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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

HANG ON - HANG ON!  -  cold pool building in situ with that potentially trigger shortwave over Scandi!!!

image.thumb.png.2b93eb75727ac0d85f75dc7c3f0a2ed3.png

 

MET thinking  not so far away now.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

I’ve been sitting hear watching quietly. Is there gonna be an easterly ?? Charts getting very interesting and it’s not FI. ??

2F04A22C-54D3-4A5A-9E92-1DE14B28CD31.png

E7603012-A98E-4503-93C7-C59F24FF87D2.png

Well I'm still putting my faith in Those Who Cannot Be Named. And, hopefully (now the short-rangers seem to be 'smelling the coffee'!) my faith is about to be rewarded...?

Usual caveat (don't measure your snow until after it's fallen) applies!

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Trigger low moving West through Europe.. here comes the Easterly!

LOW.thumb.png.b6fe0dc6bd945089ab1247bd6c7da7d2.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Trigger low moving West through Europe.. here comes the Easterly!

LOW.thumb.png.b6fe0dc6bd945089ab1247bd6c7da7d2.png

Now this is an awesome chart - plenty of snow about to pile in

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Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Good morning Mr Downwelling...….I've been expecting you

Tell him he's late while you're at it!

Edited by Drifter
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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

When you look at the 00z runs and think of throwing the towel in, and along comes the 06z........ I don't think anyone is going anywhere for now.... Gripping stuff this model watching. You just can't tear yourself away.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
23 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

Been waaaay too busy with work these past 7 days to have time to look at the models (how do people find so much time to be on here, morning, noon and night??? lol); clearly I haven't missed anything. While we are currently experiencing a standard fayre winter spell of colder than average weather with some frost and wintry showers, it certainly isn't the SSW winter nirvana that many were predicting. And now it looks like the 850 uppers will be on the rise (just look at those toasty GEFS for February) and you really have to ask the question, when do the diehards finally admit defeat and throw the towel in? 

It has been a winter off day 10 promise all the way, and surely it's just straw clutching now. None of us have any idea what later February will bring but after the SSW bust, maybe it's time to walk out of the casino.

Exquisite timing. :oldsmile:

gfsnh-0-192.png?6

 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I've not been paying too much attention to the longer range but certainly that's an interesting 06z. It does feel like we are moving into one of those classic slowly changing trends, each run shifts it just a little more favourable for us.

As I think a few of us said recently if an easterly can flip to mild within 144hrs, there is no reason why the opposite can't happen, less likely perhaps, but more than possible.

Remember my 5-10th call about some form of HLB, and BA talking about a Scandi high...

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

Feb 2018 reloaded patterns?

archivesnh-2018-2-5-0-0.pnggfsnh-0-222.png?6

Edited by Vikos
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

When you look at the 00z runs and think of throwing the towel in, and along comes the 06z........ I don't think anyone is going anywhere for now.... Gripping stuff this model watching. You just can't tear yourself away.

To be fair ECM gave us a big nudge

image.thumb.png.ba222dfd2938da38ff42c8153a7fc021.png

GFS

image.thumb.png.6b2245e33d6127d3832ae3865e9c453d.png

UKMO has trigger low

image.thumb.png.03602d1b6b2de948b1cae9fa3ae4a990.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The wedge of heights from the Atlantic joining forces with the Siberian High is the de facto block:

gfseu-0-234.thumb.png.af69e9ad90044139773d14921a33e63c.png

The Siberian High opening the doorway to Arctic type cold!

Just need to see these types of charts on the 0z and 12z as the 06z has lately been the most progressive with HLB'ing, and is the worst of the runs verification wise.

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

6z is what I envisioned a few days ago but dropped as the ECM and GFS starting looking less favourable. Not saying it's right or anything but the signs for a Scandi ridge have been evident on the eps and gefs. 

Easterlies are strange beasts they can crop at D7 the disappear at D4 caution is advised but writing off winter may not be the best.

 

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Posted
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

UKMO has trigger low

image.thumb.png.03602d1b6b2de948b1cae9fa3ae4a990.png

What is a 'trigger low'?

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
2 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

What is a 'trigger low'?

It's a term that was I believe made up on this forum.

It describes an area of low pressure that tracks just right to open up the flood gates to much colder air

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
4 minutes ago, IDO said:

The wedge of heights from the Atlantic joining forces with the Siberian High is the de facto block:

gfseu-0-234.thumb.png.af69e9ad90044139773d14921a33e63c.png

The Siberian High opening the doorway to Arctic type cold!

Just need to see these types of charts on the 0z and 12z as the 06z has lately been the most progressive with HLB'ing, and is the worst of the runs verification wise.

It is, but not by a huge amount:

cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

But of course the whole evolution depends on the low over Scotland at T120 tracking down the North Sea and into Europe:

gfs-0-120.png?6

 

On the 0z, it a was much weaker affair and tracked NE into the Norwegian sea. Be interesting to see what the para does at the same time.

 

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