more support.

Good luck for those in the south for snow today, I'm hopefull those in the north might get a feed of snow showers from the east overnight. And fair play steve you called out just how far south the models would correct the northern extent of todays precipitation a long way out, even though fair few big hitters was stubborn to do so.

Edited January 31, 2019 by Harsh Climate

[Harsh Climate]

23 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Spot the difference time

 

 

Doesn't seem like anything to spot lol

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Doesn't seem like anything to spot lol

Ones 9 am other 7am and further up ireland

[booferking]

56 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Now that is a Scandinavian block and ECM normally sniffs out Scandinavian heights better than most of the models it also pretty close with the ukmo up to 144 hr

GFS first model to pick it up yesterday if it verifies GFS is the king.

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Ones 9 am other 7am and further up ireland

The northern extent is further north. But the heavy meaningful precipitation is behind on 7am chart and will likely be exactly the same as the 9am chart come 9am.

[That ECM]

7 minutes ago, booferking said:

GFS first model to pick it up yesterday if it verifies GFS is the king.

Looking through the gefs, I would say there is 5/6 that have a similar theme as ecm. Let’s hope this grows over the next two runs prior to the next ecm.

[bluearmy]

The ec op is a cluster but not more than that at the moment 

the control ridges in scandi but not in the same way as the op - end result is a uk high which eventually retrogresses to greeny as per the anomaly’s we saw  across the extended gefs yesterday 

Edited January 31, 2019 by bluearmy

[Yarmy]

ECM has a trigger low dropping through the North Sea at T120 similar to the one the GFS 6z had yesterday (albeit at a different time).

Unlikely to be modelled like that again at this range, but if the Control achieves the scandi high via a different route as BA says, then there is more than one opportunity?

[TEITS]

Very pleased with todays trend because its what I thought may happen several days ago. The irony is the Met O have been predicting an E,ly for such a long time and even last night I watched a Met O video on Youtube and Alex Deakin said "No sign of an E,ly". I wonder what he/they think today??

This isn't just the ECM because the Icon is now heading in that direction.

Still I shall keep my feel on the ground as history tells me to do so when it comes to an E,ly.

 

 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

ECM has a trigger low dropping through the North Sea at T120 similar to the one the GFS 6z had yesterday (albeit at a different time).

Unlikely to be modelled like that again at this range, but if the Control achieves the scandi high via a different route as BA says, then there is more than one opportunity?

The control has been scandi high for a while ..... today’s run is rather more sceuro and then nw Euro than pure scandi ....typical !