Cold hunt - models and chat

[TEITS]

I am sticking with my earlier thoughts with regards to the medium range. Next week is far from resolved and still believe what tonights GEM shows remains a possibility.

Just add a very unpleasant atmosphere on here tonight from some members!

I am very sceptical of these so called "Background signals". However my gripe is with this forecasting method rather than any members who use them and post their forecasts on here.

[Mike Poole]

58 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yep - sharp change of signal. No high lat block with any undercut of impact. Been mulling about this all evening really - the nature of the SSW this year, with it being such a slow process, has thrown semi predictability into chaos. I guess that leaves some gentle optimism that this set of charts may be no more accurate than the last lot, but really we only have the MetO now offering any coherent suggestion of cold and we cannot see their data. I have a feeling they wont take long to alter that 30 day text.

And if @Catacol is losing faith, frankly so am I.  There has to be a point when you cut your losses, all the best scientific evidence has pointed to a substantially cold winter in part, but it is a cold whimper going into Feb.  Yes there are definitely prospects for a cold second half of of Feb.  But I've chased it as far as I can, my focus now is the short term for this week.

Long term, I'll be back for the summer. 

Edit, even JMA has gone over to the Dark Side,  T264

Utter nonsense on that chart over Greenland.  

Edited January 29, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Catacol]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Perhaps but it's shown you can have all background signals pointing towards cold, all models and a massive SSW to boot and still get the forecast completely and utterly wrong. My point was that far too much emphasis has been put on the "background signals" this winter with little to show for it. 

This is meant as no disrespect to the people who study and use that method of forecasting, but it has just as many failures as any other method, it seems

OK - but if we don't try and read the signals where does that leave us? Going nowhere fast. There are some who would prefer just to take the weather as it comes each day by looking out the window. Fair play to them - probably the most sane way of doing it!! But if we are going to have a weather forum where we discuss prospects for developing weather events then we better try and understand the signals or else we are totally wasting our time.

[Don]

Think I might take a break from the models.  The current cold spell could well be as good as it gets this winter.

[kold weather]

18z ECM looks pretty much the same as the 12z UKMO, maybe a touch south. System comes into the south Friday afternoon, turns to snow widely across most southern places away from the coast (still marginal by the coast) then moves inland and slowly weakens. Peak northern extent is again between Liverpool-Hull, as it has been most of the day on ECM.

Peak snowfall rates over the UK of around an inch an hour on the band. Again 2-4 inches in the snow zone. SE Ireland utterly hammered again on this run, as are parts of Wales, figures there between 8-12 inches.

[snowangel32]

2 hours ago, Lampostwatcher said:

looks like the south could nick all the snow 

great run for the us down here 

 

Not really the PPN is much weaker. Also its still got two days to keep going South and could end up in France. But could easily correct North as some esembles show or stay where it is. Really its a guessing game. But the trend seems South but belive me you want it to stop now lol.

[Rocheydub]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

 

18z ECM looks pretty much the same as the 12z

 

Where can one view the 18z ECM please?

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Arron wound me up ........

It winds me up when people spell my name wrong 

In all seriousness, I wasn't trying to wind anyone up...and I agree you only ever comment on what is being shown in the modelling- I cannot fault you on that one. However, it really has been a dire winter- even moreso when you align what we've seen with what perhaps we should have...

[Walsall Wood Snow]

A lot of people thought December might be cold and it wasn't. Then they thought January would be cold and it wasn't. Now a lot of people think February might not be cold, perhaps it actually will be  .

[MATTWOLVES 3]

12 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Where can one view the 18z ECM please?

News to me! Thought ecm only ran 0z and 12z daily 

[Mark Neal.]

16 minutes ago, kold weather said:

18z ECM looks pretty much the same as the 12z UKMO, maybe a touch south. System comes into the south Friday afternoon, turns to snow widely across most southern places away from the coast (still marginal by the coast) then moves inland and slowly weakens. Peak northern extent is again between Liverpool-Hull, as it has been most of the day on ECM.

Peak snowfall rates over the UK of around an inch an hour on the band. Again 2-4 inches in the snow zone. SE Ireland utterly hammered again on this run, as are parts of Wales, figures there between 8-12 inches.

I don't mean to sound IMBY....  But does the snowband extend down to the Home Counties and London... South Midlands get a few inches still? 

[lassie23]

15 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

A lot of people thought December might be cold and it wasn't. Then they thought January would be cold and it wasn't. Now a lot of people think February might not be cold, perhaps it actually will be  .

oh no, it won't 

[Derecho]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Yep - sharp change of signal. No high lat block with any undercut of impact.

Really? A few cold runs still in the 18z ens for example to dismiss the cold prospects outright. Look at the swingometer for February 5th for example.

Really we only have the MetO now offering any coherent suggestion of cold and we cannot see their data. I have a feeling they wont take long to alter that 30 day text.

So the Meto are completely wrong about a time frame that is highly uncertain? They have more data than us to make a call on so I wouldn't dismiss it.

MJO peaks for cold interest in about a week and then will fade away through phase 8 to 1. 

GFS has it stuck in phase 7 for the reliable time range and that is still hugely uncertain.

I think these background signals are important but as I say they are so uncertain and can be easily overwhelmed by things in the North Atlantic. February 2018 had the huge MJO event in early February which undoubtably set the ball in motion which along with the SSW allowed all the jigsaw pieces to fall in the right place, however the MJO is much weaker at the moment to use it as guidance.

However no raging atlantic assault - the SSW has put paid to that prospect for the rest of winter

How can you say that though? Surely if you get a huge cold pool from NE Canada pouring into the North Atlantic than that will serve to fire up some deep lows in the North Atlantic? So how can an SSW stop that? Unless we get a high migrating to Greenland or a Scandi high than that is difficult.

Essentially, our weather is so sensitive to minor changes in the North Atlantic that we cannot be sure how background signals will manifest here. They can give an inkling but I'll stick to the model ensembles and what they sure.

We may get raging westerlies, we may get something cold and blocked. Until a really dominant signal in the model output for our region itself emerges, then nothing can be said with confidence.

This winter the background signals haven't worked so far, they have been rather woeful. If they were so influential,surely this SSW would be leading to something much more blocked rather than just no Atlantic assault. I know this week doesn't look good for you in the far SW but I wouldn't be so gloomy yet..., its still in the open regardless of background signals.

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[MATTWOLVES 3]

One thing that really gets my goat up on here is the sheer amount of posters who see a bad run or 2, or there forecasts of snowmageddon not looking likely, simply say...... That's me finished, see you next year, that's winter over this year, told ya so, ec 46 going the wrong way, next it will be glosea, bla bla bla bla, last year it was beast coming to late, sun to high in sky, ice day impossible, for godsake its like watching repeat episodes of elderado,

[SLEETY]

Can't believe some posters have giving up on this winter  even the more knowledgeable because ec46 has changed, it's been mostly wrong for this winter in  that HLB hasn't occurred like it said but it got the negative temp anomoly correct for back end of Jan. 

. Despite the fact  UKMO are still going for a very cold spell towards mid feb, a lot of posters are abandoning ship because it seems only Ec46 matters, OK BYE then see you next winter

[Bricriu]

8 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Can't believe some posters have giving up on this winter  even the more knowledgeable because ec46 has changed, it's been mostly wrong for this winter in  that HLB hasn't occurred like it said but it got the negative temp anomoly correct for back end of Jan. 

. Despite the fact  UKMO are still going for a very cold spell towards mid feb, a lot of posters are abandoning ship because it seems only Ec46 matters, OK BYE then see you next winter

I guess this might be settled if the UKMO does not backtrack, as it is predicted to do by many posters here, within the next few days. 

Edited January 29, 2019 by Bricriu

[Swave Snow]

5 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

I guess this might be settled if the UKMO does not backtrack, as it is predicted to do by many posters here, within the next few days. 

It's still not updated 

[lassie23]

12 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Can't believe some posters have giving up on this winter  even the more knowledgeable because ec46 has changed, it's been mostly wrong for this winter in  that HLB hasn't occurred like it said but it got the negative temp anomoly correct for back end of Jan. 

. Despite the fact  UKMO are still going for a very cold spell towards mid feb, a lot of posters are abandoning ship because it seems only Ec46 matters, OK BYE then see you next winter

mid feb now, it will be mid-May soon,

[ScottSnow]

Ive been a member on here since 2003. So ive been through it all. Yes I agree this winter has been rubbish so far but as people have said its only Jan 28th and we are forecast snow THIS WEEK !

End of Feb 2004 - 1ft here in a Gateshead off straight northerly

Feb/March 2005 - two week cold spell

Feb/March 2006 - cold spell and big snow event on the 12th March

Mar 20th 2007 - Potent northerly giving snow to east coast

Mar/April 2008 - several snow events countrywide

Feb 2010 - Multiple snow events particularly big snowfall end of Feb in Scotland 2ft in places

April 2010 - On 1st Possibly biggest single fall of snow that year in parts of Scotland after snowiest winter in years

Just a few snowy episodes that I remember falling later in the winter and into spring.

Probably best example this decade is Mar/Apr 2013 . Nearly a months worth of cold weather coming in spring with big countrywide snow event on 21st Mar and northern hills absolutely loaded with snow.

Theres still plenty of time yet for something to happen. Comes down to luck really and in years like this patience really is a virtue.

Last year we were spoilt with snow all the way through from November to April so this year is more like a normal winter. 

Edited January 29, 2019 by Snow White

[SLEETY]

At work so can't say much, but looks great for many end of week to my untrained eyeand siberian high is building on UKMO, very interesting 

[MattStoke]

GFSP and GFS push. Thursday's snow further north. ICON again has it further south. GFS is almost always over progressive with frontal systems, but don't know about the GFSP.

Edited January 29, 2019 by MattStoke

[AWD]

Just now, MattStoke said:

GFSP and GFS pushes Thursday's snow further north. ICON again has it further south. GFS is almost always over progressive with frontal systems, but don't know about the GFSP.

Here's, roughly, the northern extent of it on the 0z Arpege;

[kold weather]

Well the models are as you were last night pretty much. The GFS suite isn't sharpening up the low, the other models are.

I'd know where the smart money is but I'll wait until the ECM to be totally sure!

[MattStoke]

JMA further north.

Much disagreement just 2 and a half days out.

So, UKMO, ICON and Aperge further south.

GFS, GFSP, GEM and JMA further north.

[kold weather]

Yep Matt no real agreement though again higher resolution models are clocking the LP sharpness whilst the courser ones not so much, with GFSp being somewhat between the two solutions with snow in south and the north.

Ukmo is a decent shift south on its 00z run, northern limit is from the wash westwards! Similar to Arpege.

PS, gem actually only gets the snow into Hull and Liverpool line I mention Ed yesterday.

Edited January 29, 2019 by kold weather