Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Anyone up for a hunt for spring!!!! Seriously if this comes off I won't ever look at a model again, well, not a weather one anyway!

cfs-0-492.png

Spring????

Check the sourcing...

That WOULDNT feel like spring!!!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Anyone up for a hunt for spring!!!! Seriously if this comes off I won't ever look at a model again, well, not a weather one anyway!

cfs-0-492.png

That's the cfs model, youmight as well make your own prediction, better chance of getting it correct

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
32 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Interesting fax charts for T36hrs and T48hrs.

The occlusion gets to London and grinds to a halt.

The western end starts heading se and it’s possible that parts who saw snow to rain then see a change back to snow before the occlusion finally clears se.

Snow amounts could be very good in areas which stay close enough to the occlusion on its northern flank throughout that timeframe .

Voila Nick

19020106_3012.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Amber warning for Mid Wales methinks 9 hours of snow 

19013118_3012.gif

19020109_3012.gif

Edited by winterof79
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Spring????

Check the sourcing...

That WOULDNT feel like spring!!!

My point being as spring approaches just watch the pattern change 

 

9 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Spring????

Check the sourcing...

That WOULDNT feel like spring!!!

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Just now, Astral Goat Juice said:

Looks like a great oppor-tuna-ty to me. 

Oh for God's hake!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
36 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

What would that mean for London exactly? Snow or will their be any rain?

Looks good for London I think

Yes certainly. The occlusion does grind to a halt over London then will eventually move back se.

The coldest dew points will be on the northern flank of the occlusion . Even at this stage there is room for small changes re the occlusion .

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Something that’s troubled me all winter that I need to get off my chest

 

It’s spelt SNOW ❄️

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

So as far as tomorrow is concerned, I think that's it for major changes now. Generally, northern extent in a line London to Birmingham and carry on to North Wales, but possibly slightly south of that, and the other question is where it becomes more marginal on the coast towards the south west. Inside that zone, you will need a sledge, outside that zone, not tomorrow but don't rule out surprises over the next few days - snow is like that

EDIT - possibly getting slightly north of Birmingham overnight (just had a better look!) but not a huge fall even if it does. 

Edited by Man With Beard
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
25 minutes ago, shaky said:

Nick one question with that band that far south why does euro4 break out another seperate band over the midlands?is that a trough?

That’s a bit strange . Not sure!  The UKMO fax chart doesn’t show anything .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
9 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Yep.

Looks a bit dud darn sarf. Euro4 is usually spot on at this range. It's been quite impressive lately especially with today's snow up North. 

Midlands and Wales sweet spots.

Yes and the Northern extent is and won't be settled until it moves up the country hence the Amber warning cover parts or south and west Yorkshire. Not confident at all though 

19020103_2_3012.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM continues the trend to something a bit less cold as we go through next week. It'll probably be mid week before the milder air gets to all parts

ECMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.90b96a5a86961e9077fc9100c12d4e7e.pngECMOPEU12_144_2.thumb.png.59f9d470cc09c4618875c63e6e239b58.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Ecm 12z lining up huge scandi block !!??

ECH1-144 (1).gif

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ecm 12z lining up huge scandi block !!??

ECH1-144 (1).gif

Yes I was wondering about that too, here T168 chart

image.thumb.jpg.4b812a6519742bb5dd9c52ebc8e2dc6e.jpg

Might not align perfectly to start with but good to see in reasonably reliable timeframe.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
9 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ecm 12z lining up huge scandi block !!??

ECH1-144 (1).gif

Yuk

 

ECH1-168.gif

Hang on I'll wait a frame......

Edited by winterof79
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Meto forecast radar for the snow event...

image.thumb.png.9d530951c1f20a385b8ebefa5a4154d6.png  image.thumb.png.7dd8e8aa13456af80c433b72e7faad03.pngimage.thumb.png.b6c45fdfc4f8947a918b02eca54050b4.pngimage.thumb.png.fdfc5137ffd4e4ab736971310890864c.pngimage.thumb.png.ad102de5eb78a28e058b6994b5a7dbd2.pngimage.thumb.png.e63e36f142db7d0fa8f58ea4295696af.png  

The swingometers are firming up on a mild /anticyclonic outlook unfortunately. Things may stay cold if we get the high moving over us or to the north like with P4.

image.thumb.png.eb2311f9dc0b92afc33c0b1ccf446a33.pngimage.thumb.png.ef759e380f9e7e0ec5111b20e2492a22.png 

So we move the focus further out yet again. The swingometers now show a mixed picture  but little in the way of really cold runs but that can change rather quickly. P4 is what we want to look for though as that leads to a cold easterly further down the line.

image.thumb.png.e9ab37945cac94464609eb28cd163226.pngimage.thumb.png.a279a6e6ab41ef23c7ff45f4b01be780.png 

Globally the temperature anomaly is rather strange as the US shows a really strong La Nina pattern during a weak El Nino. With notable warmth across the whole eastern North American coast we should see the Atlantic quieten down but we need to also get rid of the Euroslug. Please can we have a Scandi high to advect that Siberian cold westwards!

image.thumb.png.82d667ada8a2bdb2c33a73d58b31338e.png

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Maybe something a bit more typical for a UK winter next week with an alternating pattern between some cooler and milder days

12z ECM

ECMOPEU12_120_2.thumb.png.03d2377719fe9375c85a84596f5c42c4.pngECMOPEU12_144_2.thumb.png.e0fdb43344801a7e0f77ec6cd15530f6.png

ECMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.33eadf3bb8e116db30d73b7c099579fa.pngECMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.07bc90141bd6442db2097407e7f64507.png

ECMOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.da910f1fab27387401478d545cd4499b.png

Edited by Summer Sun
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

I love a pun as much as the next person, but it's getting disruptive so please cease and desist.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

ECM1-216 (2).gif

Looks better on the European gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Have to be honest here but this winter has been full of promise with all the background signals in the world and whilst it’s still got a month maybe 2 if you count March to run it’s just very tiring now, yeah it will be great if we get the elusive easterly in the next couple of weeks but just seems to be hinting at it all the time only for the signal to disappear again. I for one will soon be looking forward to summer as it’s just been full of hope and garden paths. Just my opinion though

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    More rain on the way: Storm Nelson brings gales Thursday, but rain and wind easing for Easter

    Spells of rain or showers with sunshine in between affecting most areas today, snow over northern hills. Storm Nelson arrives tomorrow, bringing gales to southern coasts and windy elsewhere with further showers. Showers and wind easing somewhat into the Easter Weekend. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-27 09:35:27 Valid: 27/03/2024 0900 - 28/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 27 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...