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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

@CreweCold

Arron .....I never made a winter forecast - I don’t have the capability or inclination. So your expectations are down to you. Fwiw, I think we would have had a wintry jan if it weren’t for the magnitude of the ssw which interfered with the tropics forcing. If the lack of winter in your area thus far means you can’t look at a cold period we are currently in and which I see continuing as being worth posting about then that’s your issue, not mine. I can only post what I see, on the modelling and use my experience to say where I think where the means are leading us. 

Last third of dec I thought a more wintry period would kick in post jan 7th. a weekly so before that I amended with a two week delay because of the impact of the ssw on the tropical forcing from the Pacific.  Post the 20th has indeed been more traditionally wintry - granted not deeply cold and we know how the system off the esb interfered with the modelled pattern for late last week. 

 

@ICE COLD

how the friggin hell can you accuse me of hope Casting!!   I have posted the evidence 

ITS COLD AND IT WILL STAY COLD FOR THE RELIABLE AND IT WILL SNOW - I THINK  ITS FIVE YEARS SINCE WE HAD WIDESPREAD JANUARY SNOW - 

 

. Nick is was a joke you donut . I believe everything you say and no you don’t  do hope casting . Why do you think I put these at the start . Silly billy

Edited by ICE COLD
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P-M Seasoned

P-M

Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
Posted
Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

tuesday

Cheers. Canny turnaround for some areas if that plays out like that. 

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Day_9 Enthusiast

Day_9

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Day 10
  • Location: Cardiff
Posted
4 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

That...

Is a perfect chart for snow...

EF51F825-7C1D-407C-A665-1048A52E68E9.thumb.png.28a2042cdc8dd5d11db934756789e134.png

Whats the timeframe/model/run please?

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78/79 Accomplished

78/79

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
Posted
5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

 

Not quite sure why anyone should be arguing tonight...

I suggest those involved should sort it out with a snowball fight...

Screenshot_20190128-215310_Gallery.thumb.jpg.93d6181c20b2abbba9969f60904e8302.jpg

Screenshot_20190128-215253_Gallery.thumb.jpg.bbfe7a13e6bdbd2d53e069b2a7e98b7e.jpg

Screenshot_20190128-215224_Gallery.thumb.jpg.7f0da0d2e8ec192e8fa6e0618b1889b1.jpg

 

Quite agree , it's only the weather for Gods sake, get  some more years on your clock  you soon realise that there are a  lot more things in life to get upset/stress about  apart from a bit of frozen rain falling from the sky. Nice to see it if it comes,  but get it into perspective.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, P-M said:

Cheers. Canny turnaround for some areas if that plays out like that. 

think tues looking better than thurs here, at least for back edge snow

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

My guess, Scandi high as result of link up with current Russian high, leading to locked in cold evolution through Feb, last chart suggests the Murr sausage the eventual destination.  Or, I could be reading too much into mean charts weeks into the future, or maybe dreaming 

They look like weak anomalies to me other than week 2... so about as much use as a chocolate tea pot.. just what we needed :wallbash:

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

. Nick is was a joke you donut . I believe everything you say and no you don’t  do hope casting . Why do you think I put these at the start . Silly billy

Arron wound me up ........

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
3 minutes ago, Day_10 said:

Whats the timeframe/model/run please?

Thurs into Friday

 

BFTP

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

Arron wound me up ........

What Aaron ? Because my name is Aaron too (no joke ) . But I’m the nice Aaron , sorry Crewe

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IanT Aficionado

IanT

Posted
  • Location: Woking
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual works for me...!
  • Location: Woking
Posted

That’s two posts containing charts with no date & time on this page alone....

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igloo Enthusiast

igloo

Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
Posted
7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Weeks 2/3/4

3BDA2CC4-E2F1-4335-859A-6200C5512E4F.thumb.png.bdcb292f11801955f498cbc9fdf37f67.pngE2F77613-2AAB-4CF0-9C54-2DEE4F2AE11A.thumb.png.ebbb96401949fb423eaf251f77fba2ef.png27E4C6B2-E165-4868-BB93-D63B797B91B5.thumb.png.dc300a7f71b211f6bfd2da11a56750d9.png

Pick the bones out of that then ?‍♂️

i have to say i doesnt  look great the dreaded icelandic low looks to be in charge for febuary but as we have seen for the past 6 weeks it hasnt been very good has it

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, IanT said:

That’s two posts containing charts with no date & time on this page alone....

They are for tomorrow night into Wednesday.

That's two posts explaining that as well...

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andymusic Accomplished

andymusic

Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
Posted
15 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Bitter cold March Aaron after an increasingly cooling Feb with E to SE airflow as the Siberian HP slowly nudges NW ...no doubt then re U.K. luck.  Somehow I feel that the SSW result will hit on from second half of Feb but full on in March with a proper beast from a trigger diving LP/ displaced pv......big slow burner this

 

BFTP

big slow burner????????? - lol - if it was any slower we'd be seeing the effects in march 2020 lol

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Vesuvius Contributor

Vesuvius

Posted
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl
Posted

Whoever gets the snow, and I hope we all see some, let’s get out and enjoy it folks.  God, we all spend five months of the year chasing it at ten days plus.  Now we are all within range. Not a part of the UK that doesn’t have a chance this week, so enjoy with families and friends , blame the trains for not getting into work and send those pictures !

 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Seriously, I think the Brazilians have nailed this, they make great coffee, so why not, anyway probably just as likely to be correct as the gfs model

cptec-0-240.png

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PolarWarsaw Seasoned

PolarWarsaw

Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Gutted about the EC46.

Why? 

It’s used as general guidance for patterns. If our weather had turned out like the EC46 had suggested EXACTLY for the last 3 months we would all be buried and waiting for spring. We can’t even give reliable forecasts for weather systems 1 day in advance, let alone worry about month forecasts. 

EC46 is one of many that are practically useless for macro forecasting. The way this winter has gone, the fact it’s moved away from a cold solution has probably just increased our chances!

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FetchCB Aficionado

FetchCB

Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
Posted
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Gutted about the EC46.

How accurate has it been this winter? 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Latest arpege at 60 hours low more elongater and slightly further west!think gfs may have this waay to far north!!

Yep, really hard to know what is right for sure!

Still, it does seem like the frontal position isn't that much different from the ICON really. I'll update the 18z ECM just after midnight as well guys...I've gone this deep into this set-up, no going back now!!

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

think tues looking better than thurs here, at least for back edge snow

Always a little on the negative side ent you lol. Think it’s going to be more than back edge job

as regards to Thursday it’s changed every 6 hours of where it’s going to reach so really wouldn’t worry about that just yet

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

 

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Gutted about the EC46.

No real HLB until late Feb into March?

BFTP

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