Cold hunt - models and chat

kold weather · January 29, 2019

ECM ensembles have very strong agreement with UKMO/ECM/ICON. Pretty impressive agreement, though the error is to the south, not to the north. That's not to say the north doesn't get any snow on the ensembles, however the main zone on quite a few is from my line Liverpool-Hull. Quite a few are a decent way below that as well.

We will see what the 18z models show, getting close to agreement now.

WINTRY WALES · January 29, 2019

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM ensembles have very strong agreement with UKMO/ECM/ICON. Pretty impressive agreement, though the error is to the south, not to the north. That's not to say the north doesn't get any snow on the ensembles, however the main zone on quite a few is from my line Liverpool-Hull. Quite a few are a decent way below that as well.

We will see what the 18z models show, getting close to agreement now.

Do you mean by that being that the northern limit line is Liverpool-Hull? With the heaviest precip further south?

Frosty. · January 29, 2019

There's no point being in denial about it, next week becomes less cold on the Ecm 12z ensemble mean as was the case with the GEFS 12z mean..my hope is that the less cold phase proves to be short-lived and that the potentially very cold longer term signal will bear fruit as we go further into february!..

In the meantime, enjoy the wintry fun and games this week..there should be some ice..I mean nice surprises.

Methuselah · January 29, 2019

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There's no point being in denial about it, next week becomes less cold on the Ecm 12z ensemble mean as was the case with the GEFS 12z mean..my hope is that the less cold phase proves to be short-lived and that the potentially very cold longer term signal will bear fruit as we go further into february!..

In the meantime, enjoy the wintry fun and games this week..there should be some ice..I mean nice surprises.

A short, sharp spell of mild Atlantic filth would fit well with the opinion of Those Who Cannot Be Named...

MattStoke · January 29, 2019

11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM ensembles have very strong agreement with UKMO/ECM/ICON. Pretty impressive agreement, though the error is to the south, not to the north. That's not to say the north doesn't get any snow on the ensembles, however the main zone on quite a few is from my line Liverpool-Hull. Quite a few are a decent way below that as well.

We will see what the 18z models show, getting close to agreement now.

Not sure what you mean by the error being to the south?

feb1991blizzard · January 29, 2019

16 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/europe/m2_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/europe/m3_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/europe/m6_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/europe/m12_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/europe/m13_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/europe/m18_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/europe/m32_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/europe/m33_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/europe/m37_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/europe/m39_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/europe/m50_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html from the end of the run looking at the Europe / Scandi view - although I would think they are like the GEFS and will change quite a bit from run to run?

Not too bad then although some with poor orientation, but not bad.

kold weather · January 29, 2019

8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Not sure what you mean by the error being to the south?

More ensembles are SOUTH of ECM track than are NORTH of the ECM track (I've given a bit of leeway to the ECM track though).

cheeky_monkey · January 29, 2019

Looks like we might hit the magic -40c which is also -40f

shaky · January 29, 2019

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

More ensembles are SOUTH of ECM track than are NORTH of the ECM track (I've given a bit of leeway to the ECM track though).

So theres more that go even further south than the ecm

ANYWEATHER · January 29, 2019

Evening! Truly unusual weather territory tonight , A weather front coming in from the west and delivering snow , for some shows how cold the northern hemisphere is. ! Thursdays weather look very interesting as this may well be some of the most disruptive snow for the south of the uk since last March....

Spah1 · January 29, 2019

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Aperge snow depth for Thurs night ..

Fylde Coast sweet spot

Kirkcaldy Weather · January 29, 2019

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not too bad then although some with poor orientation, but not bad.

and another quick point - those worrying overly about the position of the PV Greenland / Canada a reminder where it was positioned in the lead up to the beast from the east last year

Sweatyman · January 29, 2019

7 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Looks like we might hit the magic -40c which is also -40f

lucky you

feb1991blizzard · January 29, 2019

2 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

somland / Canada a reminder where it was positioned in the lead up to the beast from the east last year

True but we knew it was about to be destroyed and sent far away by a wave 2 upwelling.

Edited January 29, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

bluearmy · January 29, 2019

The eps spread on 850’s continues to show a cluster supporting the easterly flow days 9/10 .....nothing frigid on the spread but the scandi ridge cluster remains a significant option

Kirkcaldy Weather · January 29, 2019

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

True but we knew it was about to be destroyed and sent far away by a wave 2 upwelling.

yes mate just trying to say that even with the PV in that position it does not always = game over for any colder weather affecting us also the lows that it spawns could end up being sliders should there be enough above average heights to the N / NE to force them under (trust me I am as frustrated as many in here as I have not had any snow this winter either, but I refuse to give up on this winter until there is 0 % hope whatsoever and ATM there is still some hope so on we march and hopefully the cold easterly's march toward us)

Mike Poole · January 29, 2019

As promised, some more detailed thoughts about why I have retrieved my towel, and am now fighting on into February and beyond if necessary!

There was a fair bit of negativity and frustration on here yesterday, justified given the output, and with the time of year it is easy to get sucked into that. But that is not science, it's emotion!

Consider the narrative around the SSW, forget the nonsense earlier about a possible front-loaded winter (mea-culpa!). But from ~15 Dec, it has been all about the SSW, and at that point it was scheduled for 26 Dec, with cold weather starting to make it's presence felt about 10 Jan. The SSW was about a week 'late' and things have been slower ever since, cold weather arriving first 22 Jan - but that is only 12 days late, actually. (It is irrelevant to this discussion that most of us have seen zero snow from any non-SSW related events earlier, we haven't but that can't be laid at the door of the stratosphere science.)

In fact the whole thing has been late at every stage, whether that is judged by people's expectations in here, the op models, the Met Office 16-30 day updates, the ECM46 or seasonal models that we can see which have shown significant high lat blocking in our region in January. But I think the direction of travel is still correct.

Looking at today's op runs in the 10+ day range, all sorts of options are there, many including high lat blocking, no consensus, but compared with a couple of weeks when such blocks were over the opposite side of the northern hemisphere, they appeared in Russia this week, and are now starting to show closer to home (e.g. GEM 12z, but there are others). Models struggling with the uncertainty...and will probably continue to do so for a while.

Finally, the Met Office contingency planners 3 month forecast issued today - see appropriate thread for detail - uses text to describe likely cold and higher precipitation signals in February in particular that could come from a textbook on likely long term response from a SSW. Game's still on folks!

MattStoke · January 29, 2019

ICON very slightly further south on its 18z run.

weirpig · January 29, 2019

Looks like the icon stalls the front in a line from the wash to north Wales

kold weather · January 29, 2019

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

ICON very slightly further south on its 18z run.

Yep, less snow for far south due to slightly higher 850hpa temps, still does turn to snow though even to the coast eventually.

Also, slightly faster on this run as well. Midlands get a lot of snow this run!

MattStoke · January 29, 2019

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yep, less snow for far south due to slightly higher 850hpa temps, still does turn to snow though even to the coast eventually.

Also, slightly faster on this run as well. Midlands get a lot of snow this run!

Not all of the Midlands. Snow line stops just a few miles to my south. Makes me laugh how often that happens.

shaky · January 29, 2019

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yep, less snow for far south due to slightly higher 850hpa temps, still does turn to snow though even to the coast eventually.

Also, slightly faster on this run as well. Midlands get a lot of snow this run!

Yup the whole of the midlands gets a lot!!good slight upgrade!!

swfc · January 29, 2019

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Not all of the Midlands. Snow line stops just a few miles to my south. Makes me laugh how often that happens.

Few miles?

Purga · January 29, 2019

1 hour ago, snefnug said:

They

do, don’t they, but would you really, really want them temps that Chicago get hit with tonight?

Yes!

swfc · January 29, 2019

This low could be 200-miles either way come thurs.stop it guys please!!!

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