Cold hunt - models and chat

[Deep Snow please]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Some disruption at long last.

So close to the run we're all looking though. Given how easily these lines can shift a few hundred miles as they get close this is seriously promising.

[frosty ground]

O look the PPN starts to turn wintry on the very highest peaks of wales and england

[Yarmy]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Some disruption at long last.

Yep, ridge should build behind it and we should get a second go at an easterly.

[nick sussex]

Not the favourable trigger shortwave outcome on either the GFS or UKMO so any easterly even if it does appear will be delayed .

The latter though does on first look have a chance of further snow between day 4 and 5 as some other shortwave energy moves se through the UK.

 

Edited January 30, 2019 by nick sussex

[P-M]

10 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

I think potential all time record low minima and Maxima probably count as once in a generation!

Just as interesting is that parts of Minnesota could be looking at record lows Wednesday/Thursday and record highs at the weekend. Now that's a rollercoaster!

I had this the other night when I was saying about the snowstorms they had in December.  It may be a "large" country but minus 70 is not something usual.  The US really is seeing extreme winter weather and with tens of millions of people affected it's pretty spectacular.  The area affected is pretty large and to be fair all I can do is look and want some of it!

Signals on the runs of a change afoot?  Let's hope so and hopefully not just 10+ days away.

[warrenb]

I can still see this going to the wire next week. Just need a slight tilt in the jet and trough disruption as shown on the GEM is quite possible.

[winterof79]

15 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

So close to the run we're all looking though. Given how easily these lines can shift a few hundred miles as they get close this is seriously promising.

Probably correct south

[Weathizard]

2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

I can still see this going to the wire next week. Just need a slight tilt in the jet and trough disruption as shown on the GEM is quite possible.

GEM is only ever right when it shows a Bartlett, never comes good when you want it too  

[Deep Snow please]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Probably correct south

Knowing our luck it'll end up over France and the Scandi high will push it there using the UK.

[cheeky_monkey]

28 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

I think potential all time record low minima and Maxima probably count as once in a generation!

Just as interesting is that parts of Minnesota could be looking at record lows Wednesday/Thursday and record highs at the weekend. Now that's a rollercoaster!

in the US/Canada they often use a daily record as a reference to cold and warm records..so can be misleading

[ICE COLD]

What really gets on my titts is why are these stonking charts always at day 16 ? They hardly ever come off , so why do they show them so often ? 

[The Beast From The East]

19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not the favourable trigger shortwave outcome on either the GFS or UKMO so any easterly even if it does appear will be delayed .

The latter though does on first look have a chance of further snow between day 4 and 5 as some other shortwave energy moves se through the UK.

 

Bloody shortwave luck... 

We've been waiting since end of December so I guess another delay in the Easterly wont harm lol

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

Bloody shortwave luck... 

We've been waiting since end of December so I guess another delay in the Easterly wont harm lol

It might still appear !  Not sure in which month though !

[Mike Poole]

Some promise in the models today of getting some blocking close by, GFS 6z was good, 12z not as clean but not bad.  GEM pick of the bunch so far at T240:

I remain reasonably optimistic for a cold spell in February - at the moment.

 

[WhiteFox]

27 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

in the US/Canada they often use a daily record as a reference to cold and warm records..so can be misleading

No, definitely all time low records. I was reading the NWS discussion for IL and MN earlier. The max could be daily record though.

 

Addit: Here

 

"all ingredients in place for an extremely and likely record cold temperature night. Continue forecast lows in the -20s and -30s, with the coldest values in north central Illinois and exposed, favored areas. Rockford will likely drop to colder than what they are this morning, and so confidence in a record all-time low is increasing there. Chicago looks to be very close to reaching their record and have undercut guidance slightly with a low right at all-time record level."

Edited January 30, 2019 by WhiteFox
Added info

[winterof79]

If ECM gets anywhere near this from GEM  I remain interested in the medium term after it's positive end on the 00Z

Please let's not waste a 1055mb + Siberian high with a punch drunk PV

GFS Control and 12z mean

 

Edited January 30, 2019 by winterof79

[nick sussex]

Interesting fax charts for T36hrs and T48hrs.

The occlusion gets to London and grinds to a halt.

The western end starts heading se and it’s possible that parts who saw snow to rain then see a change back to snow before the occlusion finally clears se.

Snow amounts could be very good in areas which stay close enough to the occlusion on its northern flank throughout that timeframe .

[SLEETY]

That's the charts the ec46 said we should be under now, I'm talking about the end of the gfs run, so hopefully that will run down to time 0,so  just two weeks away from the very cold air from the NE OR E that has been in extended forecasts for weeks and weeks

[Weathizard]

I know the ensembles have been useless all winter and if 1% of cherry picked charts came to fruition we’d have been buried by now but just to show this kind of thing is still on the table.. look at this!

[Timmytour]

37 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

What really gets on my titts is why are these stonking charts always at day 16 ? They hardly ever come off , so why do they show them so often ? 

You've got to allow for the built-in bias of GFS in low resolution to give us an easterly in winter

[Updated_Weather]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Interesting fax charts for T36hrs and T48hrs.

The occlusion gets to London and grinds to a halt.

The western end starts heading se and it’s possible that parts who saw snow to rain then see a change back to snow before the occlusion finally clears se.

Snow amounts could be very good in areas which stay close enough to the occlusion on its northern flank throughout that timeframe .

What would that mean for London exactly? Snow or will their be any rain?

Looks good for London I think

[winterof79]

20 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

What would that mean for London exactly? Snow or will their be any rain?

Looks good for London I think

Grrrrr....Well give you South Westerners and Southerners a shout when spring arrives so it can melt the mountainsj you'll be under.....enjoy it we get our fair share up here 

Edited January 30, 2019 by winterof79

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I know the ensembles have been useless all winter and if 1% of cherry picked charts came to fruition we’d have been buried by now but just to show this kind of thing is still on the table.. look at this!

you said it …………………….. ens remain all over the place with little evidence that they have sniffed out where we are headed …..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Anyone up for a hunt for spring!!!! Seriously if this comes off I won't ever look at a model again, well, not a weather one anyway!

[shaky]

27 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Interesting fax charts for T36hrs and T48hrs.

The occlusion gets to London and grinds to a halt.

The western end starts heading se and it’s possible that parts who saw snow to rain then see a change back to snow before the occlusion finally clears se.

Snow amounts could be very good in areas which stay close enough to the occlusion on its northern flank throughout that timeframe .

Nick one question with that band that far south why does euro4 break out another seperate band over the midlands?is that a trough?