Cold hunt - models and chat

[SMU]

The GFS tics another shift of around 50 miles south on Thurs Eve, so with each passing run the stall out point looks like being just East of London- ATM its Norfolk but theres more gas in the tanks im afraid... note the change highlighted in the 850s position on Friday 1pm

18z first

 FWIW I havent posted in here much for a few days- however the day 6/ day 7 atlantic profiles look to flat to me

Expext upgrades for day 5/6 & 7 over the next 24-48 hours for a better Atlantic high & diving jet

Edited January 30, 2019 by Steve Murr

[festivalking]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The GFS tics another shift of around 50 miles south on Thurs Eve, so with each passing run the stall out point looks like being just East of London- ATM its Norfolk but theres more gas in the tanks im afraid... note the change highlighted in the 850s position on Friday 1pm

18z first

 FWIW I havent posted in here much for a few days- however the day 6/ day 7 atlantic profiles look to flat to me

Expext upgrades for day 5/6 & 7 over the next 24-48 hours for a better Atlantic high & diving jet

The south west moors are coming in to play more and more at this rate

[January Snowstorm]

Ukmo looks a good run for Southern Ireland. Ppn could remain as snow on Thursday

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS is going to have a go at an E'ly down the line here

UKMO also very interesting at 144

That Atlantic troughing will be pincered from both sides- pressure rises over Greenland between days 5 and 6

Edited January 30, 2019 by CreweCold

[Deep Snow please]

6 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

GFSp furtherst south yet. Going to be a south coast event at this rate ! 

I know this often gets asked half-jokingly but in all seriousness, given how often we see events like this correct southwards where snow is concerned, do they not re-programme the models to take account of such an evident northward starting bias? It seems like it would improve accuracy to do so? 

[Cheshire Freeze]

17 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

I know this often gets asked half-jokingly but in all seriousness, given how often we see events like this correct southwards where snow is concerned, do they not re-programme the models to take account of such an evident northward starting bias? It seems like it would improve accuracy to do so? 

Even if you added bias correction into the mix, it'd still edge S on subsequent runs. The models correct as new initialising data is fed into them.

[KTtom]

Blimey, quiet this morning...not too much on offer mid to long term...ukmo, illustrates the latest frustration for the UK as potentially our last chance of a potent easterly mid month, the arctic high , as mentioned yesterday is stopped in it's tracks and tilted unfavourable by the low pressure system hitting our shores tomorrow...as it happens I'm off to Finland next week, wonder if I can get a good dollop of snow from the same system 4 days apart!

 

[northwestsnow]

Obv there is a lot of focus for thur but look at UKMO 144, does that look loaded with potential ?

[swfc]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Obv there is a lot of focus for thur but look at UKMO 144, does that look loaded with potential ?

It looks pretty good to me NW.only problem I have is were nearly in Feb and haven't moved on from early December!!!

[Mucka]

ECM finally smelling the coffee GFS has been brewing for some time.

[Seasonality]

[Seasonality]

52 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Obv there is a lot of focus for thur but look at UKMO 144, does that look loaded with potential ?

Same general direction of travel as ecm I reckon. Europe poised to be flooded with cold from the East.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Same general direction of travel as ecm I reckon. Europe poised to be flooded with cold from the East.

We’ve not left yet .............

[feb1991blizzard]

I like the direction of travel between 216 and 240 on the eps mean.

[kold weather]

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Even if you added bias correction into the mix, it'd still edge S on subsequent runs. The models correct as new initialising data is fed into them.

That shows why the Human element is essential in forecasting still. Steve M, myself and a few others have been saying these systems correct south 8/10 times and sure enough, that has happened.

[mountain shadow]

Any 'potential ' remains in the plus ten time frame though. 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the extended Gfs 00z operational, mid Feb could be interesting! 

[nick sussex]

Shortwave drama !

Around day 5 is where that begins . That needs to go se not ne and eject cleanly that will allow some ridging to back west over the top and hold up the upstream troughing from advancing too far east.

The ECM op once again  from the 4th February becomes the mildest solution for several days.

The ensembles aren’t bullish upto day ten about backing deeper cold west but the earlier timeframe is important because it helps to set up a more favourable start point to get that after that point .

 

[Seasonality]

56 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We’ve not left yet .............

Ha ha, no Brexit joke intended in my original post I promise!

[Seasonality]

14 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Oh look. Mountain Shadow with the usual morning WUM. (Wind Up Merchant). I'm not sure you understand and why you are looking in the future for 'Potential', we have 3" of snow here right now, and it's still snowing. We have Thursday where it WILL snow in places. Its cold all week, beyond that, nobody knows, not you, not the models, not tinybill, why people are so fixated on what happens in 10 days time is beyond me. 

 

Well my goaty friend, the reason is in the thread title. For the here and now people tend to use the regional threads, for the 'cold hunt' further afield they use this one. Don't let it wind you up, not worth the stress. Just enjoy the madness of the forum.

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Oh look. Mountain Shadow with the usual morning WUM. (Wind Up Merchant). I'm not sure you understand and why you are looking in the future for 'Potential', we have 3" of snow here right now, and it's still snowing. We have Thursday where it WILL snow in places. Its cold all week, beyond that, nobody knows, not you, not the models, not tinybill, why people are so fixated on what happens in 10 days time is beyond me. 

 

He's talking about real potential, the type of potential that those who cannot be named are still indicating longer term..not the 2cm on low ground potential this week!..ps..not everyone has 3 inches to play with!

[Hammer50]

Call that a snow bomb that was a powder puff lol.

[Newberryone]

15 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Oh look. Mountain Shadow with the usual morning WUM. (Wind Up Merchant). I'm not sure you understand and why you are looking in the future for 'Potential', we have 3" of snow here right now, and it's still snowing. We have Thursday where it WILL snow in places. Its cold all week, beyond that, nobody knows, not you, not the models, not tinybill, why people are so fixated on what happens in 10 days time is beyond me. 

 

Mountain Shadows remark re “10 day potential” is very reasonable considering that’s undeniably been the story of winter ‘18/‘19 so far. While I admit there’s a certain degree of uncertainty beyond the next 3/4 day wintry snap there does seem to be a growing signal for less cold weather to take hold from next Mon onwards with nothing very noteworthy in the pipeline. We can only hope that Feb will produce many more bites of the cherry culminating in something very savory come months end. 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended looks settled for most maybe a bit of patchy precipitation in the far south

[bluearmy]

39 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I like the direction of travel between 216 and 240 on the eps mean.

Heads the way of the gefs in the extended .....getting there but pulling teeth on the way ! 

hopefully it will accelerate