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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Rambo said:

Dont know what everyone's expectation was, but all I ever saw was there being a good chance of prolonged deep cold this winter, and that was perfectly accurate. Yes it hasn't happened, but no one said it would definitely happen....key word "chance". So if you were expecting a guaranteed cold period, then more fool you lol. 

This is more a general point, but there does seem to be a growing trend in the forum now to blame anyone who made a prediction about any cold snap, as if its their fault and they're stupid. I'm sure its quite common here given the types of characters that frequent the place, but even still lol

I was one of those predicting a cold Jan...I make no bones and hold my hands up.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Well pub run has ppn further North ecm icon has it more  to the south. Toss a coin time! 

gfs-2-66.png

Edited by snowice
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

GFS meanwhile has a slightly FATTER LP compared to the more elongated ICON.

So on the GFS precip will likely be further north on this run, snow may not be as good in the south.

No closer to knowing what is likely!!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:

18z is a fantastic upgrade for tuesday

 

The gfs snowdepth charts are less enthused - whilst they aren’t likely accurate they actually  show less depth than previous runs 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
10 minutes ago, shaky said:

Looks like an upgrade of snow tomorrow for all.of england!!band comes through slightly later but also slightly slower to clear away!!could be more than just 1-3cms in places!!

but Thursdays gone tits up, on arpege and icon

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Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Who knows what will happen in Feb? It does seem that there is little in the models to suggest anything substantially cold. We were told to be patient, it will come etc. Are those people so confident now?

As much as I want cold and snow, part of me also would like a mild Feb just to serve as a concrete example as to how unreliable long term preeictions can be, regardless of background signals and the EC46 etc.

A lot of egg will be scraped off faces!

 

Look, everyone knows getting a decent cold snowy spell in these parts is nigh on impossible in any given winter.  Hope casting to me isn’t even a derogatory term, it describes those members who are genuinely searching with hopeful optimism for the elusive white gold.  The naysayers that prod and jibe at others in here might be right 80% of the time past day ten but even in failure it’s 100% more fun and rewarding being a Jedi.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I was one of those predicting a cold Jan...I make no bones and hold my hands up.

And I was one predicting a front loaded winter, that was sh*te as well!  

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

but Thursdays gone tits up, on arpege and icon

GFS will save the day. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I was one of those predicting a cold Jan...I make no bones and hold my hands up.

Based on the evidence presented earlier in the month, why wouldn't you have predicted it? It's hardly been warm. Unless you're psychic, how would anyone know it wouldn't turn out as cold as you expected? It's not a competition on here is it?

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Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire
Just now, kold weather said:

No closer to knowing what is likely.

We won't know anything until the future becomes the present and our eyes are glued to the radar, as is often the case with these knife-edge snow events - no use getting het up about one run vs another!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

So at the moment GFS OP is joined by GEM, we will have to see regarding the GFSP. Those two however are by far the most progressive out of the suite.

ICON, UKMO, ECM and ARPEGE are going for a more southerly solution.

Ensembles from ECM broadly support the southern solution, the GFS ensembles are a little more evenly split between north and south.

Crazy evening, the models have gotten FURTHER apart!

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
12 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GFS meanwhile has a slightly FATTER LP compared to the more elongated ICON.

So on the GFS precip will likely be further north on this run, snow may not be as good in the south.

No closer to knowing what is likely.

Probably just end up with a solution between what the latest ICON shows and the models that have it the furthest North. Could say a half-way house really. Think you’re prediction of Wales and the Midlands (especially West Midlands), being the most affected will probably be close to the mark.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Added little bit extra clarity
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

After the Thursday episode moves to the north:

75-780UK.thumb.gif.2cb4068db1f1cda1a4584845cc7913a0.gif81-780UK.thumb.gif.5cb293896be530058b55fa31cc56fad2.gif

The (in)famous M4....

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Also worth noting that there is a big difference in the GFS and others even at 48hrs with the depth of the upper low, the GFS is quite abit stronger with it, whilst the ECM is weaker with it.

If I was to apply my knowledge of model bias (and that's a risky game!) I'd say the GFS is almost certainly too far north/east at the moment. However nothing to say its wrong this time!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
5 minutes ago, IDO said:

After the Thursday episode moves to the north:

75-780UK.thumb.gif.2cb4068db1f1cda1a4584845cc7913a0.gif81-780UK.thumb.gif.5cb293896be530058b55fa31cc56fad2.gif

The famous M4....

Ah well , one man's downgrade is another's upgrade 

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
6 minutes ago, IDO said:

After the Thursday episode moves to the north:

75-780UK.thumb.gif.2cb4068db1f1cda1a4584845cc7913a0.gif81-780UK.thumb.gif.5cb293896be530058b55fa31cc56fad2.gif

The (in)famous M4....

that's the A36 to Frome, 1st left at the roundabout, pick up the A4 to Calne, A342 to Andover and then the A303 to the M3 junction and bob's your uncle......please IDO at least show some semblance of accuracy and plausibility!  

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Thursday’s snow barely making it into the South Midlands on the ICON 18z.

Sure that will lead to many on here calling it a great run while I and many others would miss out completely.

Amazing run

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Have we seen this before, Saturday, pub run T114:

image.thumb.jpg.d617eb4eb4cd0393216a0dd01daecfdb.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c259f6fcf8f50a5dcb5e550b2685eb32.jpg

More chances after the Tuesday and Thursday systems?  I'm inclined to downplay Tuesday, and upplay (if that is a word) Thursday and Saturday for many central areas.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
33 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I was one of those predicting a cold Jan...I make no bones and hold my hands up.

Bitter cold March Aaron after an increasingly cooling Feb with E to SE airflow as the Siberian HP slowly nudges NW ...no doubt then re U.K. luck.  Somehow I feel that the SSW result will hit on from second half of Feb but full on in March with a proper beast from a trigger diving LP/ displaced pv......big slow burner this

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Have we seen this before, Saturday, pub run T114:

image.thumb.jpg.d617eb4eb4cd0393216a0dd01daecfdb.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c259f6fcf8f50a5dcb5e550b2685eb32.jpg

More chances after the Tuesday and Thursday systems?  I'm inclined to downplay Tuesday, and upplay (if that is a word) Thursday and Saturday for many central areas.

I've had a stronger signal for snow in my area on Saturday, than I do tomorrow and Thursday!

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
6 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

 

Not quite sure why anyone should be arguing tonight...

I suggest those involved should sort it out with a snowball fight...

Screenshot_20190128-215310_Gallery.thumb.jpg.93d6181c20b2abbba9969f60904e8302.jpg

Screenshot_20190128-215253_Gallery.thumb.jpg.bbfe7a13e6bdbd2d53e069b2a7e98b7e.jpg

 

Are these for Thursday?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Weeks 2/3/4

3BDA2CC4-E2F1-4335-859A-6200C5512E4F.thumb.png.bdcb292f11801955f498cbc9fdf37f67.pngE2F77613-2AAB-4CF0-9C54-2DEE4F2AE11A.thumb.png.ebbb96401949fb423eaf251f77fba2ef.png27E4C6B2-E165-4868-BB93-D63B797B91B5.thumb.png.dc300a7f71b211f6bfd2da11a56750d9.png

Pick the bones out of that then ?‍♂️

My guess, Scandi high as result of link up with current Russian high, leading to locked in cold evolution through Feb, last chart suggests the Murr sausage the eventual destination.  Or, I could be reading too much into mean charts weeks into the future, or maybe dreaming 

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